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Forecast – for Nov. 11, 2010

After some near-record-breaking warm weather this past weekend, it looks like more seasonable weather is poised to move in during this forecast period. The question will be whether we’ll remain dry, or will we see snow accompany the cooler conditions?

The ridge of high pressure that brought the beautiful weather over the weekend will have moved off to our east by the middle of this week. This will allow a developing area of low pressure to move in from the west on Wednesday. The models are having some difficulty predicting just where and how strong this low will be. Currently, it looks like western and northern regions of agricultural Manitoba have the best chances of seeing precipitation from this low. Precipitation will start off as rain, but will likely change to snow late on Wednesday as colder air works its way south. This system should be out of the region by late Thursday.

Behind this system we’ll see colder air move in from the north. Highs will only make it within a couple of degrees of the freezing mark in the south starting on Friday, and will likely stay in this range for the remainder of this forecast period. Farther north, highs will be a little cooler, especially if this region receives snow earlier in the week. Overnight lows will be in the -5 C to -10 C range, depending on the amount of cloud cover.

The weather looks as if it will remain quiet to start next week and each model run shows it a little warmer. There is a chance for a storm system to affect our region around the middle of next week but confidence in this system is low.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs:-6 to 5 C.Lows:-16 to -2 C.

Chance of precipitation falling as snow: 90 per cent.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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