Forecast: Cool weather and an unsettled start

Covering the period from June 10 to June 17

This weather graphic shows the total amount of precipitation that fell across the Prairies during the 30-day period ending on June 3, using percentiles. It was a wet 30 days across much of Alberta, with most regions reporting above-average to extremely wet conditions. Across large parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba was the opposite story, with below-average to extremely dry conditions.

The weather models did a fairly decent job with last article’s general weather outlook. I am hoping, for this outlook — at least for the first half — that the models are off, as it looks like a cool and wet start.

There is a little bit of uncertainty with the early part of this forecast, as it’s quite an interesting setup. The area of low pressure that pushed northward into Saskatchewan from June 6 to 8 is forecast to get caught up in the leftover circulation or energy from tropical storm Cristobal as it drifts northward into Ontario. Should this play out, this will cause the Prairie low to shift eastward and intensify around Wednesday, June 12. A trough of low pressure is forecast to linger behind this low, bringing clouds, showers and cool temperatures. In fact, the weather models show overnight lows in the low single digits on the morning of Thursday, June 11. All this will depend on the development and movement of tropical storm Cristobal, so as I indicated earlier, not a lot of confidence in this part of the outlook.

Once this system moves off, the models show an area of high pressure building in by the weekend, bringing plenty of sunshine and a return to summer-like temperatures. Expect daytime highs to be back in the mid-20s, with overnight lows in the low to mid-teens.

To begin the following week (June 15 to 17), the models show another large area of low pressure developing to our southwest that will slowly work in our direction during the week. Ahead of this system we should see a push of very warm air, with daytime highs pushing 30 C on Monday, before clouds and showers move in on Tuesday and Wednesday, cooling our temperatures, with highs forecast to be around the 20 C mark. This system is forecast to move out by the second half of the week, bringing a return to sunny, summer-like weather.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 19 to 28 C; lows, 6 to 15 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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