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Forecast – for Oct. 21, 2010

If you’ve been watching the “Chance of precipitation falling as snow” statistic located at the bottom of the forecast each week, you may notice it really begins to jump up now that we are heading toward the end of October. I bring this up because it is starting to look like we may have to pay the price for the nice October weather we’ve been experiencing.

The weather models show high pressure remaining in place for much of this week and possibly into the weekend. Under the ridge of high pressure we should continue to see plenty of sunshine, with daytime highs near the top end of the usual temperature range for this time of the year. Overnight lows will be cool but should not drop much below the freezing mark.

To start next week the weather models show a fairly strong area of low pressure building to our west and moving through southern and central regions late on Monday and into Tuesday. This system will bring some rain to southern and central regions, but far northern areas may see snow mixing in, especially during the overnight hours.

Confidence beyond this period is very low as the weather models have been jumping back and forth with what will happen once this low passes by. One of the three different outcomes I’ve seen over the last few days is that we will see cooler but fairly dry weather move back in; this is the one that I think most people want.

The other two outcomes look like they want to bring an early taste of winter to our region. One has the early-week low stalling and intensifying over Ontario, which would bring in cold air and snow. The other outcome has another strong low moving in, which would also usher in an early-season snow. While this is a long way out, we will have to keep an eye on things.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs:2 to 15 C.Lows:-6 to 3 C.

Chance of precipitation falling as snow: 50 per cent.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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