Why it matters: Canada and the U.S. are major trade partners, with agricultural goods flowing in both directions across the border.

The tariff actions, which could upend nearly $2.2 trillion in annual U.S. trade with its top three trading partners, went live at 12:01 a.m. EST (0501 GMT). Trump declared that all three countries had failed to do enough to stem the flow of the deadly fentanyl opioid and its precursor chemicals into the U.S.

Find the latest trade war updates here

China responded immediately, announcing additional tariffs of 10 to 15 per cent on certain U.S. imports from March 10 and a series of new export restrictions for designated U.S. entities. Later it said it had raised complaints about the new measures with the World Trade Organization.

Canada and Mexico, which have enjoyed a virtually tariff-free trading relationship with the U.S. for three decades, were poised to immediately retaliate.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Ottawa was launching 25 per cent tariffs on C$30 billion (US$20.7 billion) worth of U.S. imports, including orange juice, peanut butter, wine, spirits, beer, coffee, appliances, apparel, footwear, motorcycles, cosmetics, and pulp and paper.

Trudeau said Canada would slap tariffs on another C$125 billion of U.S. imports if Trump’s tariffs were still in place in 21 days. Consultation over these produce were still taking place, but they are expected to include vehicles, steel, aircraft, fruits and vegetables, beef and pork.

“Tariffs will disrupt an incredibly successful trading relationship,” Trudeau said, adding that they would violate the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement signed by Trump during his first term.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford told NBC that he was ready to cut off shipments of nickel and transmission of electricity from his province to the U.S.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Tuesday there was “no reason, rationale or justification” for Trump’s actions after Mexico took “decisive actions” against organized crime and fentanyl trafficking.

She vowed retaliation and said she would announce Mexico’s response at an event on Sunday in Mexico City’s iconic Zocalo square.

The European Union’s executive Commission said it “deeply regrets” the decision, which risked disrupting global trade. Trump has vowed to impose “reciprocal tariffs” on EU goods on April 2.

PRICE HIKES

The tariffs were already sparking some U.S. price increases, running counter to Trump’s election vow to bring down living costs for Americans.

Target CEO Brian Cornell told CNBC that the retail giant would increase prices “over the next couple of days” on some seasonal grocery products such as avocados from Mexico.

“If there’s a 25 per cent tariff, those prices will go up … certainly over the next week,” Cornell said.

Electronics retailer Best Buy also warned of potential higher prices as the tariffs came into effect. Best Buy CEO Corie Barrie told analysts on a call that China remains the top source of products sold by the company, with Mexico in second place.

The 20 per cent tariff on Chinese imports will apply to several key Chinese electronics categories untouched by prior duties, including smart phones, laptops, video game consoles, smart watches and speakers and Bluetooth devices.

Barrie said the price increases could play out over a longer period, as Best Buy typically carries about six weeks worth of inventory.

STACKING CHINA TARIFFS

The extra 10 per cent duty on Chinese goods adds to a 10 per cent tariff imposed by Trump on February 4 to punish Beijing over the U.S. fentanyl overdose crisis. The cumulative 20 per cent duty comes on top of tariffs of up to 25 per cent imposed by Trump during his first term on some $370 billion worth of U.S. imports.

Some of these products saw U.S. tariffs increase sharply under former president Joe Biden last year, including a doubling of duties on Chinese semiconductors to 50 per cent and a quadrupling of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to over 100 per cent.

China’s new tariffs announced on Tuesday targeted a wide range of U.S. agricultural products including certain meats, grains, cotton, fruit, vegetables and dairy products.

Beijing also placed 25 U.S. firms under export and investment restrictions on national security grounds. Ten of these firms were targeted for selling arms to Taiwan.

China’s commerce ministry said the U.S. tariffs violated World Trade Organization rules and “undermine the basis for economic and trade cooperation between China and the U.S.”

U.S. farmers were hard hit by Trump’s first-term trade wars, which cost them about $27 billion in lost export sales and conceded share of the Chinese market to Brazil.

RECESSION FEARS

The tariffs on Mexican and Canadian products could have much deeper repercussions for a highly integrated North American economy that depends on cross-border shipments to build cars and machinery, refine energy and process agricultural goods.

“Today’s reckless decision by the U.S. administration is forcing Canada and the U.S. toward recessions, job losses and economic disaster,” Canadian Chamber of Commerce CEO Candace Laing said in a statement.

Even before Trump’s tariffs announcement, U.S. data on Monday showed factory gate prices jumped to a nearly three-year high, suggesting that a new wave of tariffs could soon undercut production.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model showed a stunning shift to a 2.8 per cent U.S. GDP contraction in the first quarter, from a 2.3 per cent estimated growth last week.

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The strike blocks everything from food to automobile shipments across dozens of ports from Maine to Texas, a disruption analysts warned will cost the economy billions of dollars a day, threaten jobs and potentially stoke inflation.

Still, President Joe Biden’s administration has indicated it will not use federal powers to end the strike, and on Tuesday pressured dockworker employers to bump up their contract offer to land a deal.

The International Longshoremen’s Association union, which represents 45,000 port workers, had been negotiating with the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) employer group for a new six-year contract ahead of a midnight Monday deadline.

The ILA said in a statement it shut down all ports from Maine to Texas at 12:01 a.m. ET after rejecting USMX’s final proposal, adding the offer fell “far short of the demands of its members to ratify a new contract”.

The ILA’s leader, Harold Daggett, has said employers such as container ship operator Maersk and its APM Terminals North America have not offered appropriate pay increases or agreed to demands to stop port automation projects that threaten jobs.

“We are prepared to fight as long as necessary, to stay out on strike for whatever period of time it takes, to get the wages and protections against automation our ILA members deserve,” Daggett said on Tuesday.

USMX said in a statement that: “Our current offer of a nearly 50 per cent wage increase exceeds every other recent union settlement, while addressing inflation and recognizing the ILA’s hard work to keep the global economy running.”

Daggett said the union is pushing for more, including a $5 per hour (C$6.75) raise for each year of the new six-year contract.

The White House weighed in, saying it was time for the USMX to negotiate a fair contract for workers.

“Shippers have made record profits since the pandemic, and in some case, have seen profits grow in excess of 800 per cent,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said, referring to the COVID-19 pandemic that led to a boom in shipping demand.

“It’s only fair that workers who put themselves at risk during the pandemic to keep ports open see a meaningful increase in their wages, as well.”

Acting Secretary of Labour Julie Su said the employer group has “refused to put an offer on the table that reflects workers’ sacrifice and contributions to their employer’s profits.”

“The parties need to get back to the negotiating table, and that must begin with these giant shipping magnates acknowledging that if they can make record profits, their workers should share in that economic success,” she said.

The strike, the ILA’s first major stoppage since 1977, is worrying businesses that rely on ocean shipping to export their wares or secure crucial imports. It affects 36 ports – including New York, Baltimore and Houston – that handle a range of containerized goods from bananas to clothing to cars.

The walkout could cost the American economy roughly $5 billion a day (C$6.75 billion), JP Morgan analysts estimate.

French shipping group CMA CGM, the world’s third-largest container shipper, on Tuesday issued a force majeure notice over the strike, and said it may charge additional shipping fees for delayed vessels.

The National Retail Federation called on President Joe Biden’s administration to use its federal authority to halt the strike, saying the walkout could have “devastating consequences” for the economy.

Biden officials have repeatedly said the Democratic president will not do so.

The dispute is wedging labour-friendly Biden into a virtual no-win position, with Vice President Kamala Harris in a razor-thin race for the White House with Republican former President Donald Trump.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Tuesday it does not expect significant changes to food prices or availability in the near term.

Grocery chain owner Ahold Delhaize also said it expected minimal short-term impact on its supply chain.

Backup plans

Hundreds of dockworkers demonstrated on Tuesday at a New York City area shipping terminal in Elizabeth, New Jersey, carrying signs and shouting slogans as music blared and vendors hawked food. Daggett arrived to rally them with cheers of “ILA all the way!”

“Everything that comes in this country comes from the containers off these ships that my men work. And I want the world to know it. Don’t come after us saying we’re greedy. Go after those greedy bastards that own these companies in Europe,” Daggett told reporters.

Retailers accounting for about half of all container shipping volume, along with other shippers, have been busily implementing backup plans to minimize the impact of the strike as they head into the winter holiday sales season.

Many of the big players rushed in Halloween and Christmas merchandise early to avoid any strike-related disruptions, incurring extra costs to ship and store those goods.

Retail behemoth Walmart, the largest U.S. container shipper, and membership warehouse club operator Costco say they are doing everything they can to mitigate any impact.

Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk, meanwhile, said it has workaround plans in place to minimize or prevent any disruption to its production, including by using air freight, CNBC reported on Tuesday, citing a company spokesperson.

Lars Jensen, CEO of shipping consultancy Vespucci Maritime, said the strike is unlikely to lead to any critical shortages, but could raise costs for consumers if it is prolonged.

“At the end of the day, the only one who’s going to end up paying the bill for this is the U.S. consumer, simple as that, because import costs are going to rise and those costs are going to be passed on to all the imported products,” he said.

More than 38 container vessels were waiting at anchor near U.S. ports by Tuesday, compared with just three on Sunday, according to Everstream Analytics.

—Additional reporting for Reuters by Gursimran Kaur, Nilutpal Timsina, Shivani Tanna and Shubham Kalia in Bengaluru, David Shepardson in Washington, Stine Jacobsen in Copenhagen, and Gianluca Lo Nostro in Gdansk.

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Dozens of groups including the American Farm Bureau Federation, Renewable Fuels Association and American Chemistry Council said “the time has come for the U.S. government to intervene and ensure port operations do not stop” in order to prevent damage to U.S. agriculture and the economy.

Republican Senator Ted Cruz raised concerns about the impact of a work stoppage, saying the U.S. “teeters on the brink of the first union strike among East and Gulf Coast ports since 1977.” He cited a JPMorgan analysis that projected a port strike could cost the U.S. economy $5 billion daily.

Negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association union and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) employer group appear to be deadlocked over pay as the Sept. 30 contract expiration approaches.

The White House did not immediately comment on the letter.

“We are monitoring and assessing potential ways to address impacts to U.S. supply chains related to operations at our ports, if necessary,” White House spokesperson Robyn Patterson said Tuesday, adding officials encourage continued negotiations “toward an agreement that benefits all sides and prevents any disruption.”

President Joe Biden’s administration has said the president does not intend to invoke a federal law known as the Taft-Hartley Act to prevent a strike.

A threatened strike by 45,000 ILA-represented workers at three dozen affected ports, including New York and New Jersey, Houston and Savannah, Georgia, would send delays and costs cascading through U.S. supply chains.

Approximately 40 per cent of U.S. containerized agricultural exports move through East and Gulf Coast ports, the agriculture groups said.

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A strike would hit 36 ports that handle about one-half of U.S. ocean imports. That could affect availability of a range of goods from bananas to clothing to cars shipped via container, while creating weeks-long backlogs at ports. It could also stoke shipping cost increases that may be passed on to American voters already frustrated with housing and food inflation, according to logistics experts.

The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) union representing workers at 36 ports from Maine to Texas and the United States Maritime Alliance employer group appear to have hit an impasse over pay. The current six-year contract expires at midnight on Sept. 30.

A strike at all East Coast and Gulf of Mexico ports would be the first for the ILA since 1977.

The White House said it is not trying to help broker a deal, as it did last year during West Coast talks, and a Biden administration official has said the President would not use his federal powers to block a strike.

Ports in the negotiating group handled $37.8 billion (C$50.9 billion) worth of vehicle imports during the 12 months ended June 30, 2024, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. The Port of Baltimore, Maryland, leads the nation in car shipments.

Auto parts are also a key import on the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico, with shipments from Europe more difficult to reroute than those from China, logistics experts said.

The ports also lead the U.S. in shipments of machinery, fabricated steel and precision instruments.

Three-quarters of the nation’s banana imports from countries like Guatemala and Ecuador land at ports on the East and Gulf Coasts, said Jason Miller, interim chair of Michigan State University’s department of supply chain management.

A strike also would affect container exports of soybeans, soybean meal and other products and would have a significant impact on chilled or frozen meat and eggs, said Mike Steenhoek, executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition.

The $18-billion-a-year (C$24.2 billion) U.S. beef and pork export market and the $5.8 billion (C$7.8 billion) poultry and egg export sector relies on refrigerated containers that cannot sit idle for long.

About 45 per cent of all waterborne U.S. pork exports and 30 per cent of beef exports were shipped via East Coast and Gulf Coast ports in the first seven months of this year, said U.S. Meat Export Federation spokesperson Joe Schuele.

More than a quarter of all U.S. egg and egg product exports and around 70 per cent of all poultry meat exports are shipped from ports along the East and Gulf Coasts, according to Customs data and the USA Poultry & Egg Export Council.

Retailers account for roughly half of all container volumes. Many U.S. retailers already have rushed in shipments of year-end holiday goods.

Though the Gulf Coast ports of Houston and New Orleans are major oil and gas shipment hubs, those commodities would remain largely unaffected by a strike involving more labor-intensive container cargo. The same applies to coal exports from Norfolk, Virginia, experts said

—Reporting for Reuters by Lisa Baertlein in Los Angeles and Karl Plume in Chicago.

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U.S. District Judge Charles Kocoras in Chicago ruled on Tuesday that reasonable consumers would not agree with the plaintiff Adam Sorkin that “farm fresh” necessarily meant hens “living on farms, with open green space, grass, hay and straw.”

Sorkin said he paid a premium price for “farm fresh” eggs under the Roundy’s label at Mariano’s Fresh Market stores—Kroger owns both brands—in the Chicago area, and would have paid less or not bought them had he known their origins.

But in dismissing the proposed class action, Kocoras distinguished “farm fresh” from descriptors such as “cage-free,” “free-range” and “pasture-raised” that actually describe the living conditions of hens.

“The court agrees with Kroger that no reasonable consumer would plausibly spin free-roaming hens on a grassy, open field from the term ‘farm fresh,'” Kocoras wrote.

“‘Farm Fresh Eggs’ means precisely what it says: the eggs are fresh from a farm,” he added. “It is about origin and timing, nothing more.”

Lawyers for Sorkin did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Wednesday. Kroger and its lawyers did not immediately respond to similar requests.

Sorkin sued last October, eight months after the nonprofit advocacy group Data for Progress released a report, “Cracking Down on Kroger,” calling for increased transparency about where Kroger’s eggs come from.

The report included a survey of 646 Kroger customers, where 41 per cent said they thought “farm fresh” meant cage-free, 14 per cent said it meant cages were used, and 45 per cent didn’t know.

The case is Sorkin v Kroger Co, U.S. District Court, Northern District of Illinois, No. 23-14916.

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They can now rest easy because the U.S. is no longer negotiating those types of pacts, much to the chagrin of U.S. farm groups.

Virginia Houston, director of government affairs with the American Soybean Association, says president Joe Biden’s administration feels FTAs pit U.S. domestic industries against one another.

That was one of the messages U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai delivered to Congress when she testified in front of the House and Senate this April.

“One thing she said multiple times is that while farmers and agriculture benefit from traditional FTAs, workers do not,” said Houston.

“They feel that the traditional FTAs tend to disadvantage domestic manufacturing.”

However, U.S. farm groups are lamenting the loss of FTAs. The last one was the U.S.-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement that took effect May 15, 2012.

“U.S. agriculture wants more traditional free trade agreements because FTAs include tariff reduction measures and they also include codified market access,” she said.

“Without those, it’s hard to gain footholds into new markets.”

That is why 33 U.S. farm groups recently sent a letter to Tai urging her to recommit to an aggressive trade agenda that includes FTAs.

“Export markets are essential for our survival, and comprehensive trade agreements and elimination of tariff and non-tariff barriers help ensure that U.S. agriculture can compete on an even playing field in our export markets,” stated the letter.

Tai also received another letter from 21 U.S. senators making the same point.

“While the Biden administration continually refuses to pursue traditional free trade agreements, China, Canada, the European Union, the United Kingdom and others continue to ink trade pacts that diminish American export opportunities and global economic influence,” stated that letter.

Michael Harvey, executive director of the Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance, is pleased Canada continues to negotiate FTAs while the U.S. has stopped.

“It can be an advantage for us if we work on these agreements where there is solid market access,” he said.

The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is a good case in point.

The U.S. bowed out of that pact, which gives Canadian exporters a leg up in some key markets as long as signatories to the agreement work hard to ensure market access provisions in the deal are upheld and enforced.

Canada is also negotiating agreements with Indonesia and ASEAN nations that could prove advantageous.

Harvey said the anti-FTA stance of the U.S. dates back before Biden taking office.

“We’ve definitely seen that the last three American administrations have not been interested in market access the way administrations used to be,” he said.

The Democratic Party has always been skeptical about international trade due to its strong ties to trade unions.

“But the Republicans have moved in a more nationalist direction too and are a lot more skeptical than they used to be,” said Harvey.

Both parties are fed up with China’s notorious trade practices, which is influencing their trade policies.

People are also blaming trade agreements for reduced employment in the manufacturing sector rather than pinning the blame on the real culprit, which is technological advancements, said Harvey.

He believes the Canadian government needs to take the offensive to ensure the same anti-trade sentiments don’t creep across the border. Ottawa needs to remind Canadians of the economic benefits of trade.

“People are forgetting how much trade is contributing to our standard of living,” said Harvey.

That is why he is pleased Canada recently opened its Indo-Pacific Agriculture and Agri-Food Office in Manila, Philippines, to encourage trade in that important region.

In the meantime, U.S. farm groups are hopeful their government recommits to negotiating and signing FTAs because the current tactics are not cutting it.

Houston is encouraged that many members of Congress are onboard with their lobbying effort.

“We do know our voice is being heard,” she said.

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“We are concerned as farmers about rules and regulations coming out of EPA when it comes to herbicides,” Josh Gackle, president of the American Soybean Association (ASA), said during the general session of the 2024 Commodity Classic conference.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently proposed a herbicide strategy designed to bring the agency’s registrations into compliance with the Endangered Species Act.

Courts have consistently ruled that the EPA is not properly evaluating the impact pesticides have on endangered species, and the proposed strategy is the EPA’s attempt to address those concerns.

Gackle said the ASA has no problem with the EPA meeting its legal obligations, but the policy must be something that could be implemented on farms and that is not the case with the proposed strategy.

For example, the strategy calls for farmers to seek guidance from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 30 days before applying a pesticide in areas where endangered species reside.

“We don’t know three days ahead of time what we need to be spraying in our fields,” Gackle said during an interview.

“Something like that just doesn’t work.”

A survey conducted by the ASA indicates 80 percent of producers would not comply with the EPA’s proposal and would face “moderate to extreme” costs to become compliant.

“The proposal would likely require billions of dollars for farmers across the country to implement and could prevent some farmers from using certain herbicides entirely,” the ASA said in a news release.

That is why soybean growers were relieved when the EPA announced it is extending the deadline to finalize the strategy by three months to Aug. 30, giving the agency more time to consider feedback from farm groups and others.

“They are taking our input, so that’s a hopeful sign,” said Gackle.

He also praised the agency for its quick action in the dicamba case.

Growers were blindsided by a federal district court in Arizona that vacated the 2020 registrations for a variety of dicamba products used on 50 million acres of U.S. corn and soybeans.

The ruling meant growers couldn’t use millions of dollars worth of product for the 2024 growing season and would have seriously jeopardized yields.

However, the EPA stepped in and ruled that growers can use existing stocks of the product that were packaged, labelled and shipped before the Feb. 6 court ruling.

“We feel like we stopped the bleeding there and saved a lot of families a lot of money,” EPA administrator Michael Regan told reporters during the Commodity Classic, a conference that drew a record 11,500 guests.

U.S. agriculture secretary Tom Vilsack praised his colleague.

“Every time I think I’ve got a tough job, I say to myself, ‘thank God I’m not the EPA administrator,’” he said during his speech to the delegates.

Vilsack said Regan has to deal with interest groups, Congress and courts telling him what to do and when to do it.

Regan said there is a 20-year history of courts telling the EPA what to do, and it creates difficult situations such as the dicamba incident.

“No grower wants to wake up in the middle of a growing season to be told one of the tools in the toolbox is now taken away,” he said.

Gackle noted that the dicamba registrations for 2025 and beyond are now under the microscope.

He anticipates product manufacturers will come up with labels that are more restrictive so they don’t face another legal battle.

Gackle expects final cut-off dates for application of the product may be earlier and buffer zones could be increased.

Brent Cheyne, president of the National Wheat Growers Association, said farmers recently had a big win in a legal battle with California over Proposition 65, which would have banned the use of Roundup in the state.

“After six long years of litigation we prevailed,” he said.

“It was a long and arduous battle and there were times I questioned (if) we would win.”

Cheyne said Roundup makes no-till possible, a practice that builds topsoil, reduces air and water pollution and creates better habitat for wildlife.

He said pesticide regulations need to be based on peer-reviewed science from bodies such as the National Academy of Sciences rather than “hocus pocus science.”

“We have to have our crop inputs protected,” he said.

“People need to realize we’re not just out there spraying for something to do. It costs a lot of money to do it.”

—Sean Pratt writes for the Western Producer.

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In addition to the jury verdict in the Philadelphia Court of Common Pleas, Bayer said a California farmer, who said he contracted the same type of cancer from exposure to the product, and his wife on Tuesday voluntarily dropped their lawsuit while a trial was underway in the in state court in Sonoma County, California.

“We continue to stand behind the safety of Roundup and will confidently defend the safety of our products and our good faith actions in any future litigation,” Bayer said in a statement.

Scott Love, a lawyer for Carl Kline, the plaintiff in the Pennsylvania case, said the jury had not been allowed to hear key evidence, including a finding by a World Health Organization body that glyphosate, Roundup’s active ingredient, was likely capable of causing cancer.

A lawyer for the California plaintiffs, Michael and Bobbie Meyer, did not immediately respond to requests for comment. It was not immediately clear why the Meyers dropped their case.

Tuesday’s victories come on the heels of another trial win for the company in Arkansas on Friday. Bayer has now prevailed in 13 of the last 20 Roundup trials, while plaintiffs have scored large verdicts totaling more than $4 billion, including $2.25 billion in a single case in January.

The company is appealing its trial losses, which include large punitive damages awards that are likely to be reduced because they exceed U.S. Supreme Court guidance.

Around 165,000 claims have been brought in the U.S. against Bayer over Roundup, which the company acquired as part of its $63 billion purchase of U.S. agrochemical company Monsanto in 2018. Many were resolved as part of a $9.6 billion settlement in 2020, but about 54,000 remain.

Bayer CEO Bill Anderson told investors in a call on Tuesday that he was “considering every possible means to bring closure” to the litigation, including solutions “outside the courtroom,” though he did not offer details.

The company phased out sales of glyphosate products for home use last year, though it still sells other formulations under the Roundup name.

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Glacier FarmMedia — U.S. agriculture secretary Tom Vilsack says the United States is trying to regain its competitive edge in world agricultural markets.

He told delegates attending the 2024 Commodity Classic conference that for many years the U.S. had better transportation logistics than its competitors and that gave the country a price advantage in overseas markets.

But that competitive advantage has evaporated due to large infrastructure investments by Brazil and Argentina.

“That price difference over time has disappeared,” said Vilsack.

It’s why the U.S. “doubled down” with the passing of the Bipartisan Infrastructure deal in 2021, a bill that will result in improved roads and bridges, ports and locks and dams.

But those investments will take time to come to fruition. In the meantime, the U.S. is going to attempt to boost exports through increased funding of export promotion programs, said Vilsack.

Todd Hultman, lead analyst for DTN, told farmers that spot corn futures will likely trade in the range of $4 to $5.25 per bushel in 2024-25, while soybeans will likely bounce around between $11 and $14 per bu.

His colleague John Baranick, DTN’s ag meteorologist, told U.S. growers to expect a hot spring and summer.

He is forecasting wet spring conditions in the northern and eastern portions of the country, while the summer will by dry throughout much of the Plains region.

Arlan Suderman, chief economist with StoneX, said Brazil’s soybean crop is getting bigger.

The company surveyed its farmer customers in that country, and they indicated that the crop could be 151.6 million tonnes, up 1.2 million tonnes from its previous forecast.

Corn production is pegged at 124.5 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous forecast, considering growers just finished planting the second crop of corn.

Suderman said a lot of those Brazilian soybeans will be heading to China, which appears to be stockpiling a wide variety of crops.

“So why are they buying?” he said during a live taping of the U.S. Farm Report at the 2024 Commodity Classic.

One theory is that the government is buying a large amount of corn and other crops from its growers to prop up domestic prices.

That is also creating an inviting environment for imports. But those imports are increasingly being supplied by Brazil and Ukraine, while U.S. crops are slowly being squeezed out, said Suderman.

Chip Flory, editor emeritus of Pro Farmer and host of AgriTalk, wonders if China is preparing for an invasion of Taiwan.

Suderman thinks that is a distinct possibility. Chinese president Xi Jinping has stated that he is going to bring Taiwan back into the fold during his tenure in office and he is 70 years old.

Flory wonders if the political landscape is setting up for another trade war between China and the U.S. if Donald Trump is re-elected as U.S. president.

If that happens, growers should prepare for another round of direct subsidies to offset the loss of that market.

Carah Hart, president of the National Association of Farm Broadcasting, spoke about the threat that electric vehicles pose to radio broadcasters.

Car manufacturers say electromagnetic interference in electric vehicles causes static and limited coverage with AM radio.

Despite mitigation solutions, some EV manufacturers have stopped putting AM radios in their cars.

Hart said that is having a huge detrimental impact for farm broadcasters around the country.

She encouraged delegates attending the general session of the Commodity Classic to support the AM Radio for Every Vehicle Act, which would require access to AM broadcast stations in motor vehicles.

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The government currently restricts sales of E15 gasoline, or gasoline with 15 per cent ethanol, in summer months due to environmental concerns over smog, though the biofuel industry says those concerns are unfounded.

The corn-based ethanol industry has been fighting for years for year-round sales of E15 but was frustrated by the 2025 start date, one year later than proposed.

In 2022, the governors of Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin made the request for year-round E15 sales, saying the move could help lower pump prices by boosting fuel volumes.

Some oil refiners have argued that allowing E15 in select states as opposed to nationwide could prompt localized fuel price spikes and supply issues.

The delay enables President Joe Biden’s administration to put off potential price spikes stemming from the decision until after the 2024 U.S. presidential election in November. Two states the decision affects, Wisconsin and Minnesota, are battleground states in this year’s contest.

Inflation and the economy are key vulnerabilities for Biden’s re-election campaign.

The Environmental Protection Agency had sent a final rule on the proposal to the White House in December with an effective date of April 28, 2024. The new timeline would push the effective date to April 28, 2025.

“By extending the implementation date, this final action reduces the risk of gasoline supply issues this summer and the price impacts that could have come with 2024 implementation,” an EPA official said on Thursday.

The EPA did not comment on whether it would issue a temporary waiver enabling E15 sales this summer.

“We cannot speculate about the 2024 summer driving season. We will continue to monitor the situation, consult closely with the Department of Energy, and be prepared to act should conditions warrant,” the agency said.

After the news, the Renewable Fuels Association, a biofuels trade group, called on the administration to take action to ensure consumers have access to E15 this summer, and said it was disappointed over the new rule’s 2025 start date.

The American Petroleum Institute, an oil industry group, meanwhile, said it supported a legislative solution that would allow year-round sales of E15 nationwide.

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