Forecast: Cold with a few chances of light snow

Covering the period from November 4 to November 13, 2019

This map shows the total amount of precipitation that fell across the Prairies during the month of October. Looking at the map you can see that Manitoba was the wettest region, thanks to the powerful Colorado low that hit this area around the middle of the month. Over much of Saskatchewan and Alberta it was much drier, with some areas only seeing a couple of millimetres.

Normally I would begin the forecast with a quick review of the previous forecast, but since I messed up hitting my deadline last week you didn’t see my best forecast ever!

Just kidding, but it was a pretty good forecast. Remember, it’s not really me doing much of the forecasting, I am simply analyzing the different weather models, following what they are predicting, and then making a few choices as to which weather model I think is doing the best job.

For this forecast period it looks like we are heading into a mostly dry, but cold pattern, as we will see several shots of arctic high pressure slide southwards across Western Canada.

The first area of arctic high pressure will drop southwards on Tuesday, bringing a brief period of clearing skies and cooler temperatures. This high will be quickly followed by a second and much stronger arctic high forecasted to build into our region on Thursday. In between these two highs the weather models are showing a weak Alberta clipper zipping through on Wednesday, bringing cloudy skies along with a quick shot of light snow. Currently, it doesn’t look like we will see much if any accumulation.

This second arctic high will slide to our southeast by Saturday, placing us into a westerly flow over the weekend. This will open the door for a slightly warmer westerly flow to develop. This westerly flow will also allow for some Pacific moisture to spread eastwards, bringing increasing clouds by Sunday along with the chance of some light snow. This system should move out quickly as a third arctic high drops southwards on Monday. This high looks to be pretty strong, so we should expect to see mainly sunny skies along with cold temperatures. Expect daytime highs to only be in the -10 C range and overnight lows dropping to around -20 C, with the potential for some even colder readings in some areas.

Usual temperature range for this period: highs: -4 to 7 C; lows: -13 to -2 C. Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 90 per cent.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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