Forecast: Dry and relatively mild weather ahead

Covering the period from November 18 to November 27, 2019

This map shows the forecasted temperature anomalies for December across North America, as predicted by the CFS monthly forecasting model. The warmest temperatures, compared to average, are predicted to be centred just to our south, with most of southern and central Manitoba expected to see December temperatures averaging about 1.5 to 2.5 C above average.

With the weather pattern becoming a little more stable, the weather models seem to be handling things a little better. Last week’s forecast was pretty darned good as we saw cold air to start off, with some areas dropping into the -20s C before milder air worked in later in the week. Even warmer air worked in over the weekend, but the really mild Pacific high wasn’t able to push as far north, which resulted in slightly cooler conditions to end the last forecast period.

For this forecast period, it looks like we’ll see more of the same: dry weather, but with near- to even above-average temperatures instead of near- to below-average temperatures. To start off this forecast period, the weather models show a couple of weak areas of low pressure tracking through our region, bringing a mix of sun and clouds along with the chance of some light flurries. Best chance of seeing measurable snow (a couple of centimetres) would be on Thursday.

Over the weekend and into the first half of the following week, it looks as though we’ll be between systems. The weather models are not showing any strong pushes of cold air or any storm systems anywhere near our region. Expect sunny to partly cloudy skies along with fairly mild temperatures. Daytime highs are forecast to be within a couple of degrees of 0 C, with overnight lows around -10 C.

The weather models do show a fast-moving Colorado low tracking just to our east late next week, bringing a chance of some significant snow to eastern regions. Confidence in this system is low, but as usual, it’s always a good idea to keep a wary eye on these systems.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -9 to +3 C; lows, -18 to -5 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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