Forecast: Above-average temperatures, little or no rain

Issued May 14, 2018: Covering the period from May 16 to May 23, 2018

This map shows the total amount of precipitation that has fallen over the Prairies this past half-year. Dry conditions have prevailed across most regions, the driest being over the eastern Prairies, with below-average values stretching to the west and northwest into north-central Alberta.

Last week again played out about as close to what was forecast as could be expected. The biggest issue with the forecast was the very cold overnight lows we saw late last week. Cold temperatures were predicted, but the extreme overnight lows were a result of very dry air along with very dry surface conditions that allowed for perfect radiational cooling.

Unfortunately, for this forecast period it continues to look as though we will remain on the dry side. It is an interesting weather pattern that we’ve been “stuck in” lately. High pressure to our north has been keeping any precipitation systems to our south. While this pattern usually results in cool temperatures, the high pressure, combined with dry conditions, has allowed for warm daytime temperatures.

We will see a bit of a northward push of moisture during the second half of this week, which will result in increasing humidity along with a mix of sun and clouds. The best chance of any showers or thundershowers looks to be late Thursday and into Friday as a trough of low pressure slides by to our south. Currently, it looks like the most rain any region might see from this system is around 10 mm.

High pressure will then dominate through the long weekend, bringing with it sunny skies and daytime highs in the low to mid-20s and overnight lows in the 5 to 10 C range. Winds look to be fairly light over the weekend, making for some very nice late-spring weather.

As the weekend high pressure pulls off to the east during the first part of next week, expect winds to increase from the south. Along with the southerly winds, expect moderation of temperatures, with daytime highs forecast to push into the upper 20s to around 30 C, with overnight lows in the 10 C range.

Looking further ahead, the weather models hint at some moisture moving into our region late next week, but they have been hinting at this for several weeks now and we have seen nothing, so don’t hold your breath!

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 13 to 26 C; lows, 1 to 10 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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