Forecast: Active summer weather pattern developing

Issued May 23, 2016 – Covering the period from May 25 to June 1, 2016

Last week’s forecast played out pretty close to what was expected, with plenty of warm air and even some thunderstorms thrown in for good measure. The trouble is, the muddled forecast for this upcoming forecast period hasn’t got any clearer as we move into a more active pattern.

At the surface there is no dominant weather feature that will influence our forecast. In the upper atmosphere, weather models show a fairly strong and persistent upper low sitting over the northwestern U.S. This upper low will be the main controlling factor for our weather over the next couple of weeks, bringing a lot of warm air along with plenty of chances for precipitation.

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The general flow around this upper low will give us an overall southerly to southwesterly flow. This will help to keep our temperatures near the top end of the usual temperature range for this time of year. Just how warm each day will get will depend on cloud cover, with sunny days seeing highs in the upper 20s and cloudy days in the low 20s. Overnight lows will also be mild, with most nights cooling off into the low teens.

There will be several systems embedded in this southerly to southwesterly flow that will bring chances for showers and thundershowers. It’s difficult to predict when each of these systems will affect our region, so I think it’s easiest to say we could see the chance of precipitation every day during this forecast period. Due to the scattered nature of the rainfall, some areas may be wet, while other areas may stay fairly dry, but I do think the chance of everyone seeing some rainfall is pretty high.

Looking further ahead, the models show this active and warm pattern continuing right through to the first week of June.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 16 to 27 C; lows, 3 to 13 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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