With little or no snow covering much of central and southern Manitoba, temperatures were able to climb well above anticipated highs last week. Several temperature records fell as a large blocking pattern brought plenty of sunshine along with mild Pacific air. These mild conditions look like they’ll persist a little longer before more seasonable temperatures move back in.
This forecast period begins with a large but weak area of low pressure crossing the central Prairies. This low will bring a mix of sun and clouds to southern regions, with the heavier clouds and flurries confined to more northern locations. Daytime highs will be well above freezing ahead of this system on Wednesday, before some cooler air builds in on Thursday. Over the weekend, the weather models have been fairly consistent on developing an area of low pressure over the central U.S. on Friday, then tracking that low northeastward into Ontario on Saturday and Sunday. Where they haven’t been consistent is in the track or strength of the low. The latest model run shows the low only brushing extreme southern and eastern regions, bringing the possibility of some light snow.
No matter the exact track of this low, it will draw in colder air behind it as arctic high pressure tries to build southward. We should expect to see clearing skies and colder temperatures Sunday and Monday, with daytime highs expected to be around -8 C and overnight lows in the -16 C range. While this might seem cold, it is right around average.
Looking further ahead, the weather models show milder weather moving back in by the middle of next week. The general pattern also looks like it will become a little more active, so those hoping for some holiday snow might still be in luck.
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -17 to -2 C; lows, -27 to -11 C.