After last week s record-breaking warmth, the average temperatures expected during this forecast period are going to feel a little on the cold side, especially since we will not see much sunshine at least to start.
The first part of this forecast period is going to be dominated by a large area of low pressure slowly moving past our region. This area of low pressure is forecast to slowly develop to our southeast and then meander into northeastern Canada by the weekend. This low will keep our region under cloudy skies for the most part, but most of the precipitation should stay well to the southeast. The best chance of seeing any precipitation will be from Wednesday into Friday, as a lobe of energy rotates around the large parent low and crosses our region.
By the end of the weekend and into next week, the weather models show the central ridge of high pressure trying to rebuild itself. Currently, the models are keeping this ridge fairly weak, but it should be strong enough to keep most of the western storm system well to our north. This should mean more sun than clouds for most of next week, along with high temperatures in the mid-teens, near the top end of the usual temperature range for this time of the year.
These above-average temperatures look like they will continue into the following week as the overall pattern shows no signs of changing. The only real change is the fact that the sun is getting weaker, and cold air is building to our north, which means that we ll be slowly cooling down, no matter how nice the weather remains!
Usual temperature range for this period:
Highs:6 to 17 C.Lows:-4 to 5 C.
Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 20 per cent.
Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park. Contact him with your questions and comments at [email protected]
WEATHER MAP -WESTERN CANADA
Copyright 2011 Agriculture &Agri-Food Canada
6 Month (180 Days) Accumulated Precipitation (Prairie Region)
April 7, 2011 to October 3, 2011
Prepared by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada s National Agroclimate Information Service (NAIS). Data provided through partnership with Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, and many Provincial agencies.
123 -152 mm 152 -180 mm 180 -209 mm 209 -238 mm 238 -267 mm 267 -295 mm 295 -324 mm 324 -353 mm 353 -382 mm 382 -410 mm 410 -439 mm 439 -468 mm 468 -497 mm 497 -525 mm 525 -554 mm 554 -583 mm 583 -612 mm 612 -640 mm
Extent of Agricultural Land Lakes and Rivers
Produced using near real-time data that has undergone initial quality control. The map may not be accurate for all regions due to data availability and data errors.
This issue s map shows the total amount of precipitation that has fallen across the Prairies over the last six months. From the map you can see that after a fairly wet start in the spring, most areas have been fairly dry. The wettest areas are found in southwestern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan along with western Alberta. While eastern Manitoba saw dry conditions during this period, it was a fair bit drier over a large area of western Saskatchewan and eastern Alberta, where fewer than 200 millimetres of rain fell during this period.