It looks more and more likely that the second half of this week will be fairly wet across most of southern and central Manitoba. The main questions are just how much rain, where will it fall, and how long will it last?
The weather models have been fairly consistent with developing another cut-off low over North Dakota or Montana by Thursday of this week. What they can’t seem to agree on is just where the rain will fall and how long the low will stick around. The current trend is for widespread rain to develop across southern Manitoba sometime on Thursday and then lift northward into central Manitoba by Friday. This would give a break in the rain for southern regions on Friday. Temperatures will not be that cold, but with heavy cloud cover and rain, highs will only be in the mid-teens.
The next tricky part is just how quickly or slowly this system will move. The last cut-off low took over three days to decide to move out. Fortunately, this low looks like it will start to pull off to the East late on Friday, pulling most of the rain with it. We’ll likely still see some scattered showers on Saturday before clearing works its way in from the West. Saturday night into Sunday morning will be fairly cool, but it doesn’t look like we will have to worry about frost at this time.
Sunday and Monday look to be sunny, as high pressure builds in. A developing area of low pressure to our west will start to pull in some fairly warm air and increasing humidity by mid-week. While this will make it feel quite summer-like, with highs expected to be in the mid-20s, it will also bring with it an increasing chance of thunderstorms.
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 16 to 27 C; lows, 4 to 13 C.