Forecast: A break from dry and hot may be en route

Issued June 12, 2017 – Covering the period from June 14 to June 21, 2017

This map shows the total amount of precipitation that has fallen across the Prairies so far this growing season compared to historical values. So far it continues to be a dry start to the growing season across nearly all of Manitoba and much of Saskatchewan, with wide areas reporting values that are very low to extremely low.

I’m not sure what’s up with the weather over the last month or so, but whatever is happening, the weather models are sure having a tough time figuring it out! For those of you who monitor the weather models, you know what I am talking about. One day the medium-range forecast is calling for sunshine and hot weather, the next day it’s clouds and showers; add another day and, you guessed it, back to sunshine and hot weather.

With this in mind, here is what the weather models suggest will happen over the next week or so. This forecast period will begin with the dreaded upper low. This low is forecast to develop to our southwest on Tuesday and then slowly move northeastward on Wednesday and Thursday. It doesn’t look like this will be a heavy rain event, but we will likely see periods of showers or thundershowers rotate through our region as the upper low moves through. The latest model runs even show some sunny periods mixing in, but overall, I think cloudy skies will dominate. Along with the clouds we will also see cooler temperatures, with daytime highs expected to be in the 20 to 23 C range or cooler if cloudy skies and showers dominate.

This upper low should move out of our region by Friday, allowing for clearing skies and slightly milder temperatures. These clear skies look to be short lived as a weak and fast-moving area of low pressure is expected to zip through during the day on Saturday, bringing with it a mix of sun and clouds along with a good chance of showers.

Behind this low the weather models show an area of high pressure briefly building in Sunday and Monday before another fast-moving area of low pressure slides through during the middle of next week. Once again, it doesn’t look like we’ll see a lot of rain from this system; instead, we should see scattered showers and near-average temperatures.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 20 to 29 C; lows, 7 to 15 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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