For those of you who regularly read my forecasts, you will know I hate to write forecasts in the spring and fall — but especially in the spring. The yearly fight between cold and warm air in the spring often makes it difficult to accurately predict the weather beyond about five days. Since I write my forecast on a Friday for a five-day period that doesn’t actually begin until the following Wednesday, it’s not surprising these forecasts sometimes go off the rails. In the last forecast, the first part went well, but things really went off the rails during the second half.
For this forecast period, it looks like the overall weather pattern will be predominantly out of the northwest, which translates into colder-than-average temperatures with minimal chances of significant snowfall. To start, the weather models show a weak area of low pressure tracking southeastward across central Manitoba into northwestern Ontario. This low will bring a slight chance of snow on Wednesday before arctic high pressure builds in on Thursday, with clearing skies and colder temperatures. Expect daytime highs in the -8 C range, with overnight lows around -18 C.
Over the weekend we will see a weaker area of high pressure build in from the northwest, keeping our region relatively clear but with continued cooler-than-average temperatures. Expect daytime highs to warm slightly under the strengthening spring sunshine with highs around -4 C and overnight lows near -14 C. These pleasant but cool conditions will linger into the early part of next week before the weather models show a strong cold front dropping southeastward around Wednesday. Confidence is low, but should this play out, expect colder readings to end next week, with daytime highs dropping back down to the -12 C range and overnight lows pushing -20 C.
Looking further ahead, the weather models point toward milder weather, just in time for spring break!
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -11 to +2 C; lows, -23 to -8 C.