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Forecast – for Sep. 30, 2010

As September comes to an end and we enter the first true full month of fall, it looks like Mother Nature will be giving us a little bit of payback. After what was for most of us a cool and wet September, it looks like October will start off sunny and warm.

A ridge of high pressure that gave us windy and warm conditions late last weekend is forecast to rebuild during the second half of this week. This should result in plenty of sunshine along with temperatures at or higher than the usual temperature range for this time of year.

For the first time in a long time, it looks like high pressure will dominate for a whole forecast period. That means that we should see an extended period of warm, sunny weather during the day and clear, cool nights. After all, it is now October and we are seeing less and less daylight each day. This in turn means longer nights and more time for the air to cool down. That said, the chances for freezing temperatures looks to be quite low, with the best chance being around the weekend.

The medium-range weather models show this ridge of high pressure will be broken down by a trough of low pressure pushing through our region on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Confidence in this trough of low pressure is not that high, as the models seem to trend toward keeping the ridge of high pressure in place. So who knows? Maybe we’ll see a really nice October this year, which is something we haven’t really seen since 1998.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs:8 to 19 C. Lows:-2 to 7 C.

Chance of precipitation falling as snow: Five per cent.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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