The weather models did a pretty good job forecasting the deep late-summer low that brought significant rains to large parts of Manitoba two weekends ago and into the first half of last week. The brisk northerly flow behind the low did keep temperatures on the cool side, with daytime highs struggling to make it into the low 20s during the second half of last week. Over the long weekend, the forecast started to fall apart, as energy moved out ahead of Monday’s low, which was then followed up by the main low on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The first half of this forecast period is looking fairly nice. The weather models show an upper ridge developing to our west that should bring mainly sunny skies from Wednesday to Friday, along with daytime highs in the low to mid-20s. Over the weekend the weather models show an area of low pressure tracking by to our south that is expected to spread an area of showers and rain across our region. Confidence in this part of the forecast is low. Temperatures look to continue on the mild side, with daytime highs continuing in the low 20s and overnight lows in the 5 to 8 C range.
The weekend low is then forecast to track into northwestern Ontario early next week. The wraparound flow around this low may bring a mix of sun and clouds along with the chance of some showers. Best chances for seeing showers will be across the eastern half of our forecast region. Looking further ahead, the weather models, while not showing any big heat waves, are also not showing any big pushes of cold air right through to around the middle of September. But as usual, that is still a long way off, so it’s anybody’s guess!
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 16 to 26 C; lows, 5 to 13 C.