Sometimes it just takes a few small changes to totally alter a forecast and this is what happened last week. The Alberta clipper came through a little earlier and quicker than expected, with only a weak push of arctic high pressure sliding in behind it. The best part is that this allowed our temperatures to remain milder than anticipated.
This forecast period will begin with another Alberta clipper system, but this one will race down from northern Alberta. This system will track rapidly through Manitoba on Wednesday or on Wednesday night, bringing with it a quick couple of centimetres of snow, mostly to central regions. Late on Friday and into Saturday another clipper will slide across southern sections of Manitoba, which will bring a chance for another couple of centimetres of snow. Temperatures will remain mild as warm air is pulled northward ahead of these systems.
For the first half of next week the confidence in the forecast is pretty low. The weather models have been consistent with developing a large storm system over Colorado on Monday and then tracking it east or northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. At first the models were keeping this storm system well to the south of us, but the latest runs have started to edge it northward. Chances are this system will stay to our south but we should keep an eye on it.
Looking further ahead, the weather models are keeping us between cold arctic air circulating around an arctic vortex centred near Baffin Island and a ridge of mild high pressure over the western U.S. This means we’ll likely continue to see our temperatures swing between mild and cool as these two systems struggle for dominance.
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -22 to -5 C; lows, -33 to -14 C.