Last week’s forecast didn’t turn out quite as well as I would have hoped. High pressure never really made it into our region and temperatures didn’t really warm up like they were supposed to. As a result, any precipitation that did fall ended up falling as snow, and over some western regions it ended up being a fair bit of snow.
For this forecast period all eyes will be focused on a Colorado low that is forecasted to affect our region over the weekend. The weather models have been predicting this low for over a week now; the last time I saw them be this consistent with a storm system this far in advance was back in April of 1997. So, I would say that there is a very good chance for a significant winter storm this upcoming weekend. The only question is, exactly where will the heaviest amounts of snowfall?
Currently the weather models show this low taking a classic path from Colorado northeastwards to pass just east of Lake of the Woods sometime late in the weekend. This would place most of southern and south-central Manitoba in the main snow zone. If this low does pan out as indicated, then we could expect snow to begin as early as Friday evening, intensify on Saturday, and then slowly taper off on Sunday. It wouldn’t surprise me if some regions see as much as 15 to 25 cm of snow from this system.
Once the system pulls off to the northeast we’ll likely see the coldest temperatures of the fall-winter move in. If significant snow does hit our region, instead of hitting farther to the north or south, then temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will likely only make it to around -5 C for highs, with overnight lows in the -15 C range.
Looking further ahead, the models are hinting at some more active weather later next week. It looks like winter might be moving in to stay.
Usual temperature range for this period:
Highs: -5 to 7 C Lows: -13 to -2 C
Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 85 per cent