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Dry pattern to continue, but with cooler temperatures

It looks like this forecast period will start off on the mild side, but if the long-range models are correct it could be the last mild weather we see for a while.

Low pressure tracking across the northern Prairies will bring a mild flow of southerly air during the middle and later part of this week. Under this flow we should see temperatures running at or even above the usual temperature range for this time of the year. By the weekend the low will have pushed off to the east and we’ll then see our winds switch to the north or northwest. This will allow colder air to move in. High temperatures over the weekend will likely be in the -10 to -15 C range with overnight lows in the low -20s.

Another area of low pressure is then forecast to track across the central Prairies early next week. With this low taking a slightly more southern track there will be a better chance of seeing some light snow with this system. Temperatures will warm up a bit as the system tracks in our direction, but again the more southerly track will limit the warming.

Behind this system the weather models show a large area of arctic high pressure dropping southward. As this high builds in we’ll see clearing skies along with much cooler temperatures. By late next week I wouldn’t be surprised if we see the first -30 C reading of the winter. If you are dreading the appearance of really cold weather it should be noted that not all of the models show this, so confidence in this part of the forecast is not that high.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -22 to -5 C. Lows, -32 to -14 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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