A slight chance of thunderstorms

Issued: Monday, July 6, 2015 – Covering: July 8 – July 15, 2015

This map shows the total amount of precipitation that has fallen across the Prairies so far this growing season compared to historical values. You can see how dry most of the Prairies have been, with a large portion of agricultural Alberta, Saskatchewan and northwestern Manitoba seeing extremely low to record-low amounts of rain. The only two wet areas are in the extreme northwestern part of Alberta and extreme southern Manitoba, where amounts range from high to very high.

Last week’s forecast played out pretty much as expected, with an area of low pressure pushing through a cold front, which brought a fairly wide outbreak of thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. Cooler temperatures moved in to start this week, which brought some relief from the warm and humid conditions.

A typical slack and muddled summer weather pattern will be in place for much of this forecast period. High pressure will be over our region on Wednesday, but will quickly move off to the southeast. We’ll then see a couple of weak systems move through the northwesterly flow during the second half of the week. The first system could trigger a few thundershowers on Thursday, with a second chance of thundershowers late Friday or Saturday. Temperatures will slowly moderate during the week with daytime highs by Friday pushing into the upper 20s, depending on the amount of smoke still lingering around.

Over the weekend the western ridge is forecast to break down, which means our general flow will become more westerly. This should help to clear out any leftover smoke, allowing for plenty of blue skies and warm temperatures. There will be a slight chance of some thunderstorms late Sunday over southern regions as a weak low passes by to our south.

Next week will begin with an area of high pressure building in from the northwest. This, combined with a building upper-level ridge over central North America, should bring dry weather to start the week, along with warm to hot conditions by later in the week. This is a long way off and plenty can still happen, but there is at least a chance of seeing high temperatures in the 33 to 35 C range sometime during the next week.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 22 to 31 C; lows, 10 to 18 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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