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Forecast – for Nov. 25, 2010

Another week has gone by and it looks like the weather models were fooled by Mother Nature. Last week I said the models were showing snow for our region late in the week and we did see some significant amounts of snow, but I also pointed out we would likely see things dry out after that as the main area and track of low pressure should stay to our south. Well, the main storm track has shifted by a couple of hundred kilometres and for some of us this will make all the difference.

A weak Colorado low which brought a second shot of snow to southern and eastern regions of Manitoba last weekend looks like it might be followed up by another Colorado low starting sometime on Wednesday. Currently the models are showing this system being stronger and slower moving than the previous one. This means there is the potential for significant snow accumulations across portions of agricultural Manitoba, with the heaviest amounts likely in the east. Winds also look like they could become a problem across all areas with this system creating blowing snow and possibly near-blizzard conditions, especially late Wednesday and into Thursday.

Once this low finally pulls out on Friday, we will see some cooler air move in, but the models are not pointing toward a strong cold air outbreak. Confidences in the weather models beyond this period are not very good right now, as they are changing their forecasts almost daily. The latest model run shows another chance of snow for our region early next week as weak low pressure passes by. Hopefully the models are correct with their temperature outlooks as they continue to keep the really cold air well to our north.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs: –14 to 0 C.Lows:-25 to -8 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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