As usual, at this time of the year it becomes increasingly difficult to create an accurate forecast. We are in the middle of the transition between summer and winter, and as the two seasons battle it out, trying to figure out exactly what will happen is usually pretty difficult.
That said, it appears that the next 10 or so days will be fairly tranquil, at least compared to what they could be. The forecast starts off with high pressure building to our southwest and low pressure to our northwest, and it ends in exactly the same way.
The big weather picture has an area of low pressure sitting to our northeast and another area of low pressure sitting off the northern coast of B.C. To our southwest is a fairly large but relatively weak area of high pressure. This places our region under a predominantly northwesterly flow that will keep temperatures from getting too warm. The area of high pressure to our southwest will keep most storm systems to our north during this forecast period. The best chance for any showers or flurries looks to be next weekend, as an area of low pressure moves through northern regions of Manitoba.
For those of you who will be going out trick-or-treating next Monday, the forecast currently looks pretty good. It s looking like we ll have clear to partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the 5 to 8 C range. Looking further ahead, the models are still not showing any signs of winter moving in, but do show us continuing to slowly cool down. For those of you looking for snow, there are some signs in the really long-range forecasts of something happening during the second week of November.
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 1 to 12 C. Lows, -8 to 2 C.
Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 50 per cent.
Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park. Contact him with your questions and comments at [email protected]
WEATHER MAP -WESTERN CANADA
Copyright 2011 Agriculture &Agri-Food Canada
Accumulated Precipitation (Prairie Region)
April 1, 2011 to October 20, 2011
Prepared by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada s National Agroclimate Information Service (NAIS). Data provided through partnership with Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, and many Provincial agencies.
131 -162 mm 162 -193 mm 193 -224 mm 224 -256 mm 256 -287 mm 287 -318 mm 318 -349 mm 349 -381 mm 381 -412 mm 412 -443 mm 443 -474 mm 474 -505 mm 505 -537 mm 537 -568 mm 568 -599 mm 599 -630 mm 630 -661 mm 661 -693 mm
Extent of Agricultural Land Lakes and Rivers
Produced using near real-time data that has undergone initial quality control. The map may not be accurate for all regions due to data availability and data errors.
This issue s map shows the total amount of precipitation that has fallen across the Prairies so far this growing season (April 1 to Oct. 20). You can see the really wet areas were in southwestern Manitoba, southeastern Saskatchewan, far-western Alberta, and northwestern Alberta. The driest region has been over eastern Alberta and western Saskatchewan.