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Cold, warm weather both trying to win out

Weather forecast for Week of Dec. 16, 2013

Despite fairly weak areas of low pressure affecting our part of the world, last week’s forecast ended up playing out pretty much as expected. The big question now is whether the warmer weather will move in for the Christmas holidays.

After a weak area of low pressure brought some light snow to most of southern Manitoba late last weekend, it looks like another weak low will follow a similar path around the middle of this week, bringing another chance for some light snow. This low will be quickly followed by an area of high pressure, but this high is not originating from the high Arctic, so temperatures shouldn’t get too cold. By Friday or Saturday another weak area of low pressure is forecast to rapidly cross southern and central areas, bringing with it a light dusting of snow. This area of low pressure will once again be followed up by a fairly strong area of high pressure. This high will allow temperatures to get fairly cold next weekend, with highs only expected to be in the -17 to -20 C range and overnight lows in the -26 to -30 C range.

The confidence in the weather models starts to drop off as we approach Christmas. They’ve been consistent with bringing a slightly stronger area of low pressure through our region sometime between Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, but they haven’t been consistent with the track and strength of this system. Let’s just say there will be a fairly good chance of some snow during this period, with a very slight chance of significant amounts.

Looking further ahead, the weather models keep trying to bring in warm weather, with a forecast of high temperatures in the -5 to -10 C range for the four to six days following Christmas. With these milder temperatures come the chance for some more snow.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -19 to -3 C; lows, -30 to -12 C.

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