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Forecast – for May. 12, 2011

It’s another tough forecast as a large and slow-moving area of low pressure will be the dominant weather maker for our region during the first half of this forecast period. It looks like our cool, wet spring weather will continue at least for a little while longer. As we mentioned last week, a large area of low pressure did form to our south over the weekend, bringing showers and rain to most regions for an extended period of time to start this week. The models are struggling over how long it will take this low to finally pull out. Some of the models are leaning toward Thursday or Friday, while other models have a trough hanging back over us until at least Saturday. Either way it looks like a cloudy, cool and wet week.

By Sunday, high pressure should finally be in place, bringing plenty of sunshine along with warmer temperatures. For next week, the weather models are again having trouble figuring things out. They are trending toward a switch in the overall pattern with milder temperatures building in. The problem is, one model run has a nice, dry, warm forecast and then the next model run shows wetter conditions and not quite as mild. I think the main storm track will push north during this period and we will see warmer temperatures move in next week.

As the storm track moves northward, we may see the odd shower or thunderstorm around mid-week as an area of low pressure tracks across the northern Prairies. Temperatures should be warm and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see our first 25 C day next week.

Highs:12 to 24 C. Lows:-1 to +9 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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