Forecast: A couple of chances for precipitation

Issued June 5, 2017 – Covering the period from June 7 to June 14, 2017

This map shows the total amount of precipitation that fell across the Prairies during the 30 days ending on June 1 as a departure from the long-term average. You can quickly see that much of southern and central Saskatchewan and Manitoba have been dry during this period. The driest regions are in southern Manitoba, where a significant portion of the region saw departures from average that were greater than 35 mm.

Last week’s forecast didn’t quite play out as expected, but it was able to capture the overall pattern. The big surprise was just how warm it was able to get, even though the pattern wasn’t exactly set up to produce record-breaking heat.

This forecast period will begin with an area of low pressure tracking through northern Manitoba, with a trailing cold front slowly pushing through southern and central regions. This front will likely kick off numerous showers and thundershowers during the day on Wednesday, with eastern regions possibly seeing these showers sticking around early into Thursday. Temperatures will be a little cooler with the cloud cover on Wednesday, with highs around 23 C. Temperatures on Thursday will continue on the cool side as cooler air works in behind the cold front, but under sunny skies temperatures will still be in the low to mid-20s.

High pressure will begin pushing in during the day on Thursday and will quickly slide off to our east on Friday. At the same time, a large area of low pressure will be developing to our west. The flow around these two systems, along with the strong summer sunshine, will help to quickly boost our temperatures back toward the 30 C mark on Friday and Saturday. As the western low organizes and tracks eastward over the weekend, we’ll likely see several chances for thunderstorms. Currently, it looks like late Saturday and into early Sunday morning will be the best chance for rain, with some of the thunderstorms possibly being severe.

High pressure looks to build back in for much of next week, bringing plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures. Expect daytime highs to be in the mid-20s with overnight lows in the low to mid-teens.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 19 to 28 C; lows, 6 to 15 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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