Well, once again, both the weather models and I struggled with the forecast. Thanks to a huge area of low pressure, the holiday long weekend turned out to be much cloudier and wetter than originally expected, unless you live in extreme western Manitoba. The low that put the damper on the long weekend was an extremely slow-moving system that developed over the U.S. southwest early last week, bringing several rounds of severe thunderstorms to the Midwest along with heavy snows to Colorado. This low ended up being so slow moving that the area of high pressure which should have kept the low to our south slid off to the east, allowing the low to take a much more northerly route.
For this forecast period we’ll begin with another slow-moving upper low, but this time it will be coming from the west. This is going to be another tough one to figure out as the weather models keep changing how they are handling this feature. Currently, it looks like this low will move into Saskatchewan on Thursday, pushing a warm front across our region. This will bring with it clouds and showers. The low will then drift northeastward into northern Manitoba on Friday. After that, it seems to be anyone’s guess as to what this low will do. The latest model run shows the low weakening over northern Manitoba on Friday and Saturday before the remnant upper low drops southward into southern Manitoba on Sunday. This low is then forecast to merge with a storm system over the Great Lakes on Monday.
What does this mean for our region? It looks like the Friday-to-Monday period will see a mix of sun and clouds along with the chance of showers each day. Temperatures don’t look to be too bad, with daytime highs in the upper teens to low 20s and overnight lows in the 7 to 10 C range. It does look like it will clear out to start next week as a broad but weak ridge of high pressure builds in. Under the sunny skies we should see temperatures warm up a bit, with daytime highs expected to be in the 21 to 25 C range.
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 16 to 18 C; lows, 3 to 13 C.