Forecast: A cool start, then summer returns

Issued June 10, 2019: Covering the period from June 12 to 19

This map shows the departure from the average temperature during May across the Prairies. With the exception of northwestern Alberta, it was a cooler-than-average month, with the coldest readings, compared to average, found across south-central Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba.

On the good news side of things, the weather models were pretty accurate with last week’s forecast. The western low developed as forecast and followed the predicted northerly track over the weekend. It did bring in warmer-than-expected air last Friday, with some areas of central and eastern regions seeing daytime highs pushing 35 C. The only disappointment from this system is that we did not see widespread significant rainfall. While I am sure some areas did see some decent amounts, most areas only saw between five and 10 mm.

To begin this forecast period it looks like an upper-level low over Hudson Bay will dominate our weather, and for those of you who follow my weather forecasts and weather discussion, this means cool temperatures, with sunny starts to the day and afternoon clouds. Daytime highs will struggle to reach 20 C, with overnight lows dropping into the 4 to 7 C range. Under this pattern, frost-prone areas will need to be watched. This pattern looks to last right through to Friday before this upper low breaks down and is replaced by a more summer-like pattern.

Over the weekend an area of low pressure is forecast to form over central Saskatchewan and drop southeastward. This will bring increasing clouds on Saturday along with the chance of showers and thundershowers. The best chance of rain with this system looks to be over western and southern regions. Things should clear out by Sunday as weak high pressure moves in behind the departing low.

Monday through to Wednesday of next week look to be quite a mixed bag of weather. Strong high pressure will be in place to our north and the weather models show several weak disturbances sliding southeast along the southern edge of the high. This will bring a mix of sun and clouds each day with the chance of the odd shower or thundershower. Temperatures look to be near average with daytime highs in the low to mid-20s and overnight lows near 10 C.

Summer weather is forecast to continue into the following week, so hopefully this is the last of the cold weather until fall.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 20 to 29 C; lows, 7 to 16 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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