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Beautiful Fall Weather To Continue

Co-operator contributor

A nother month has come and gone and I m not sure about you, but September sure seemed to fly by. I m not sure why the month went by so fast maybe it was because school started but personally, I think it has to do with the beautiful weather we had. If it weren t for the couple of nights of killing frosts, we could have said it was a perfect month, weather-wise. For those of us who love summer, we had plenty of summer-like days, but for those of us who look forward to those cool fall days the overnight lows were nice and cool. The places that needed a little bit of rain seemed to get it during September, while those places that had seen more than their fair share of rain saw very little.

Looking at the September weather numbers for Manitoba, it appears all regions saw above-average temperatures during the month. The Winnipeg region saw a mean monthly temperature in September of 14.2 C, which was nearly 2 C above average. Western Manitoba was also warmer than average during September, with Brandon recording a mean monthly temperature of 13.1 C, which was 1.2 C above the long-term average. This is the third straight month that southern and central Manitoba have seen temperatures more than 1.0 C above average.

Precipitation during September was light over western regions, with Brandon only recording 29.2 millimetres of rain a little more than half of what s average. Out east, a couple of systems brought some more significant rains, with the Winnipeg region recording 67.5 mm of rain, about 15 mm above average. While eastern areas finally saw above-average amounts of rain, this did very little to alleviate the drought conditions. With the soil being so dry, these rains didn t make it down into the soil more than about five centimetres and most soils are still powder dry.

If we take a quick look further west, we would find that conditions were even warmer (relatively). While both Saskatoon and Regina saw mean monthly temperatures that were around what Winnipeg and eastern regions saw during September, their September average temperatures are usually lower than ours. Put these two things together and Saskatchewan saw well-above- average temperatures, with both Saskatoon and Regina coming in nearly 3.5 C above average. Precipitation was also very light in these regions, with both locations recording less than 20 mm of rain during the month.

In Albert a , after having an average to slightly-below- average summer, temperatures also soared in September. Edmonton had a mean monthly temperature of 12.2 C, which was 2 above average, while Calgary had a very warm mean monthly temperature of 14.6 C, which was nearly 4 above average. Precipitation was very light during this period, with most regions seeing less than 10 mm of rain.

Who called it?

Now on to the fun part: who was able to predict the warm and dry September weather? Well, I think this might be a first: it seems that every forecast except theCanadian Farmers Almanaccalled for a warmer-and drier-than-average September!

OK, now on to the most important part : what is the long-range forecast for October? Will we see a continuation of our warm, dry weather and have a repeat of last October, when temperatures averaged over 2 above average, or will the bubble finally burst and the cold weather move in?

According to Environment Canada, the warm weather will continue in October, but they are starting to lean toward average amounts of precipitation. Over at the Old Farmer s Almanac they are singing a much different tune: they call for slightly below average temperatures during October, along with below-average amounts of precipitation. The Canadian Farmers Almanac appears to call for below-average temperatures for the month, as it mentions colder and unsettled several times over the month. It also seems to lean toward above-average amounts of precipitation, with the talk of unsettled and stormy weather.

Finally, here at the Co-operator,I m at a little bit of an advantage. I can see that the forecast for the first week of October is for extremely warm conditions, so barring a near-record-setting cold snap later in the month, it is pretty much guaranteed that October will end up with above-average temperatures. I do feel that warm conditions will prevail for much of the month, but we do have to realize that the sun is rapidly decreasing in intensity at this time of the year and it will be pretty hard to continue seeing high temperatures later in the month like we see now. I also believe the dry weather will continue in October. Now, as usual, we just have to sit back and wait to see what happens.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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