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Forecast: Cold, wet weather to continue

Issued September 24, 2018: Covering the period from September 26 to October 3

This map shows the total amount of precipitation that has fallen across the Prairies over the 30 days leading up to Sept. 20, as a percentage of the long-term average. Southern and central regions of Manitoba have seen significant rainfall, with large areas receiving amounts ranging from 115 to over 200 per cent above average. Northwestern regions of agricultural Manitoba, along with southeastern Saskatchewan, continue on the dry side, with amounts ranging from 85 per cent down to less than 40 per cent of average.

The only issue with last week’s forecast was the temperature. Thanks to a bit of a stronger push of cold air than was forecast, temperatures for much of last week’s forecast period were a good 5 C cooler than expected. It was really noticeable last weekend as heavy cloud cover, showers, rain and even some wet snow kept temperatures within a few degrees of freezing.

Looking ahead to this forecast period, it looks like we are stuck in this cold and wet pattern for at least one more week. The weather models show an area of low pressure dropping southeast out of the Yukon on Wednesday. This system will bring showers or light rain to most regions on Wednesday. Things could get a little messy overnight Wednesday and into Thursday as cold air pours in behind the low. Expect the showers to turn into periods of wet snow, with some light accumulations possible.

Weak arctic high pressure will build in on Friday, bringing us a mix of sun and clouds over the weekend and daytime highs forecast to be in the 7 to 10 C range, with overnight lows in the 0 to -4 C range. It also looks like it will be a little breezy on the weekend, making it feel even colder.

We will then have to watch an area of low pressure that is forecast to develop over the northwestern U.S. and track eastward during the first half of next week. Currently, the models show us getting brushed by the northern edge of this system. With cold arctic high pressure in place to our north, we could see our first widespread accumulating snowfall of the season. Confidence in this part of the forecast is low, but it is worth watching.

More cold arctic air is then forecast to move in behind this low, which will keep temperatures running near to below the usual temperature range for this time of the year, right through to the end of next week.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 10 to 21 C; lows, -1 to +8 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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