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Forecast: Cooler weather on deck, but not cold

Covering the period from October 14 to 23, 2019

This map shows the amount of precipitation that has fallen across the Prairies since Sept. 1 as a departure from the long-term average. It has been a wet fall for a large portion of the Prairies, with only the northern edges of the agricultural regions seeing below-average amounts. The wettest areas have been across southeastern regions, where record to near-record rainfalls have occurred.

Well, besides getting last week’s brief warm-up correct and the cold front that moved through last Wednesday, the weather models kind of missed the big storm system — or did they? If you remember back to last July, my deadline for the forecast changed from Monday (two days before you typically read this) to Friday (five days before you read this). On Friday, the weather models did not show the storm system, but by the weekend the models were developing a storm system and ended up actually being very consistent with its development and track, right up until it affected our region.

The start of this forecast period will see a weak area of low pressure track southeastward across southern and central Manitoba on Tuesday, bringing clouds along with a few showers. Weak high pressure will build in on Wednesday and Thursday, meaning a return to sunshine along with warmer temperatures. Expect daytime highs pushing 12 C with overnight lows around 0 C.

Another weak low is forecast to move through central Manitoba on Friday, bringing more clouds than sun, along with the chance of a few showers. Over the weekend it looks like we’ll be between systems, which means we will most likely see a mix of sun and clouds and maybe the odd shower, especially over extreme southern regions, but overall it should be fairly nice.

Late in the weekend and into early next week, the weather models show another strong area of low pressure sliding by just to our southeast. Currently, it looks like this system will miss us, but the way this fall has been going, I would definitely keep an eye on it!

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 4 to 17 C; lows, -5 to +4 C.

Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 25 per cent.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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