Granted, if they had the forethought and storage capacity to buy fertilizer in the fall or top up their farm fuel reserves, they’re not taking mortal financial blows right before seeding — but with every new gas field struck, fertilizer plant shuttered or country shutting down fertilizer exports to protect their slice of the global pie, it seems less likely that supply chains will get back to status quo anytime soon.

According to an FCC web post, released in early March and recently cited by our reporter Miranda Leybourne, a 2022 study suggested about half of Prairie farmers have their fertilizer by late March. That’s more than in Eastern Canada (only 10 per cent of Ontario farmers had done the same), but it still leaves a lot of producers potentially eating big bills this spring.

Cycle of uncertainty for farmers

As our executive editor Laura Rance noted a few weeks ago, this kind of chaos has become all too familiar.

COVID-19 threw international supply chains into a blender. Inflation has ballooned far more for farmers than even other Canadians. Manitoba Agriculture staff puts the farm inflation rate in the last five years at up to 50 per cent. Canada picked another fight with China, and canola took the brunt. Then there’s the second era of Donald Trump, whose policies have helped throw more uncertainty and market volatility into the mix than the world has seen in decades.

Farmers have become unfortunately used to waking up one morning to find their market gone or input prices spiking due to events impossible to anticipate and which often have nothing to do with them.

A system can only take so much before people start looking for alternatives. If farmers are shopping for innovations though, they’re going to have to wrestle with the reality that many of those technologies have the word “sustainable” associated with them.

That’s the tone of society; and it’s often the buzzword that attracts either public or private investment enough to get those ag tech concepts over the finish line.

Many farmers resent the “green” mandates being imposed upon them by government and public pressure. The federal goal to reduce fertilizer emissions by 30 per cent under 2020 levels by the end of the decade is a prime example.

Farmers’ were first and foremost worried that it would turn into a hard limit on nitrogen fertilizer use. The federal government has always denied that, saying that it’s going to be more about encouraging efficiencies.

If urea futures are going to start spiking 30 per cent though (as they did within two days of the intensified conflict in Iran), maybe less natural gas derived fertilizer isn’t a bad thing.

A case for self-sufficiency

Most of the farms that I’ve seen who have bought into regenerative or “sustainable” practices have a financial reason, rather than just an ideological one. They want long-term viability and to be able to absorb shocks they’ve observed in the field or have suffered in the bank account.

Such was the case with R&L Acres near Sperling, home to Manitoba’s first on-farm green ammonia plant.

Yes, government and researchers had an environmental interest in the initiative. It uses hydro power and electrolysis to get hydrogen from water, rather than natural gas. Combined with nitrogen from the atmosphere, it becomes on-farm manufactured ammonia.

Researchers have even suggested that green ammonia could one day become an alternate fuel source for machinery.

Farm owner Curtis Hiebert, though, also talked about a desire for self-sufficiency, to decouple from the whims of the fertilizer market and save money, especially when regular ammonia prices were up. The numbers presented in 2024 put final cost of a 500 tonne per year system at $948 per tonne for the farmer.

That may not always offer huge savings, but it will be consistent, and that certainty is also worth something. At the time the system was being installed, the fertilizer market was in turmoil because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Today, there’s a whole new set of world affairs mucking things up.

One plant doesn’t mean green ammonia is about to roll over conventional ways of farming, nor is it clear how much our renewable energy infrastructure would be able to support. Manitoba Hydro has already warned about its looming capacity limits. The up-front cost of the system is also big: an estimated $4.5 million in 2024.

Green ammonia is, though, an example of the kind of farm-focused innovation that could offer legitimate solutions and resiliency in an increasingly uncertain world.

We shouldn’t get so caught on the word “green,” and any complicated feelings that word comes with, that we dismiss the equally real impacts for self-sufficiency, sovereignty, stability and, in the best of cases, cost savings.

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Some 20 per cent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas also transits the Strait, and its near closure, combined with missile and drone strikes across the Gulf, have forced regional energy facilities to halt output.

That has, in turn, shut fertilizer plants in the Gulf and beyond, just as farmers across the Northern Hemisphere prepare for spring planting, leaving little margin for delays.

The global market for urea was already struggling with tight supplies prior to the current conflict, with Europe forced to cut output due to the loss of cheap Russian gas and China restricting fertilizer exports, including urea, in order to ensure domestic supplies.

Which fertilizer plants have halted or cut output?

Qatar Energy has halted output at the world’s largest urea plant after shutting down gas output following attacks on its LNG facilities.

In India, a massive global urea market, three urea plants have cut output as LNG supplies from Qatar have plummeted.

India, home to nearly a fifth of the world’s population, buys more than 40 per cent of its urea and phosphatic fertilizers from the Middle East, and recently agreed to buy 1.3 million tons of urea, some of which might not arrive on time.

Bangladesh has shut four of its five fertilizer factories, while Australia’s Wesfarmers has warned of possible shipment delays, including for urea.

Egypt, which supplies eight per cent of globally traded urea, could struggle to produce nitrogen fertilizer after Israel declared force majeure on gas exports to the country, Scotiabank and Rabobank analysts say.

Brazil is almost 100 per cent reliant on urea imports — nearly half of which transits the Strait of Hormuz.

In the U.S., farmers are reporting sold out retailers, with the country about 25 per cent short of fertilizer supplies for this time of year.

Globally, urea exports are set to fall to about 1.5 million metric tons in March, compared to 3.5 million without China’s supplies, or 4.5 to 5 million with China, according to Scotiabank.

How has the conflict affected prices?

Urea export prices in the Middle East have jumped about 40 per cent to just above $700 per metric ton (C$958) on March 13 from just under $500 (C$685) before the war, according to Argus.

In the U.S., fertilizer prices have surged as much as 32 per cent since the conflict began.

Analysts say prices for nitrogen-based fertilizers like urea could roughly double if the war drags on.

Given the Middle East’s dominant market share, no producer can quickly make up for the lost supply, according to Chris Lawson, analyst at CRU.

Russia, the world’s largest fertilizer exporter, is facing supply disruptions due to Ukraine drone strikes, while China, despite ample capacity, is restricting exports, he said.

— Additional reporting by Gus Trompiz, Sybille de La Hamaide and Dewi Kurniawati

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Canola prices are up as China followed through on its promise to reduce anti-dumping duties after Canada eased steep tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. While not zero, tariffs of just under 15 per cent make it possible to restore trade flows and maintain China as Canada’s second-largest canola customer.

As well, Canada’s prime minister was recently in India on another diplomatic defrosting mission that had positive implications for agricultural exports. Any time the world’s largest exporter of pulse crops like peas, lentils and chickpeas can make inroads into the world’s biggest market for those commodities, the sun shines a little brighter.

While more sales to India weren’t on the agenda, talks between Mark Carney and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi still showed progress. Among the dozens of outcomes was an agreement to jointly develop an India-Canada Pulse Protein Centre of Excellence, with a goal to advance co-operation in value-added agriculture and food innovation.

Collaboration and co-operation on trade don’t erase the diplomatic tensions with either of these global giants, but whenever there is conversation, there are opportunities for finding more common ground.

There are even hints of trade talks resuming with the U.S. to determine the future of the all-important trade deal that allows most agricultural products to flow between the two countries tariff-free. While farmers can be under no illusion that these talks will adhere to common-sense principles, at least they are happening.

So, things were indeed looking up.

Then the U.S and Israel launched their offensive against Iran. While the rationale and the timing for this conflict remain openly debated, many doubt this will be over any time soon.

Of direct concern to farmers across North America is the significance of the Strait of Hormuz to the world’s fertilizer and fuel supply chains. Fertilizer and fuel account for more than 40 per cent of a grain farmer’s annual operating costs.

Around 20 per cent of the seaborne oil and up to one-third of global trade in urea passes through the strait, which has effectively been closed due to the threat of missile strikes. Prices have spiked, jarring the global economy and threatening to wipe out any income gains with much higher costs.

The fighting has also shut down key nitrogen fertilizer production facilities as sources of natural gas are cut. There are reports the conflict has shuttered three of the world’s largest urea exporters and three of its largest anhydrous exporters in Qatar, Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Fertilizer prices were already at historical highs last fall, which left farmers with the dilemma of taking the hit then — and hoping they didn’t feel like a fool if prices dropped — or waiting, and hoping they didn’t feel like a fool if prices rose higher in the spring.

Analysts believe there is likely enough fertilizer in position to get farmers through seeding. The main effect will be on the cost for any supplies not yet priced and for supplies going forward.

Securing the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipments will take more than rhetoric and promises. Merely the threat of attack is enough to give commercial shippers pause. Military escorts tie up critical naval forces indefinitely and, although they offer protection, there are no guarantees of safe passage. As well, placing naval resources in those waters makes military personnel sitting ducks — which ups the political stakes.

Pollsters say American voters didn’t support this war in the first place. Their appetite for putting troops on the ground is even lower. How does a rising body count play out in the approaching mid-term elections, especially considering the data that shows disproportionate number of military recruits come from the same rural areas that form the Republican base?

The point is, even the instigators are now acknowledging this is more complicated than it first seemed.

Once again, farmers are caught in the crossfire through no doing of their own.

What really burns is that there isn’t a darn thing farmers can do about it — except build a wider margin for geopolitical risk into their game plans.

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The region accounts for 50 per cent of global sulphur exports and 34 per cent of urea shipments.

WHY IT MATTERS: This is the time of year many farmers are making fertilizer decisions and purchases.

“The conflict can severely disrupt the availability of those two products in particular, with limited options to cover the shortfall,” Marina Simonova, head of fertilizer analytics with Argus Media, said in a video presentation.

Urea prices are up about 30 per cent since the start of the conflict, while sulphur prices have not yet responded.

The region is also a major player in ammonia, phosphate rock and DAP/MAP markets.

More than 60 million tonnes of fertilizer and fertilizer raw materials are exported out of the Middle East annually. That includes 20.1 million tonnes each of sulphur and urea.

“This is a significant volume,” she said.

The war has disrupted run rates at production facilities in the Middle East and has created challenges with logistics and shipping infrastructure.

For instance, drone strikes have led to Saudi Aramco taking its Ras Tanura refinery offline in Saudi Arabia. The Duqm port in Oman was hit by a drone, while the Salalah port was closed for safety reasons.

Sulphur, urea and ammonia production has also been disrupted in Qatar and Iran.

Potash and phosphate production has so far been unaffected.

Fertilizer production facilities are not major targets, but can suffer collateral damage.

And then there are the shipping challenges.

“The majority of fertilizer-producing sites in the region rely heavily on the Strait of Hormuz to be able to ship to international markets,” said Simonova.

Saudi Arabia is by far the biggest fertilizer exporter in the region, accounting for 16 million tonnes or 25 percent of the Middle East’s shipments.

Iran is the fifth largest exporter, with about half of that volume.

The conflict is also disrupting the production and exports of natural gas and oil. Natural gas is an essential feedstock for ammonia production, while sulphur is a byproduct of oil production.

She said sulphur and ammonia are both important ingredients for downstream phosphate and nitrogen fertilizer supply chains.

As a result, there is a domino effect for the fertilizer industry when natural gas and oil supplies are disrupted.

“It can have far-reaching consequences for all fertilizer commodities and global markets,” said Simonova.

The top three sulphur buyers in the world (China, Morocco and Indonesia) each have more than a 50 per cent reliance on product from the Middle East.

Meanwhile, India, Morocco and South Korea could experience severe shortages of ammonia for their phosphate and chemical production.

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That would be in addition to the planted area recently projected by Statistics Canada, as nitrogen-based fertilizers have seen price hikes of 30 per cent since the start of the current Middle East war. Vessels transiting the narrow Strait of Hormuz to and from the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf have come to a stop, which threatens global supplies.

On Feb. 27, nearby urea futures on the Chicago Board of Trade were nearly US$442 per tonne and then jumped to US$590 by March 3. Since then, urea has fluctuated with crude oil prices, closing on March 9 at US$585/tonne.

Pulses add nitrogen

Risula said in a March 10 interview that switching to pulses would make sense due to the nitrogen benefits they provide.

“But it may not be as much as one might think because there are other aspects that could influence farmers’ decisions,” he added.

He said farmers’ crop rotations would be a major consideration as well as concerns over root rot, which has been a problem for pulse crops in Saskatchewan.

Of the choices for additional pulse acres, Risula said the most likely would be lentils. Another selection he said farmers would consider is chickpeas.

“They’re growing it away from the area it was intended for, which was the drier part of southwest Saskatchewan,” he said, noting there are more chickpea varieties available.

StatCan recently forecast a 13.3 per cent increase of planted chickpea acres in Saskatchewan for 2026/27 at 559,100.

Phosphorus issues

As for lentils and peas, Risula cautioned these pulses require good phosphorus levels, which is currently a problem in the province.

“Generally, our soils have been running down in phosphorus levels,” which he said are cyclical.

That would also mean farmers would have to consider the costs to applying phosphorus where levels are lower than normal and its availability. While urea process have risen significantly, those for phosphorous are up only five per cent.

StatCan planted and forecast pulse acres in Saskatchewan

Pulse 2025/26 2026/27

Lentils 3,808,600 3,643,900

Dry Peas 1,773,000 1,479,300

Chickpeas 493,400 559,100

Faba Beans 15,300 29,800

Dry Beans 8,600 n/a

– With files from Sean Pratt, Glacier FarmMedia

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Urea barges in New Orleans traded roughly US$50-$80 per short ton, or 11 to 17 per cent higher, on March 2 compared to Feb. 28, according to Argus Media.

The conflict presents a “major risk” to North American urea supplies ahead of spring planting, according to an analysis published on the Argus website.

A vessel loading on Monday in the Middle East would arrive in the United States by mid-April. March and April are the largest months for urea imports.

“If shipments from the Middle East are delayed or disrupted, the U.S. would lose a critical source of urea, likely crunching supply and laying the groundwork for upward price volatility,” Argus analyst Calder Jett said in his article.

“Middle Eastern producers of urea so far have suspended offers and are grappling with shipping complications in the Strait of Hormuz.”

WHY IT MATTERS: This is the time of year when farmers are contemplating spring fertilizer purchases.

StoneX fertilizer analyst Josh Linville said the conflict couldn’t come at a worse time for North American farmers, who are gearing up for spring.

Commercial shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has started to “grind to a halt.” Vessel owners do not want to put their ships and crews in harm’s way.

The market impact will depend on how long the strait is shut down, he said in a YouTube video on the subject.

U.S. president Donald Trump has stated that U.S. military operations in Iran are likely to last at least one month.

“The unfortunate part is that means you have locked in three of your top 10 global urea exporters and three of your top 10 global anhydrous exporters,” said Linville.

Saudi Arabia is also a major exporter of phosphate fertilizer.

The phosphate market was already suffering from the lack of Chinese exports. The world’s largest exporter of the product said it will not be shipping any product until August 2026.

The urea market has also had problems with supply keeping up to rising demand due to a lack of Chinese exports and the European Union functioning at about 75 per cent of its normal operating rate.

“We have gotten to the point where we don’t have any excess supplies anymore,” said Linville.

Iran and Saudi Arabia don’t have any alternatives to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

“For those manufacturers that rely on the Persian Gulf to get out to the rest of the world, if you shut down that narrow body of water, you’re stuck,” he said.

Dennis Voznesenski, agricultural economist with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, reports that three freight vessels from the U.S. and United Kingdom have already been struck in the Strait of Hormuz.

He noted in a post on X that one-third of global urea trade passes through the strait, according to Kpler.

The hostilities will also disrupt natural gas shipments through the strait, which could lead to higher fertilizer production costs.

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WHY IT MATTERS: 4R nutrient management, which stands for applying the right fertilizer source at the right rate, right time and in the right place, has become a rallying call for fertilizer efficiency in Canada and is being pushed by both industry and government.

There’s been growing interest in precision 4R fertilization over the past few years, said Mario Tenuta during the Canola AgriScience Cluster Research Roundup webinar in June.

The 4R movement has been key framework for Fertilizer Canada, gotten official support from Manitoba Agriculture and has been touted and incentivized by various provincial and federal commodity groups, funding programs and organizations like Farm Credit Canada.

But Western Canada and even individual farms have a lot of variation in their soils and topography, Tenuta noted, and that’s a challenge for farmers looking to adopt 4R.

Tenuta has been at the leading edge of multi-stakeholder research into 4R nutrient management.

Possibly the biggest takeaway from one study has been consistently higher nitrous oxide (N2O) greenhouse gas emissions coming from the lower areas of fields.

“(Fields) have underlying landscapes and that affects the return on investment of nitrogen fertilizers and changes nitrogen losses (and) response to fertilizer application, depending where you are on the landscape,” said Tenuta.

The hypothesis of the study, he said, is that by saving nitrogen and not losing it, farmers don’t have to apply as much nitrogen fertilizer. That can save producers cash while minimizing greenhouse gas emissions.

”Nitrous oxide is emitted more so in depression areas because it’s wetter. And so we know that certain areas of the landscape have greater potential for N2O release than others,” he said.

“So when we’re managing a strategy to reduce emissions — and where some 4R practices cost money and potentially even actually spoil some profits — it’s important to know (if we can) tailor the 4R practices to those regions or areas of the field which give us the most return in terms of greenhouse gas reductions and also less impact on profitability.”

Technology looks below the surface

The study — which has two more years to go — is a collaboration among the University of Manitoba, University of Saskatchewan, the Indian Head Agricultural Research Foundation and the three provincial Prairie canola grower associations under the umbrella of the Canola Council of Canada.

Tenuta’s co-investigators included Philip Harder, Rich Farrell, Tristan Skolrud, and Chris Holzapfel.

“The research is done on commercial farm fields and … the agronomics, treatment application and so forth is actually done by farmers,” said Tenuta.

Three research sites were chosen — two in Saskatchewan (Saskatoon and Indian Head) and one in Manitoba (Brandon).

Each field was divided into 10 management zones based on soil properties such as soil nutrient levels, water regime, water movement, drainage and topography. This was verified and fine tuned by ground-truthing.

Then came the development of SWAT (soil, water and topography) maps by Saskatoon-based ag tech firm Croptimistic Technology. These provided variable rate fertilizer prescriptions based on the management zones and their expected yield.

“(We) take some samples — lots of samples actually — for nutrient analysis, find out what’s present in the soil before planting and do a yield analysis in terms of seeing what has been the previous responses to nitrogen fertilizer in these different management zones. And they use all that to fine-tune a prescription map,” Tenuta said.

Then came different fertilizer treatments and the measurement of resulting emissions.

Zone treatments included a flat rate of urea based on a general soil test; variable rate nitrogen based on the SWAT prescription map; a variable rate urea and SuperU mix, plus that same treatment minus 10 per cent of the nitrogen.

The variable rate urea and SuperU mix was considered the precision 4R treatment.

The first tested location was the commercial field near Brandon in 2023. N2O emissions were found to be highest in the depression zones. However, it was a dry summer, which likely weighed on emission levels, said Tenuta.

The trial at Indian Head in 2024 saw a large drop in emissions under variable rate urea in the depression zones. The mid-slope zones saw a benefit from the precision rate and precision rate with reduced nitrogen.

Canola yields in the knoll tops increased with a SWAT map prescription of nitrogen and with precision 4R treatment. Yield in the lower zones was generally consistent and at par with some of the midlands under that same treatment.

The Saskatoon test saw N2O reductions in the mid-slope zones under variable rate urea.

“When we see this reduction with the precision practices, that’s quite a reduction, actually, in terms of N2O emissions,” said Tenuta.

Precision 4R practice push

Warren Ward, an agronomist with the Canola Council of Canada, asked Tenuta about the capacity of producers to invest in precision 4R equipment.

“One of the challenges I always hear about for uptake on new practices is logistics and equipment in addition to cost. So I’m just wondering, in your opinion, what’s the feasibility this precision 4R approach at this point in time?” Ward asked.

Tenuta said the cost hurdle is becoming smaller as time goes on, especially as precision tech continues to be packaged with farm equipment.

However, there’s a bit of a class divide. He said producers with “big acres” and economies of scale are not only the ones most likely to afford this decked-out equipment, but benefit from it the most. Interest is also a factor, particularly among younger producers.

“It’s fun for them,” Tenuta said. “It’s going to be those folks that are going to be the ones that this technology appeals to, and they’ll have the equipment.

“The ones that don’t have the equipment that are dealing with seeders and drills and things like that from the 1990s … they’re going to retire that way and they’re not going to be doing this.”

The project funders include Alberta Canola, SaskCanola, Manitoba Canola Growers, and the Sustainable Canadian Agricultural Partnership through the Canola Council of Canada Science Cluster.

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“There has a been a spike in the market down at the Gulf, so that eventually translates to maybe higher prices here. We’ll see how long it sticks around.” Burnett said.

“I don’t think it sticks around that long.”

Hurricane Milton is expected to hit Florida’s west coast late Oct. 9, according to a U.S. National Weather Service bulletin. Central and southwestern Florida, including Tampa, are expecting “life threatening storm surge, damaging winds, and flooding rains.”

This, after Hurricane Helene hit the state in late September.

Gulf urea prices have risen by seven or eight per cent this month and peaked on Oct. 4, said Burnett.

Global urea prices rose in recent days, which some have blamed on conflict between Iran and Israel, Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX, told the AgriTalk podcast on Monday.

However, urea inventories were already tight based on “production hiccups” around the world, he said.

“Iran attacking Israel was not the thing that caused it. It was just the trigger that allowed the market to come together and say we now need to move higher because the supply issue is very, very real,” Linville said.

Linville was more concerned about phosphate.

Florida has several phosphate mines in the path of the hurricane. As much as 42 per cent of U.S. ammonium phosphate, 32 per cent of U.S. phosphate rock, and half of U.S. wet-processed phosphoric acid production capacity is located near Tampa Bay. About 40 per cent of all U.S. phosphate fertilizer exports and 27 per cent of total fertilizer exports go through Port Tampa Bay.

Fertilizer maker Mosaic said today it has idled Florida operations. The company, which mines phosphate rock in the state and produces about three-quarters of North America’s phosphate fertilizers, said last week that a facility in Riverview, Florida, was offline because of a storm surge from Helene.

On X, Linville said he was less concerned about phosphate facility damage than he was about electrical infrastructure damage and about workers who might need to care for friends and family before returning to work.

The Gulf region also has many port loading facilities for phosphate, Burnett said. If those are damaged, that could cause shipping delays of the raw material from the mines.

However, he pointed out that Canadian farmers are likely in no hurry to purchase phosphate at this time of year.

“So really the price of mono and diammonium phosphate are irrelevant right now, unless you’re buying for the spring,” he said.

However, farmers are likely frustrated with the price of fertilizer in general, Burnett said. Crop prices have dropped 20 to 30 per cent over the last year while fertilizer prices have remained fairly level.

“I would say that farmers are looking at next year’s cropping rotation, relatively expensive fertilizer compared to the price of the crops that they’re growing and will probably look to minimize nitrogen or try to move to more pulse crops,” Burnett said.

“I think we’re going to see that in a number of areas, not just fertilizer,” he added.

—With files from Reuters

—Updated: added additional information about Florida phosphate production, facility closures.

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“The world has realized that food can be a weapon and it is being currently used,” Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Yara International, one of the world’s largest suppliers of plant nutrients, told Reuters on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos.

He said the direct impact of Russian sanctions has removed at least 15 per cent of global fertilizer supply and the indirect impact was even more severe due to disruptions of supply chains and the impact of gas price rises.

“We need to work on an emergency response for the most vulnerable. For that we urgently need to unlock funds of the world food programme (WFP), which has a $10 billion funding gap,” he said (all figures US$).

David Beasley, the executive director of the United Nations’ World Food Programme, said this month even before the war in Ukraine some 276 million people were hungry globally.

WFP is believed to face a $10 billion fund shortage as food prices, fuel and shipping costs are skyrocketing while donors such as oil-rich Gulf countries are not contributing agreed funds.

Some 25 million tonnes of corn and grains are stuck in Black Sea ports because of the war in Ukraine and Russian grains and fertilizers exports are also disrupted by sanctions.

“Currently, we have an extreme combination of events when food supplies are going down, fertilizers supplies are doing down, gas supplies are going down and prices for gas and fertilizers are rising,” said Holsether.

Global fertilizer production depends heavily on natural gas and the EU receives 40 per cent of its gas from Russia.

In March, Yara curtailed its ammonia and urea output due to the surge in gas prices but has fully restored production since.

“We need to build a system that is less reliant on Russia and is more green including by using renewable energy for fertilizer production,” Holsether said.

The UN classifies over half a million people in Ethiopia, southern Madagascar, South Sudan and Yemen in the most severe phase of acute food insecurity.

Africa generally features among the most severely hit regions. Yara has donated 18,000 tonnes of fertilizers to Ghana and agreed another 40,000 tonnes of delivery, expecting that with the donated part the average price will come down.

— Reporting for Reuters by Dmitry Zhdannikov.

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John Heard, soil fertility specialist with Manitoba Agriculture and Rural Development, told the weekly Crop Talk webinar May 11 that this unusual year is causing farmers to contact him with a couple of areas of concern.

First, there’s whether their fall nitrogen application is still going to be in place and available for a growing crop this summer.

“A lot of farmers had the chance to put down what I consider reasonably priced nitrogen in the fall, and now they’re wondering if it’s still there after all this wet weather,” he said.

And farmers in drought areas who had high fall nitrogen residual levels in the nitrate form are wondering if that source would still be effective.

Fall nitrogen

When it comes to fall nitrogen applications, the question is whether they’ve stayed in the stable form they were first applied in, such as urea, which contains ammonium.

If the applications are done correctly, Heard says the majority of it should still be in the ammonium form.

“That stuff is not lost,” he says. “We consider it stabilized when it’s in that form in the soil.”

It comes down to the process of nitrification – a biological, microbial activity that’s dependent on temperature.

“Work done in Manitoba shows that if banded urea is put down in the fall and temperatures are 10 C, it takes 40 days for that banded urea to convert 100 per cent to nitrate,” Heard said. The conversion rate is reduced to essentially zero in frozen soils.

Since most Manitoba soils were snow covered, wet, and around 0 C until the end of April, nothing was happening. However, as soil temperatures rise, so does the speed at which urea converts to nitrates.

“So that fall nitrogen put down, providing it was in an ammonium form, was not doing anything,” Heard said. “But things are getting revved up now. You can see those temperatures have gone up, and so now those bugs will be working and starting to convert ammonium to nitrate, which is good for crop use, but it also moves it into a vulnerable form,” Heard explains.

Residual nitrogen

Last growing season’s drought has also cast a long soil-fertility shadow.

“Last fall we had a lot of residual nitrogen, sometimes two to four times more than normal,” Heard said. “The worse the drought, the more carry-over. That is actually money in the bank. That was nitrogen that was available for this year’s crop.”

But unlike fall-applied nitrogen, this is in the nitrate form, so it’s vulnerable to losses. The concern, during the recent wet weather, is nitrogen leaching. Leaching can happen any time water is moving through the soil, and it’s something that coarse or sandy soils are more susceptible to.

“If the ground was not deeply frozen and water was moving through it, anything in the nitrate form could be moving,” explains Heard. “It might have moved from the supersurface to the subsoils, hopefully staying within rooting depth. But again, it’s moving further from the surface.”

However, once it warms up, microbes once again become a factor. Heard points out that a made-in-Manitoba rule of thumb is that on saturated soils or flooded soils in the spring when there’s no oxygen in the soil, once things warm up (over about 5 C), losses of two to four pounds of nitrogen per acre per day are possible through denitrification.

“This one is the real whopper with our clay soils in the valley and in other areas – wherever water is going to be standing and oxygen levels depleted,” he said.

Managing losses

Heard points out some options for farmers who suspect they might have experienced nitrogen losses.

“You may wish to do or have your agronomist do a re-soil sampling of a few areas where you had high nitrogen carry-over,” Heard said. The strategy is to do it now before seeding and then adjust nitrogen rates later. Unfortunately, this isn’t easy right now because of the wet soil.

“I’m trying to do that, but it’s just too darned sticky out there,” he said. “I’m sure agronomists are out there trying to do it, but it is a challenge.”

Heard also warns against doing this if nitrogen was applied in the fall because the testing measures nitrates and will not detect the ammonium that has yet to convert.

“I think you’ll just frustrate yourself if you sample where fall nitrogen has been applied,” he said.

The other option is to use a nitrogen-rich strip.

“We put down either paths with more nitrogen at seeding or broadcast them in there, and then compare early-season growth or colour and top-dress if warranted. If you don’t see a difference come June, then your current rates are probably good to go.”

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