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Forecast: Above-average temperatures expected

Issued December 10, 2018: Covering the period from December 12 to December 19

This map of global net radiation balances shows where the Earth has net gains or losses of energy from radiation over the year.

After seeing one cold day last Thursday into Friday, the expected mild Pacific air moved in over the weekend, bringing a return to seasonable temperatures. A few areas were able to see the really mild air mix down on Sunday, which allowed temperatures to rise above the freezing mark.

It looks like these mild temperatures are going to stick around over the next week or two as we find ourselves in a split flow across North America. The southern stormy branch is staying well to our south, over the southern U.S., with a weaker storm track over northern Canada, which is helping to keep the really cold air bottled up well to our north. In between, the weather looks to remain relatively warm and dry.

This forecast period begins with a building ridge of high pressure to our west, which is forecast to push eastward, bringing with it nice mild temperatures with daytime highs expected to be around -2 C. We might see a few clouds and maybe a light flurry on Thursday as the ridge pushes in, but skies should clear quickly. Over the weekend, an area of low pressure is forecast to track across the central Prairies and into northern Manitoba. Warm air being pulled up ahead of the low may allow temperature to rise above 0 C on Saturday before a cold front drops southward behind the low on Sunday. Currently, it looks like this front will be weak, with only a few clouds and a slight cool-down as our winds become northerly.

Next week looks to start off with weak high pressure sliding by to our south. This will provide us with a mild westerly-to-southwesterly flow, allowing temperatures to quickly rebound back to above average. Expect daytime highs in the -2 to -5 C range with overnight lows around -15 C.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -19 to -2 C; lows, -28 to -11 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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