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Forecast: A couple of chances for rain

Issued July 16, 2018: Covering the period from July 18 to 25

Prairie precipitation counts for the 30 days ending July 15, 2018.

The only glitch in last week’s forecast was the slightly cooler-than-expected air that moved in behind a cold front last Monday. Otherwise, the forecast played out pretty close to what the weather models predicted.

To begin this forecast period, the area of high pressure that brought us some relief from the heat will have moved off toward the Great Lakes. This will place us on the western side of the high and — due to the clockwise rotation of air around the high — in a deep southerly flow. Temperatures and humidity levels will increase, with daytime highs expected to be back into the low 30s. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop over Montana and track across the Dakotas on Thursday. This low will spread clouds, showers and thundershowers across our region during the day on Thursday. Temperatures will remain warm, but without much sunshine daytime highs will only be in the mid-20s.

Skies should clear out on Friday as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Sunny skies and light winds should continue on Saturday as this high passes right over southern and central Manitoba. Temperatures will be nice with daytime highs expected to be in the mid- to upper 20s and overnight lows in the mid-teens.

The forecast gets a little tricky at this point. Currently, the weather models show an area of low pressure organizing to our southwest. This low will spread some clouds, along with the odd shower or thundershower, across our region starting Sunday. The models then show a secondary area of low pressure forming right over us on Monday. This low, should it form, will bring cloudy and showery weather for both Monday and Tuesday before high pressure builds in on Wednesday, bringing a return to sunny skies. With the clouds and showers on Monday and Tuesday, expect temperatures to be on the cool side, with daytime highs only around 20 C and overnight lows in the 10 to 14 C range.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 23 to 31 C; lows, 13 to 18 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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