The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported the crop at 34 per cent good to excellent as of April 12, down one point from the previous week and 13 points below last year. The worst conditions were in Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas at below 20 per cent, where dry conditions have affected quality. Meanwhile, 11 per cent of the nation’s crop was headed, compared to the five-year average of seven per cent.

• For daily market updates, visit The Western Producer Markets Desk

Scott Capinegro, hedging specialist for AgMarket.net, said that just like the weather, crop ratings are likely to change. He added that plantings for other crops could also be affected.

“We might have seen the top end for corn acres and we might have seen the low end for (soybean) acres for all we know. If it stays wet, there will be switching and there always is,” Capinegro said.

The USDA reported corn planting was at five per cent complete, compared to the five-year average of four per cent. For soybeans, six per cent of the crop was seeded, triple the average. Projected corn and soybean acres are 95.3 million and 84.7 million, respectively.

“The Delta is going in pretty well for beans and it seems like that’s what farmers are doing again. If you can go, put beans in as fast as you can first,” Capinegro said.

Prices for Kansas City hard red winter and Minneapolis spring wheat varieties rose on April 13 and 14 due to dry conditions over much of the U.S. But the trade is keeping one eye on the ongoing war in Iran.

“Just the last few days, it seems like grains are trying to break away from the oil market,” Capinegro said. “I think that’s because we’re going to start being more concerned about planting conditions, the rain and dryness.”

The post CBOT Weekly: U.S. trade monitoring crops, weather appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

Dmitry Patrushev, Russia’s deputy prime minister, recently told reporters that 97 per cent of Russia’s winter wheat crop was in normal condition as of Feb. 5 compared to 87 per cent at the same time last year.

“These are very good results,” he said.

SovEcon is forecasting 83.8 million tonnes of Russian wheat production in 2026-27 as yields fall back to average levels.

That would be a significant drop from the 90.9 million tonnes produced in 2025-26.

WHY IT MATTERS: All eyes in the wheat market are focused on the condition of the world’s winter wheat crops.

SovEcon estimates that Russian farmers planted 38.53 million acres of winter wheat, a 1.3 per cent drop from last year. Ukraine planted 12.84 million acres, a four per cent increase.

“Overall crop conditions are good both in Russia and Ukraine,” SovEcon analyst Andrey Sizov said in an email.

“A recent cold snap most likely didn’t lead to any winterkill but improved snow cover, which would help plants at the start of vegetation.”

Stateside

DTN lead analyst Rhett Montgomery was wondering if a January cold snap hurt the fortunes of the U.S. winter wheat crop, but that does not appear to be the case.

“It is still looking fairly good across the U.S.,” he said.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture released winter wheat crop ratings for select states on Feb. 4.

The Kansas crop was rated 61 per cent good to excellent. There were no ratings for Texas and Oklahoma, which are the second and third largest winter wheat producers.

However, only 19 per cent of Montana’s crop was rated good to excellent.

The January cold snap did not get much ink in the state crop progress reports, but another issue did.

“Drought and dryness were mentioned in almost every key (winter wheat) growing state,” said Montgomery.

The U.S. Drought Monitor estimates that 43 per cent of the U.S. winter wheat area is experiencing some level of drought heading into spring.

Montgomery said the “green-up” period is usually March or April.

“If we don’t start seeing some reversal of that drought then, we could have some issues as we move into summer,” he said.

Farmers in the U.S. planted 32.99 million acres of winter wheat, including 23.5 million acres of hard red winter wheat. Montgomery said that is the sixth or seventh smallest winter wheat crop since 1909.

Supply vs. demand

The world doesn’t need a lot more wheat.

World wheat ending stocks outside of China and India are estimated at 135.4 million tonnes in 2025-26, according to the USDA.

That would be the largest stocks in eight years.

Fortunately, global demand has been strong. The USDA is forecasting 900 million bushels of exports for the U.S.

Montgomery thinks that is attainable, given that export commitments were running at 18 per cent above last year’s levels as of the end of January.

Another positive sign for the wheat market is that the USDA slightly decreased its global production number in the February WASDE report, the first time since the August report where there wasn’t an increase.

The post World’s winter wheat crops look good for now appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

There are suggestions that more spring wheat will be planted this spring compared to that seeded in 2025/26. Statistics Canada is set to release its initial 2026-27 seeding estimates on March 5. About 20.6 million wheat acres (except durum) are expected to be planted, compared to 20.5 million last year. Forecasts for durum, of 5.8 million to 6.4 million acres, were lower than last spring’s 6.532 million.

The Canadian Grain Commission reported wheat exports for the week ended Feb. 22 at 408,300 tonnes, greater than the 220,300 tonnes shipped the previous week. So far this marketing year, 12.645 million tonnes of wheat have been exported, compared to 11.531 million tonnes shipped at the same point one year ago.

Canadian Western Red Spring (CWRS) wheat was up C$2.00 to C$5.40 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Average prices were between C$260.70/tonne in southeast Saskatchewan to C$289.60 in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels ranged from between C$39.70 to C$68.60/tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

Accounting for exchange rates and adjusting Canadian prices to U.S. dollars (C$1=US$0.7308), CWRS bids were from US$190.50 to US$211.60/tonne. Currency adjusted basis levels ranged from US$9.30 to US$30.40 below the futures. If the futures were converted to Canadian dollars, basis levels would be C$6.80 to C$22.20 below the futures.

Meanwhile, Canadian Prairie Red Spring (CPRS) prices gained C$4.00 to C$10.50 per tonne. The lowest average bid for CPRS was C$240.50 in southeast Saskatchewan, while the highest average bid was C$265.40 in southern Alberta.

The average prices for Canadian Western Amber Durum (CWAD) were up C$2.70 to C$3.40 per tonne with bids between C$282.80 in southwest Saskatchewan to C$294.80 in western Manitoba.

The May spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts are based off of, was quoted at US$6.1325 per bushel on March 3, up 17.75 cents.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPRS in Canada. The May contract rose 11.25 cents at US$5.7825/bu.

The May Chicago soft red contract was up 0.75 of a cent at US$5.74/bu.

The Canadian dollar tacked on 0.13 of a cent to close at 73.08 U.S. cents on March 3.

The post Prairie Wheat Weekly: Western Canadian bids move upward appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

Scott Capinegro, hedging specialist for AgMarket.net, said May corn was approaching a February low but is setting itself up for a March rally. As for wheat, he said funds were short and technicals were conducive for rallies the past week.

Soybeans’ rise can be attributed to rallying soyoil, of which the May contract had a weekly gain of 1.58 cents per pound. But the White House is expected to announce its biodiesel fuel blend in the coming days.

“That one could end up being ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact,’” he said. “We’re racing to meet a self-imposed deadline by the end of March. We’ve already put that rally into the market.”

Exports also should be giving support to corn and soybeans, said Capinegro.

“The corn exports continue to be good, but the corn market does act sloppy. We are breaking to the lower end of the range (in March corn). As for soybeans, it’s China, China, China,” he said, adding that the U.S. is waiting for Lunar New Year celebrations to end before shipping more beans to China.

The United States Department of Agriculture will host its 2026 Agricultural Outlook Forum from Feb. 19 to 20 in Arlington, Va. Capinegro said many are expecting projected corn acres to be trimmed while those for soybeans are raised. However, one grain’s loss could benefit two major crops.

“Are they taking into consideration (the loss) of a lot of rice acres down south?” he said. “They’re going into corn and beans.”

The post CBOT Weekly: Choppy futures looking for direction appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

The Canadian Grain Commission reported 230,300 tonnes of wheat exports for the week ended Feb. 1, down from 353,300 tonnes the previous week. So far this marketing year, 11.5 million tonnes of wheat were exported, compared to 10.5 million at the same time last year.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its monthly supply/demand estimates on Feb. 10, with 2025-26 wheat ending stocks raised by five million tonnes at 931 million, exceeding trade expectations. Global carryout was tightened by 740,000 tonnes at 277.51 million, below the trade’s pre-report estimates.

Canadian Western Red Spring (CWRS) wheat was down C$0.10 to up C$2.40 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Average prices were between C$249.10/tonne in southeast Saskatchewan to C$279.60 in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels ranged from between C$40.20 to C$70.80/tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

Accounting for exchange rates and adjusting Canadian prices to U.S. dollars (C$1=US$0.7383), CWRS bids were from US$183.90 to US$206.50/tonne. Currency adjusted basis levels ranged from US$2.40 to US$25 below the futures. If the futures were converted to Canadian dollars, basis levels would be C$1.80 to C$18.40 below the futures.

Meanwhile, Canadian Prairie Red Spring (CPRS) prices lost C$1.80 to C$2.60 per tonne. The lowest average bid for CPRS was C$224.30 in southeast Saskatchewan, while the highest average bid was C$248.80 in southern Alberta.

The average prices for Canadian Western Amber Durum (CWAD) were up C$2.80 to C$3 per tonne with bids between C$278.50 in southwest Saskatchewan to C$289.60 in southern Alberta.

The March spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts are based off of, was quoted at US$5.6825 per bushel on Feb. 10, down 0.75 of a cent.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPRS in Canada. The March contract declined 4.25 cents at US$5.3050/bu.

The March Chicago soft red contract was down 0.5 of a cent at US$5.825/bu.

The Canadian dollar moved up 0.58 of a cent to close at 73.83 U.S. cents on Feb. 10.

The post Prairie Wheat Weekly: Spring wheat declines, durum higher appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

Overnight low temperatures in Kansas, Oklahoma and Kansas dropped to the -15 to -20 C range for three consecutive days.

Although these temperatures are significantly below normal, they were not sufficient to cause extensive winterkill.

Prior to the arrival of the cold temperatures, snow covered most of the three states with amounts ranging from five to 15 centimetres. The snow cover certainly would have protected the wheat crop from the coldest temperatures.

Temperatures in the SRW growing areas were not as severe as in the southern Plains, with overnight lows mostly in the -10 to -15 C range.

The complicating factor for SRW wheat in the region from central Illinois to Arkansas is that freezing rain fell across the area, which has two impacts on the winter wheat crop:

• Firstly, the ice facilitates the transmission of the cold temperatures to the wheat plants more efficiently than snow.

• Secondly, the freeze-thaw action of the ice on the plant can cause mechanical damage to the wheat. This type of winterkill damage is usually not extensive over wide areas of a growing region.

It doesn’t appear that these conditions have been enough to cause significant damage to the crop.

Temperatures in the western winter wheat growing areas of Russia were also cold this past week, but temperatures in the Volga Valley and Caucasus region only dropped to the -5 to -15 C range for only two days. This was not enough to put the crop in any winterkill danger.

Wheat markets have struggled to gain any momentum since the end of October.

There was some hope that these winterkill threats may at least cause a rally in the futures markets. The bad news is that the rally was short lived and the nearby contracts have moved lower after the temperatures began to warm up.

The forecast calls for continued cold weather in the SRW growing areas, but there is no threatening temperatures in the forecast.

Fundamentals continue to drive the wheat market as record global production pushes prices lower.

The bad sign is that even a threat to the winter wheat crop in two of the largest exporters was not enough to push markets higher.

It appears that traders are going to remain on the short side of the wheat market until threats to crop production turn to actual crop losses.

That means wheat markets are likely to trade sideways until the crops emerge from dormancy in March.

The post Winterkill threat minimal for Northern Hemisphere crops appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

March soybeans rose 10.5 U.S. cents per bushel over the past week at US$10.75, while March corn gained 8.25 cents at US$4.30/bu. March Chicago wheat surged 28.25 cents to close at US$5.36/bu., its Kansas City hard red wheat counterpart added 22.25 cents at US$5.4225/bu. and March Minneapolis spring wheat was up 10.25 cents at US$5.74/bu.

Jack Scoville of The Price Futures Group in Chicago said cold temperatures ahead of the storm’s arrival may have damaged crops in winter wheat-growing areas, putting a weather premium on prices.

“(Winterkill) was probably the biggest impact,” Scoville said, adding that lower winter wheat prices earlier this month were setting up for a rally eventually.

U.S. President Donald Trump recently threatened a number of countries, including Iran, Greenland and Canada, reducing confidence in the U.S. dollar. As a result, the currency weakened against its international counterparts. However, a lower dollar means cheaper exports and increased buying interest.

For the week ended Jan. 15, U.S. soybean and corn export sales reached marketing-year highs of 2.45 million tonnes and 4.01 million, respectively, said the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Wheat export sales exceeded trade expectations for the week at 618,100 tonnes.

“Both those numbers are very high. They did support commercial demand and they are supporting commercial demand now,” Scoville said. “If the U.S. dollar stays weak, I imagine (export) sales will be stronger.”

He anticipated prices to become stronger in the next week and beyond. The March soybean contract could surpass the US$11/bu. level just in time before the South American soybean harvest enters the markets. The March corn contract could move up to US$4.45/bu, Scoville added.

“(March Chicago) wheat could move back to (November 2025) highs, US$5.60 to US$5.65/bu. Prices would be up across the board,” he said.

The post CBOT Weekly: Prices to continue higher appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

Tom Lilja, an analyst for Progressive Ag in Fargo, N.D., said the January report will be especially important as it typically finalizes the yield figures for the current growing year. This year, he expects reduced yields for U.S. corn and soybeans.

“There was a fair amount of rust pressure in Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee, through some of those areas,” Lilja said.

As for wheat, current and future crops may also see declines.

“Probably the biggest expectation (for wheat) is that the U.S. is set to lose (1.3) million acres of planted wheat this year just due to poor market price,” he added. “There were a number of in-state reports that showed very sharp declines in (winter wheat) conditions … We saw a decline of 26 per cent (good to excellent) in Colorado. Nebraska was down 14 per cent, Oklahoma was down nine per cent, Texas was down six per cent and Kansas was down two per cent.”

Lilja also heard that safrinha corn plantings in Brazil could be delayed as a knock-on effect of late soybean plantings due to high soil moisture.

“If that does happen and that weather does become a factor, I would anticipate strength in the corn market,” he said.

March corn, soybean and wheat contracts, except for Minneapolis spring wheat, all saw weekly gains on Jan. 7. While the March corn contract ended the day at US$4.4675 per bushel, Lilja said a two to three bushel per acre cut in corn yield could push the futures past US$4.55/bu.

He said the upcoming reports may already be priced into the markets by the trade, but Lilja warned a possible truce between Russia and Ukraine could potentially put more corn and wheat into the market.

“(Russia’s invasion of Ukraine) is one of the reasons our corn exports have been well above-average this year because Ukraine has been limited in shipping,” he explained.

The post CBOT Weekly: USDA reports could support prices appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

Statistics Canada released its December principal field crop estimates on Dec. 4, which projected record production for wheat in 2025-26. All wheat was pegged at 39.955 million tonnes, up from 36.624 million in 2024-25. Spring wheat production increased by 10.3 per cent at 29.259 million, while that for durum rose 11.8 per cent at 7.135 million.

The Canadian Grain Commission reported 654,900 tonnes of wheat exports for the week ended Nov. 30, up from 583,100 tonnes the previous week. So far this marketing year, 7.828 million were shipped compared to 6.911 million one year ago.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its supply/demand estimates on Dec. 9, keeping ending stocks steady at 901 million bushels in December.

Canadian Western Red Spring (CWRS) wheat was down C$5.10 to up C$7.20 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Average prices were between C$244.70/tonne in southeast Saskatchewan to C$273.20 in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels ranged from between C$31.00 to C$59.60/tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

Accounting for exchange rates and adjusting Canadian prices to U.S. dollars (C$1=US$0.7223), CWRS bids were from US$176.70 to US$197.40/tonne. Currency adjusted basis levels ranged from US$16.30 to US$36.90 below the futures. If the futures were converted to Canadian dollars, basis levels would be C$11.80 to C$26.70 below the futures.

Meanwhile, Canadian Prairie Red Spring (CPRS) prices lost C$5.70 to C$6.30 per tonne. The lowest average bid for CPRS was C$220.40 in southeast Saskatchewan, while the highest average bid was C$245.60 in southern Alberta.

The average prices for Canadian Western Amber Durum (CWAD) lost C$5.80 to C$10.50 per tonne with bids between C$267.50 in southwest Saskatchewan to C$281.80 in southern Alberta.

The March spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts are based off of, was quoted at US$5.7625 per bushel on Dec. 9, down 4.5 cents.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPRS in Canada. The March contract was down six cents at US$5.27/bu.

The March Chicago soft red contract dropped 6.5 cents at US$5.3450/bu.

The Canadian dollar moved up 0.69 of a cent to close at 72.23 U.S. cents on Dec. 9.

The post Prairie Wheat Weekly: Western Canadian bids, U.S. futures down appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

March corn was losing as much as seven U.S. cents per bushel before rallying to gain 3.75 cents for the week ended Nov. 26 at US$4.4525/bu. January soybeans dropped 23 cents, but ended the week with a weekly loss of 5.25 cents at US$11.3150.

March Chicago soft wheat had been down 18.75 cents before finishing the week only nine cents lower at US$5.4050. Its Kansas City hard red wheat counterpart dropped 12.25 cents but later nearly erased its losses to close the week at US$5.30. March Minneapolis spring wheat was down 14.25 cents, but gained seven cents afterwards to close at US$5.7850.

Jack Scoville from The Price Futures Group in Chicago explained wheat suffered from global price declines earlier in the week and corn was following suit. He also said prices incurred a sudden uptick later on in the week as first notice day for December contracts is Nov. 28. However, he doesn’t believe the rallies will last.

“I think, overall, the funds are down seasonally and for whatever reason, I feel like we’re only getting a couple of days uptick. We’ll see what happens on Dec. 1,” Scoville said.

He added corn demand had been strong earlier, but talk of falling demand more recently put pressure on prices. Wheat and soybean demand was average, but reports that China will purchase more cargoes of U.S. soybeans lifted prices.

But there are underlying factors pressuring soybean prices.

“Brazilian (soybean) prices have not moved. Brazil is selling at cheaper levels than the U.S.,” Scoville said.

There is usually a lack of interest in grain markets going into December, he added, which would result in sideways to lower trade.

“Unless there’s some news around to really push prices higher … it looks like sideways trade is going to play out next month,” Scoville said.

The post CBOT Weekly: Prices decline, but find strength before Thanksgiving appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.