We saw the impact of these arctic highs in the last forecast period. For the most part, they have kept the southern North American storm track just to our south, in North Dakota. This means we have missed most of the snow and accompanying moisture and have stayed on the cool side.

Interestingly, while it has been cool, it has not been bone-chilling cold, despite a pattern that should bring us very cold weather.

For this forecast period, it looks like we will see the same overall weather pattern stay in place. Arctic high pressure that brought plenty of sunshine over the weekend should move to our east, allowing milder air to work into our region on the backside of the high.

Typical with early spring, the weather models show a strong storm system developing to our southwest and moving northeastward on Thursday and Friday.

At the same time, weather models show another arctic high dropping southward. It looks like the arctic high will win out, keeping the storm in the Dakotas, but as usual, we need to keep an eye on this system.

Behind this storm system, arctic high pressure will drop in over the weekend, bringing a return to sunny skies, light winds and cold temperatures. Expect temperatures to be around the bottom end of the usual range for this time of the year.

As the high slides to our south and east early in the last week of March, we will see the flow become westerly to southwesterly, which should allow temperatures to rise toward more average values.

Looking further ahead, there is still no strong sign of change in the overall weather pattern, so it looks like spring won’t make much of an appearance until April.

Usual temperature range for this period: highs, -7 to +5 C; lows, -19 to -7 C.

The post Forecast: Arctic air continues to dominate appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

A March 10 report out of Grand Forks forecasts moderate risk of “significant snowmelt flooding” across U.S. portions the Red River and Devils Lake basins.

That being said, the NWS says there are lingering drought conditions with some surface storage for snow melt infiltration if the thaw is gentle.

Key snowmelt components in the report include near-normal streamflow in the Red River and its tributaries for this time of year. The river and its tributaries are thickly ice-covered and flowing between 25 and 75 per cent, the report says.

Soil moisture at freeze-up was near normal—slightly below in the northern basins. Frost depth is somewhat deeper than normal. Snowpack is also somewhat above normal.

Devils Lake Basin runoff risk is moderately high, the report says. An additional rise of three to four feet is expected. However, the lake is currently at more than a foot below what it was this time last year.

At time of writing, the most recent flood outlook from the province of Manitoba, released February 18, forecasts high risk of moderate spring flooding in most southern Manitoba basins due to higher-than-average snowfall. 

“Water levels are expected to remain below dikes and community flood protection levels at all locations,” the provincial report says.

Soil moisture at freeze-up was below normal for most Manitoba basins the provincial. Most major lakes are below normal levels for this time of year. 

The province will release an updated forecast later this March.

The post Significant snowmelt flooding likely in North Dakota, says NWS appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

“Manitoba Infrastructure continues to make preparations for high water and is working with municipalities to ensure they have the information and support needed for a flood of this magnitude,” said Schuler. “The Red River will once again carry a significant amount of water north, requiring the operation of the Red River Floodway and additional measures taken in partnership with local municipalities.”

• Read more: Manitoba farmers unfazed by flood reports

In its second 2019 spring flood outlook, the HFC notes that with favourable weather, slightly less than 2009 flood levels on the Red River can be expected. With the use of the floodway, water levels at James Avenue in Winnipeg could reach 20.5 feet with unfavourable weather. At this time, the peak at Emerson is expected between April 12 and 23 depending on the rate of the snowmelt and water movement, along with temperatures on both sides of the border. Flood water levels will still be influenced by the rate of snowmelt and future snow and rain accumulation.

Flooding on the Assiniboine and Souris rivers is expected to be moderate with low-lying areas and agricultural lands inundated, but levels will be below the top of community dikes. The Portage Diversion will likely be operated.

“The provincial government is also working with federal officials to ensure the safety of Indigenous communities and preparing to support municipal evacuations if needed,” said Schuler. “We are also working with the agricultural producers to ensure livestock is moved out of the impacted areas.”

Community ring dikes and the majority of individual flood protection works in the Red River Valley are at 1997 flood plus two feet (61 centimetres) levels. Since the 1997 flood, $800 million in permanent flood-proofing measures have been put in place including $630 million of completed improvements and expansion on the Red River Floodway ‎and west dike enhancing.

The minister noted Manitoba Infrastructure is undertaking procurement related to flood preparation, response and recovery through transparent, competitive processes to ensure value for money. These open tenders include the purchasing of sand bags, aggregate material, equipment and support for community dike closures if necessary, and engineering services for flood response advice. Outline agreements and standing offers will be used in these situations to ensure that no procurement is undertaken unless and until required, he added.

Updated flood material will be available as forecasts further develop. Updated flood info can be found at www.gov.mb.ca/mit/floodinfo/index.html.

More information about flooding and how to prepare for an emergency situation is available at www.gov.mb.ca/flooding.

The post Manitoba March flood outlook appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

Flows on waterways across the province are continuing to react to the run-off from the melt and water levels remain high on many waterways. Ice has moved out on some rivers but remains in place on others including portions of the upper and lower Assiniboine River.  Ice jams are still possible and are difficult to predict.

Some of the snowpack remains in the western part of the Souris River basin, the Parkland region, the Duck Mountain area, the Riding Mountain area and northern Manitoba. Much of the snow has already melted in southern Manitoba, with snow remaining in wooded areas.

The Red River continues to rise and is nearing its crest. Some Red River tributaries are still rising such as the Morris and La Salle rivers but others are beginning to decline.  The Red River Floodway is being operated to manage water levels within the city. With the floodway in operation, water levels at James Avenue are expected to remain relatively stable for the next week.

Ice remains in place on the lower Assiniboine near Baie St. Paul. The Portage Diversion is being operated to limit flows on the lower Assiniboine River to minimize ice jamming.

An ice jam in the Netley Creek area released yesterday. Open water levels on the lower Red River are still high but are beginning to recede.

A high water advisory has been issued for the Little Souris River near Brandon due to a significant rise in water levels. A flood watch has been issued for Pelican Lake and a flood warning has been issued for the Pembina River at La Rivière due to overbank flows.

Fisher River flows have declined at East Branch and Hodgson. A flood warning has been lifted for the Fisher River downstream of Dallas as water levels begin to decrease.

High water advisories, flood watches and flood warnings also remain in place on several creeks and rivers across the province.

People are reminded to be watchful of local waterways, as flood conditions can develop quickly. Ditches and culverts contain fast-moving water which could be hazardous and should be avoided.

Avoid driving through moving water as the water depth can be unpredictable and current can push vehicles off the road. It is strongly advised that people be careful if venturing out onto what may appear to be frozen rivers and lakes, due to potential weak ice conditions.

Up-to-date flood information can be found at on the Province of Manitoba website or on Twitter at www.twitter.com/MBGov.

For current highway conditions, call 511, visit www.manitoba511.ca, or follow the Twitter account at www.twitter.com/MBGovRoads for closures. A Manitoba 511 app is now available for download at http://residents.gov.mb.ca/apps/511.html.

The post Overland flooding continues, levels in waterways remain high appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

On to a more global view. February’s global temperatures were released last week and the numbers were a bit surprising. Despite a five-month-long La Niña event, which usually helps to cool the planet a little bit, February 2017 continued a nearly two-year-long trend of extremely warm global temperatures. According to both NOAA and NASA, this February was the second- warmest February on record, only coming in second to last February. This February ranked as the fourth warmest month, compared to average, by NASA and was the seventh-warmest month, according to NOAA. For those of you who don’t trust either of those two databases, the University of Alabama in Huntsville — which monitors global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest eight km of the atmosphere — reported this February was the fourth-warmest in its 39-year database.

Now, back to our region and our first look at potential spring flooding. All I can say is, I wouldn’t want to be trying to figure out what is going to happen this spring. I am not a hydrologist, though I did take hydrology when I was in university, so I think I have a basic understanding of what is going on, and holy cow, is this spring becoming complicated!

Insulation against frost

To start off, we had a very wet fall across eastern and western regions, with the south-central regions seeing average moisture levels. These wet conditions led to soil moisture levels in the top 120 cm to run as high as 95 per cent of capacity over a large area — the only “dry” region being found in the southern Interlake, where available moisture was at 65 per cent of capacity. So far not a good start, but as most of you know, it’s the weather during the winter and spring that really impacts spring flooding. Now, let’s add to this wet beginning the warm start to winter, which prevented deep frost from forming. Once it did get cold, we received a fair bit of snow that helped to create a good insulating layer. This resulted in most regions having a lower-than-average frost depth this winter, which can be a good thing when it comes to spring flooding as the ground can more easily absorb some of the snow melt.

So far so good; maybe the two things can help balance each other out a little bit. Now we move on to the up-and-down winter that saw several significant snowmelts occur, followed by significant freezes. These freeze-and-thaw cycles have, in my opinion, created a real mess. On the positive side, a fair bit of the snowmelt has occurred. The question is, just how much of this has made its way into the river systems and how much is sitting around as ice? That’s my next point. There is a lot of ice around. All the melting and freezing has created conditions I personally have never seen. The remaining snowpack is nearly solid ice. This means that while there doesn’t look like there is a lot of snow around, there is still a fair bit of water in the ice waiting to melt and run off. Also, with the top layer of soil now saturated — and, with the cold weather, now frozen — any meltwater will quickly run off.

The final piece to the spring flooding puzzle is the weather between now and the end of April. All it takes is one wet storm, or a series of fairly wet storms, to make things go from good to bad. The current mid-range weather models show a fairly active pattern right through to at least the first week of April. Does this mean we’ll see a lot of rain or snow? Not necessarily, but the odds are pretty good we will see some significant precipitation during this period. There will be storm systems around; the question is whether all of the pieces will come together or not — and if they do, will the storm hit us or just miss?

Overall, I would say, all things considered, our spring flooding situation is not looking that good. The government should be coming out with an updated forecast soon and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that most rivers across our region will be upgraded to a high risk of moderate to major spring flooding. Let’s cross our fingers and hope the weather models are wrong and we see near-perfect weather over the next month.

The post Warm February and spring flooding appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

Infrastructure Minister Blaine Pedersen said the report, issued earlier than usual and in addition to the expected late-winter forecast, is necessary because a combination of conditions has led to elevated risk.

“We have experienced some unusual winter weather to this point that has contributed to an expanded risk of overland flooding in Manitoba,” Pedersen said. “At this time, we need to be aware of the potential for flooding with the understanding that we have a couple more months of winter weather and the uncertainty of the spring melt rate.”

Pedersen said the staff at the Manitoba Hydrologic Forecast Centre will continue to assess data over the coming weeks to refine future flood outlooks.

The potential for overland flooding is estimated as moderate to major in most areas of the province. The report notes this could change depending on weather conditions between now and the spring melt, with February and March flood outlooks further defining the flood potential.

At this time, with future unfavourable weather conditions:

• The Red, Souris, Pembina, Lower Assiniboine and Roseau rivers and the southwest region of the province are currently at risk for major flooding;
• The Upper Assiniboine River, eastern region, Winnipeg River, northern Manitoba and The Pas regions including the Saskatchewan, Carrot and Swan rivers, are currently at risk for moderate to major flooding, and;
• The Interlake region and the Fisher River are currently at risk for moderate flooding.

Flood forecasters look at six primary factors when assessing long-term prospects for potential spring floods, Pedersen said. In addition to soil moisture at freeze-up, other factors yet to be determined are winter snow, spring rain, how fast the snow melts, the depth of frost, and river and lake levels prior to spring run-off.

The provincial agency isn’t the only organization that’s keeping close tabs on the issue. The Assiniboine River Basin Initiative is watching the coming spring very carefully too, according to ARBI chair Allan Preston.

“While it is much too early to accurately forecast what spring may herald in terms of flooding, this winter’s heavy snowfall across the Souris River sub-basin in particular, coupled with saturated soil conditions over the entire Assiniboine basin, certainly have begun to raise some potential concerns,” Preston said.

Preston also said ARBI is determined to better understand the water movement across the basin and to help identify best practices for adaptability and resilience. One such model is the Manitoba Forage and Grassland Association (MFGA)’s Aquanty project. It will model the effects of flood and drought on soils and topography as well as simulating various mitigation measures to lessen flood and drought event impacts on agricultural lands.

The Manitoba government and municipalities are continuing to prepare for spring flooding. This includes working with municipal emergency management teams to review existing emergency response plans and sharing information through conference calls and flood information seminars in Morris, Brandon and Selkirk.

The first full flood outlook is expected at the end of February.

The post Province warns of flood risk appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

“The government is dragging its feet, keeping it slow,” said Kevin Yuill, who saw 200 acres of winter wheat submerged during the spring of 2012.

His property is located about three miles north of Highway 227 on the west bank of the diversion, which had its capacity temporarily increased to 33,000 cubic feet of water per second during 2011 flooding, resulting in the emergency fortification of the diversion.

A statement of claim filed with Winnipeg’s Court of Queen’s Bench alleges that the province’s decision to divert an “excessive volume of water” into Lake Manitoba via the Portage Diversion “caused flooding in and around the plaintiffs’ properties and businesses.”

A spokesman for Steve Ashton, Manitoba’s minister of infrastructure and transportation (MIT), said the minister could not comment on the lawsuit as it’s still before the courts.

But in 2013, the province issued a report titled, 2011 Flood: Technical Review of Water Levels. In it, the authors assert that “virtually all property damage around Lake Manitoba occurred while the lake was below natural levels.”

Those who have joined the class-action lawsuit, disagree.

Alex McDermid is named as a plaintiff in the suit, and represents impacted business owners.

Prior to 2011, McDermid and his two sons owned and operated the Sunshine Resort campground near St. Laurent. Not so today.

“I’m hoping, if I could get… another $100,000 I would be able to maybe do something with the campground,” he said. “Because right now it’s finished, there’s no water, no power, no trees, everything has been wiped away.”

The province has compensated him for the loss of his home, McDermid said, but not for the loss of his business.

• More from the Manitoba Co-operator: Government says no new compensation for old flood

Like others participating in the lawsuit, he feels that the provincial government sacrificed those who live, work and farm in rural areas for the sake of those living in Winnipeg.

“They only care about what’s within the city of Winnipeg, as long as they can keep those votes, they’re happy, and the rest us they don’t care about,” said Yuill. “We still haven’t been compensated.”

According to a government official, the Lake Manitoba Flood Assistance program has paid out $108,914,010 in claims to date.

Approximately 13,000 claims were filed and 2.5 per cent of those claims were appealed.

Yuill said that the compensation provided hasn’t fully covered the costs affected landowners incurred.

The post Flooded Lake Manitoba landowners still seeking additional compensation appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

Summary

• Temperatures are forecast to rise through the Red River Valley in Manitoba over the next few days, with five to 15 millimetres of precipitation over Friday and Saturday.
• The crest of the Red River is now predicted to reach Emerson Friday or Saturday with a flow rate of approximately 35,000 cubic feet per second (cfs). Depending on the total precipitation over that time, the crest is expected to reach Winnipeg with a flow of approximately 40,000 cfs about four to five days after it reaches Emerson.  The Red River from Emerson downstream to Winnipeg remains within its banks along its entire length and ice cover remains intact.
• The Manitoba government is working closely with the City of Winnipeg in preparing for the crest on the Red River.
• The Manitoba government, in conjunction with the city, may stage equipment at strategic locations in the city and has identified several potential launch sites for the Amphibexes to ensure a rapid response if the threat of ice jams increases.
• The province also has considerable flood-fighting supplies available to assist the city if requested, including water-filled flood barriers, Hesco barriers and sandbag-making machines.
• The City of Winnipeg reports sandbags have been made available to homeowners whose properties are currently at risk.
• A high water advisory continues for the Whitemud River, from Steel Bridge to Lake Manitoba due to the potential for ice jams.
• A high water advisory continues for the Assiniboine River, from Griswold to Portage la Prairie due to the potential for ice jams and associated flooding.
• The Portage Diversion is operating for management of ice on the lower Assiniboine River.  Channel flows are near 2,950 cfs.  Portage Reservoir inflows and upstream conditions are being monitored to inform operating decisions.

Ice Conditions

• Ice conditions are being monitored throughout the province.
• The ice remains solid on much of the Red River outside of the city of Winnipeg and its tributaries.
• The ice remains solid on much of the downstream reaches of the Assiniboine River and its tributaries.
• The warming conditions will increase the rate of breakup.  The warmer temperatures may also create surface run-off and pooling or minor localized flooding.

Spring Safety

• People are reminded to be watchful of local waterways as flood conditions can develop quickly and ice conditions may be unsafe and to stay away from heavy equipment that may be working around waterways, especially if the equipment is in motion.
• Stay away from ice and water, and not to drive or walk through fast moving water.
• Call 511 to check road conditions before travelling.

Questions or concerns about flooding or water management should be directed first to the municipal authority.  Anyone with questions about water levels, provincial waterways or provincial water control infrastructure can call 204-945-8373 between 8 a.m. and 4 p.m., seven days a week.

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