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Forecast: Here’s a weather system to keep an eye on

Covering the period from November 25 to December 4, 2019

This map shows the October temperature anomalies across most of the world’s land masses, with red indicating above-average temperatures and blue, below average. You can’t help but notice the big blob of blue or colder-than-average temperatures centred over western North America.

It’s been another solid week for the weather models as they were pretty spot on with the forecast, only being a day off on the two to five centimetres of snow that fell last Wednesday.

For this forecast period, the weather models are starting to show some signs of our weather pattern becoming a little more active. So, if you are looking or hoping for a little more snow as we head into December, you might just get lucky. Fortunately, it doesn’t look like we’ll see any significant outbreak of cold air.

To start off this forecast period, the weather models show a weak area of low pressure tracking through southern and central Manitoba on Monday and Tuesday, bringing with it clouds along with the chance of a little light snow. Temperatures look to be pleasant, with daytime highs around -5 C and overnight lows in the -12 C range.

After this weak early system, we will have to watch as a piece of energy works onshore over California. This energy will spawn a broad area of low pressure across the southwestern U.S. during the second half of the week. The weather models then show a piece of the low ejecting to the northeast on Friday, bringing with it a chance of some measurable snow, with current indications that we could see between three and five cm. Temperatures look to continue on the mild side with highs forecasted to be around -4 C, and overnight lows, -10 C.

The main area of low pressure is then forecast to quickly push out of the U.S. southwest over the weekend. Currently, most of the weather models keep the system to our east, with only the far southeastern corner seeing any chance of snow. Just like last week, we should always keep a watchful eye on these systems as they are the main snow makers for our region.

Behind this low we’ll see some arctic air build south as an area of arctic high pressure drops to Alberta and an area of low pressure wobbles over northern Ontario. Expect to see sunny to partly cloudy skies along with daytime highs in the -10 C range and overnight lows around -20 C.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -14 to 0 C; lows, -24 to -9 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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