Cool, Wet September Ahead? – for Sep. 9, 2010

Another August has come and gone and from a weather point of view I think we can label this month as “variable” or “the month of change.”

If we look strictly at the numbers for the month, both Winnipeg and Dauphin had a slightly warmer-than-average month. Winnipeg had a mean monthly temperature of 18.9 C, about half a degree above the long-term average. Dauphin’s mean monthly temperature for August was 17.9 C which was 0.6 C above average. Brandon was the cool spot once again, with a mean monthly temperature of 17.7 C, 0.3 C below average. Overall, I would have to say that temperature- wise, August came in right around average for agricultural Manitoba.

While the overall temperature during August came in around average, that value really did not do a good job describing temperatures during August. August 2010 seemed to have two different types of days: really hot or downright cool. The first 12 or so days of the month were fairly hot, with daytime highs on a number of days approaching or even surpassing the 30 mark. Temperatures then cooled down during the middle of the month when we saw several days in a row struggle to make it into the mid-teens for highs. This cool weather was replaced by periods of warm/hot weather during the last 10 days of the month.

Precipitation during August was also variable across the region as you can see in this week’s weather map. If we just look at our three main centres, Winnipeg ended up being the wet spot, with a total of 144 millimetres of rain, nearly 70 mm above average. Brandon recorded 73.6 mm, about five mm above average. Over at Dauphin they seemed to miss out on most of the rain during August as they only recorded 29.2 mm of rain, which is about 30 mm below average.

Most of August’s rain came after each of the two hot spells. The first rainy period occurred around the 13th of the month and brought an end to the very warm start we had to August. The next major rainfall event occurred near the end of the month, again bringing an end to a week or so of fairly warm/hot

weather. Overall, if we were just going to go with these three stations to summarize precipitation, we would have to say that it was near average for August, but if we look at this week’s map that shows the total amount of rainfall during the month, I think it is safe to say that most places came in above average.

WHO CALLED IT?

Who was able to predict the near-to slightly above-average temperatures and above-average amounts of precipitation for August? Looking back, it appears that my favourite long-range forecaster called it right. TheCanadian Farmers’ Almanachad a generalized forecast (generalized by me) which called for near-to slightly above-average temperatures and precipitation. So I guess congratulations are in order for them!

After a fairly miserable start to September, the big question is, will this cool, wet weather be the norm during the month or can we expect to see warm, dry weather move back in? At Environment Canada, they think we will see warmer-than-average conditions, but that warm weather will be accompanied by near-to above-average amounts of precipitation.

Interestingly, that’s it for warm September forecasts. All three of our remaining long-range forecasters (theOld Farmer’s Almanac, Canadian Farmers Almanac,and myself here at theCo-operator)are calling for cooler-than-average temperatures during September, along with above-average amounts of precipitation. I sure hope EC has it right and the rest of us are wrong, but as I always say, only time will tell.

Next week we’ll take a look back at the summer of 2010 and then peer ahead to see what the fall and winter might have in store for us. Stay tuned!

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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