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Forecast – for Jun. 30, 2011

There has been a definite change in the weather pattern over the last couple of weeks. It has been a subtle change, not one of those “holy cow” type of changes where we go from one type of weather pattern to another just like that. Now the big question is, will we see this pattern stick around, will it switch back to the spring pattern, or will the pattern continue to slowly change into something else? My bet is on the last one.

This forecast period is going to seem, well, like summer. Temperatures should be in the mid-to upper 20s for highs and overnight lows will be in the low to mid-teens. Along with the warm temperatures there will be chances for showers and thunderstorms every couple of days.

The second half of this week will see a strong area of low pressure developing to our west. Instead of it moving through southern or central regions it looks like it will take a more northerly route. As it pushes north there will be a good chance of seeing scattered showers or thunderstorms late Thursday into Friday with the best chances over more northern regions.

Over the weekend high pressure will dominate, with plenty of sunshine expected along with warm temperatures. A weak area of low pressure will try to push through on Monday or Tuesday, but this should only bring a mix of sun and clouds along with the odd thunderstorm. The models then show another area of low pressure developing to our southwest around the middle of the week. This time, instead of it getting all wound up and bringing tonnes of rain to our region like they have over the last few months, the models show it staying weak and sliding by to our south. I think this will be the true test of whether we have truly switched into a new weather pattern.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs:21 to 30 C.Lows:9 to 17 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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