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Forecast – for Nov. 18, 2010

As we slowly move into winter it looks less and less like we will see a dramatic switch to full winter conditions. As each day goes by, the medium-range weather models show drier and drier conditions, along with only a moderate cooling trend.

Earlier this month it was looking like the second half of November would turn out to be cold and snowy but now I’m not so sure. Don’t get me wrong, though – we are moving into winter and things are going to get colder but it looks less and less likely that we will see an early/winter deep freeze.

A storm system early in the week which affected the western Prairies will weaken and dive well south of us. This system will allow some cooler air to work into our region during the middle of the week. A second storm system is then forecast to move across southern and central Manitoba on Friday. Not all models are in agreement with this system, but there is a chance for some measurable snow Friday, with around five centimetres a good bet.

Cold arctic high pressure will build in behind this system and will bring the coldest temperatures of the season over the weekend. High and low temperatures over the weekend will be near the bottom end of the usual temperature range for this time of the year.

Next week we will see a battle between arctic high pressure to our north and a large disorganized area of low pressure to our south. If the high pressure wins out we will remain on the cool side. It currently looks like we will remain on the edge of the low pressure, which will mean cloudy skies and milder conditions.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs:-11 to 2 C.Lows:-20 to -6 C.

Chance of precipitation falling as snow: 95 per cent.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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