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Forecast – for Aug. 4, 2011

For this forecast period it appears we’ll stay in the same general weather pattern that we’ve been in now for over a month. With this pattern we see weak upper-level ridging in place, while at the surface, weak areas of low pressure form to our west and track either well to our north or to our south. Now, you would think that being in the same pattern would make forecasting easy, but with this pattern it isn’t. With all the areas of weak low pressure it is difficult to predict where and when they will push east and just how much cloud and thunderstorm activity they may bring.

This is exactly the problem for this forecast period. A weak area of low pressure is forecast to drift through our region on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing with it some clouds and scattered showers and thundershowers. Temperatures should remain mild and we’ll likely still see more sun than cloud with this system.

High pressure should dominate the region over the weekend. We should see plenty of sunshine, along with high temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s. A weak low moving through northern Manitoba, with a trough of low pressure to the south of it, will come through sometime late in the weekend and may trigger the odd thunderstorm on Sunday.

Next week looks like it will start off hot and sunny, as high pressure builds back in. Low pressure will once again take shape to our west. This will allow a good southern flow to develop, which means an increase in humidity. The models then deviate from our current pattern and strengthen this low as it pushes through central regions. If this happens we could see more widespread rainfall on Tuesday. Cooler air will then push in behind the low during the middle of the week, bringing more seasonable temperatures.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs: 21 to 30 C. Lows: 9 to 16 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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