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Expect a dry start to the month

Weekly weather forecast, Nov. 4, 2013

Last week’s forecast turned out pretty good, with the only issue being the area of low pressure forecast to track across the southern Prairies last weekend. The low did develop as expected, but it tracked a good 200 to 300 km farther north than originally expected. This allowed warmer air to push farther north, bringing fairly mild temperatures to southern and central regions over the weekend and keeping any snow well to our north.

This forecast period looks to start off cool and quiet, with no major storm systems anywhere near our part of the world. With the lack of snow cover, any day we can get a little sunshine should allow temperatures to climb to around the 3 to 5 C mark. There is a weak system expected to track quickly through our region on Friday or Saturday, bringing with it clouds and a few showers or maybe some flurries depending on the exact track and timing of the system.

Behind this system we’ll be in a west-northwesterly flow that will keep temperatures right around average from Sunday through to Wednesday. There will be a few weak systems moving through this flow that will keep skies partly to mostly cloudy during this period, and the odd shower or flurry cannot be ruled out.

The weather models have been fairly consistent with bringing an upper-level low into the Pacific Northwest sometime early next week. This low is expected to help develop a strong surface low in the Colorado/Wyoming area by Tuesday or Wednesday. The models are all keeping this storm to our south, but at this time of the year it is always wise to keep an eye on these storms.

Looking further ahead, the weather models aren’t showing any strong push of cold air right through to at least Nov. 20, but — and there is always a “but” — I’ve also seen the models switch from a warm to a cold pattern quicker than you can say “snow!”

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -3 to 7 C; lows, -11 to -2 C. Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 80 per cent.

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