During a recent Soy Canada webinar, industry representatives pointed to a roughly 70-cent-per-bushel difference between western Canadian soybeans and comparable U.S. supplies moving through Pacific Northwest export channels.

WHY IT MATTERS: Getting paid closer to full value for soybeans could make a meaningful difference to farm profitability.

In some cases, that gap shows up in stark terms and underlines its arbitrary nature.

Brian Innes, Soy Canada’s executive director, pointed to one producer farming on both sides of the Manitoba–North Dakota border who sees markedly different prices for soybeans grown only a short distance apart.

The determining factor is simply which side of the international boundary they are sold. That gap has become part of the industry’s broader argument that Canadian soybeans are not always being valued for what they are actually worth.

What’s behind the gap?

Much of the difference in price is said to be linked to protein.

Innes said western Canadian soybeans have long faced a reputation for lower and less stable protein than competing supplies. That affects how buyers view the crop before it ever reaches a vessel.

Soy Canada makes the case for looking at overall performance, rather than just one marker.

Lesley Nernberg, an animal nutritionist with Lighthouse Agri-Solutions, told webinar participants that crude protein, while still the main benchmark used in the market, does not tell the whole story when it comes to feed value.

“The difference between how nutritionists and purchasers think is potentially leaving a lot of money on the table for Canadian growers and processors,” he said.

Purchasers tend to focus on crude protein, moisture and other straightforward specs. Animal nutritionists, by contrast, are looking more closely at amino acids and energy — the components that determine how well a feed ingredient actually performs in a ration.

Nernberg argued those deeper measures can matter as much as protein. He pointed to U.S. and international work showing that amino acid availability, digestibility and sucrose levels can be attractive to customers.

“These start to create cost advantages for feed millers,” he said, adding northern-grown soybeans may offer nutritional benefits that are not being fully recognized.

Research is suggesting Canadian soybean meal may be more competitive on those deeper nutritional measures than systems based on crude protein alone indicate, said Nernberg. If that holds, not only is crude protein is an incomplete measure of value, but the market may be pricing Canadian soybeans on one measure, while end users are deriving value from another.

The challenge is getting the market to reflect that value.

Can better data close the gap?

Canada has far less publicly available compositional data on soybean meal than competitors such as the U.S., Brazil and Argentina. That means fewer Canadian comparisons in the literature and fewer tools to help buyers look past a simple protein number.

Innes said that is part of what Soy Canada is trying to address.

In a followup interview, he said there are really two parts to the issue. One is the actual quality and consistency of soybeans being delivered over time. The other is how the value of those soybeans is measured and understood in the market.

In other words, some of the discount comes from the reputation western Canadian soybeans have built over time. Some of it also comes from the fact that Canada has a thinner dataset to show what those beans are worth beyond crude protein.

That is why Soy Canada sees better data as part of the solution.

The organization itself does not directly fund research, but Innes said Canadian groups are building out Prairie-specific data, drawing in part on similar research in the northern U.S. Soy Canada has been working to connect different parts of the value chain and identify where new information could be most useful.

Innes pointed to the role of Manitoba Pulse and Soybean Growers, among others, in supporting work that could help better define the value of Canadian soybeans and communicate that to export customers.

Better data will not erase the price gap on its own, he said, but it could help ensure Canadian soybeans are being valued more accurately.

What it means on the farm

For farmers, the more immediate question is what that kind of gap means on the ground.

Darren Bond, a farm business management specialist with Manitoba Agriculture, said the difference is far from trivial.

At typical Prairie soybean yields, a 70-cent-per-bushel price gap works out to roughly $30 an acre.

“That’s definitely nothing to sneeze at,” Bond said.

In Manitoba’s latest cost-of-production guide, soybeans were the only major crop projected to show a positive return when fully costed, at roughly $2 an acre.

Add another $30 an acre on top of that, Bond said, and the picture changes quickly.

“That $30 an acre is pure profit.”

Bond said soybeans already benefit from lower fertilizer costs than crops like wheat or canola because they typically require little or no nitrogen. That has been one of the biggest reasons they looked more attractive this year. Higher yields, stronger genetics and better management have also helped improve the crop’s economics in Manitoba.

A better price would only add to that advantage.

Would that mean a major jump in acres? Possibly.

A stronger price signal would clearly improve the crop’s competitiveness, especially in a province where soybeans have already become an important part of the farm business mix. But Bond said there are other considerations, including freight, weather, rotation and market access. He also noted western Canadian soybeans are still relatively new in the broader market sense. Many Manitoba growers have only been producing them for 15 to 20 years, which means the crop still lacks some of the long track record and market familiarity seen in longer-established U.S. growing regions.

That relative newness feeds back into the same problem Nernberg identified: fewer years of data, fewer established expectations and fewer tools to show buyers what Canadian soybeans can deliver.

For Soy Canada, that is where the opportunity lies.

“The goal is to narrow the gap between the actual value for the animal and what customers perceive that value to be,” said Innes.

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Terry Reilly, an independent analyst, said soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade is the commodity most closely following the lead of crude oil, with the latter almost touching US$120 per barrel earlier this week. The May soyoil contract closed at 67.16 U.S. cents per pound on March 11, up 3.57 cents or 5.6 per cent from the week before.

While corn, soybean and wheat prices won’t be as closely tied to crude oil as soyoil, Reilly said their movement will still be determined elsewhere.

“The outside markets will continue to drive the markets for at least until when the conflict starts to wind down,” he added. “Fertilizer is going to be heavily impacted and it will drive up the costs for farmers across the globe. It’s shifting some ideas and we could see less acres go into the ground this spring across North America.”

There was also speculation the United States Environmental Protection Agency may submit its 2026 renewal fuel standard later this week, which could increase the need for corn (ethanol) and soybeans (biodiesel). However, Reilly doesn’t anticipate any increased demand.

“Currently, the prices of some of the feed stocks like canola oil going to California or (used cooking oil) and tallow, their prices are at a discount to soybean oil,” he explained. “I don’t see any greater demand for alternative fuel sources, but no doubt we’ll probably be blending as much ethanol as we can.”

Reilly added he was surprised to see the U.S. Department of Agriculture trim projected soyoil use for biofuel by 800 million pounds at 14 billion in its monthly supply/demand estimates released on March 10. But there were little changes to projected U.S. corn, soybean and wheat stocks. While Reilly thought corn and soybean exports were “on the low side”, he believes the trade is more focused on new crop plantings.

“We still have several months to go until the end of the regular crop year,” Reilly said. “But either way, U.S. soybean stocks are expected to be pretty tight at the end of the season as China continues to buy U.S. beans.”

The war in Iran will continue to leave the trade guessing and keep prices higher, Reilly stated, adding that some analysts believe crude oil could surpass US$150/barrel. However, prices should stabilize once the war ends.

“I think after things start to cool down a little bit, I’d look for prices to get lower,” he said.

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Scott Capinegro, hedging specialist for AgMarket.net, said May corn was approaching a February low but is setting itself up for a March rally. As for wheat, he said funds were short and technicals were conducive for rallies the past week.

Soybeans’ rise can be attributed to rallying soyoil, of which the May contract had a weekly gain of 1.58 cents per pound. But the White House is expected to announce its biodiesel fuel blend in the coming days.

“That one could end up being ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact,’” he said. “We’re racing to meet a self-imposed deadline by the end of March. We’ve already put that rally into the market.”

Exports also should be giving support to corn and soybeans, said Capinegro.

“The corn exports continue to be good, but the corn market does act sloppy. We are breaking to the lower end of the range (in March corn). As for soybeans, it’s China, China, China,” he said, adding that the U.S. is waiting for Lunar New Year celebrations to end before shipping more beans to China.

The United States Department of Agriculture will host its 2026 Agricultural Outlook Forum from Feb. 19 to 20 in Arlington, Va. Capinegro said many are expecting projected corn acres to be trimmed while those for soybeans are raised. However, one grain’s loss could benefit two major crops.

“Are they taking into consideration (the loss) of a lot of rice acres down south?” he said. “They’re going into corn and beans.”

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New Trump/Xi deal

“Today’s story is … China agreed with Trump over the phone to buy 20 million tonnes of soybeans instead of 12 million,” said Ryan Ettner, broker with Allendale Inc. in McHenry, Ill.

On a Feb. 4 phone call, United States President Donald Trump discussed several matters with Chinese President Xi Jinping, including agriculture.

Afterward, Trump posted on Truth Social that “… the consideration by China of the purchase of additional Agricultural products including lifting the Soybean count to 20 Million Tons for the current season (They have committed to 25 Million Tons for next season!)…”

Previous deal

In the fall, Trump and Xi agreed that China would buy 12 million tonnes of old crop U.S. soybeans. China made those acquisitions a lot quicker than the market expected and is now set to buy another eight million tonnes before the end of the 2025/26 soybean marketing year.

During that fall meeting, China agreed to purchase 25 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans for the next three years.

Bean prices higher

Over the course of the week ended Feb. 4, March soybeans at the Chicago Board of Trade had a net gain of 17.25 cents at US$10.9225 per bushel. March soyoil climbed 1.35 cents at 55.66 cents per pound, but March soymeal shed US$1.20 at US$296.20 per short ton.

USDA likely won’t cut export forecast

Ettner said the Feb. 4 U.S.-China agreement could have an affect on the Feb. 10 supply and demand estimates from the Department of Agriculture. He suggested the USDA was most likely set to lower some of its export forecasts, including that for soybeans.

“Now we get this China agreement and there really isn’t a reason why we would expect them to lower exports,” Ettner said. “That may mean they leave all of the numbers pretty close to January’s.”

In last month’s S/D report, the USDA lowered 2025/26 soybean exports to 42.86 million tonnes from 44.50 million in December. However, that’s still down significantly from 2024/25 exports of 51.22 million tonnes.

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The March contract gained C$8.90 per tonne during the week ended Feb. 4 at C$659.10. During the Feb. 4 session, it reached a high of C$660, which was the highest price seen for the contract since Dec. 2, 2025. On the same day, United States President Donald Trump announced that China committed to purchase 20 million tonnes of soybeans this marketing year, supporting vegetable oil prices.

Tony Tryhuk, director of futures trading with RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg, said China’s agreement to reduce and eliminate tariffs on Canadian canola was already factored into prices despite the agreement not coming into effect until March 1.

“No doubt the lifting the trade restrictions (by) China had a very positive effect on values,” Tryhuk explained. “Even on a day like (Feb. 4), there was positive news coming out of the U.S.”

The move above C$650/tonne in the March contract was also supportive from a chart standpoint.

“There was some pretty good resistance around that C$650 area. We managed to break above that,” he added. “Anybody who was short, thinking those highs were going to remain in place because of the very burdensome carryout we’re still projecting this year, those people are now in a position to buy back those positions and cover them.”

March soybeans gained 17.25 cents per bushel at US$10.9225 during the week, while March soyoil rose 1.35 cents per pound at 55.66. Tryhuk said it was “baffling” to see the Chicago soy complex move higher despite the upcoming record South American soybean harvest.

“It’s counterintuitive to see our market being as strong as we are,” he said. “You can look to the energy market. Biodiesel offered potential there, being a driver. Crude oil was trading at US$58 (per barrel) and it’s now at US$65.”

As traders start to roll their March positions into May, Tryhuk thinks the next resistance level for March canola will be C$675/tonne.

“(There was) pretty good resistance there back in early November. It looks to me a target price if the U.S. market can continue to be supportive to canola values.

“We need that updraft in order to get that market higher because by the time this deal is signed with China, it’s very late in the marketing year. If they don’t reach a two million-tonne export projection … our carryout will still be substantial, in the four million-tonne range,” he said.

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March soybeans rose 10.5 U.S. cents per bushel over the past week at US$10.75, while March corn gained 8.25 cents at US$4.30/bu. March Chicago wheat surged 28.25 cents to close at US$5.36/bu., its Kansas City hard red wheat counterpart added 22.25 cents at US$5.4225/bu. and March Minneapolis spring wheat was up 10.25 cents at US$5.74/bu.

Jack Scoville of The Price Futures Group in Chicago said cold temperatures ahead of the storm’s arrival may have damaged crops in winter wheat-growing areas, putting a weather premium on prices.

“(Winterkill) was probably the biggest impact,” Scoville said, adding that lower winter wheat prices earlier this month were setting up for a rally eventually.

U.S. President Donald Trump recently threatened a number of countries, including Iran, Greenland and Canada, reducing confidence in the U.S. dollar. As a result, the currency weakened against its international counterparts. However, a lower dollar means cheaper exports and increased buying interest.

For the week ended Jan. 15, U.S. soybean and corn export sales reached marketing-year highs of 2.45 million tonnes and 4.01 million, respectively, said the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Wheat export sales exceeded trade expectations for the week at 618,100 tonnes.

“Both those numbers are very high. They did support commercial demand and they are supporting commercial demand now,” Scoville said. “If the U.S. dollar stays weak, I imagine (export) sales will be stronger.”

He anticipated prices to become stronger in the next week and beyond. The March soybean contract could surpass the US$11/bu. level just in time before the South American soybean harvest enters the markets. The March corn contract could move up to US$4.45/bu, Scoville added.

“(March Chicago) wheat could move back to (November 2025) highs, US$5.60 to US$5.65/bu. Prices would be up across the board,” he said.

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Ettner said there were some surprises in the monthly supply and demand report from the United States Department of Agriculture released on Jan. 12. The moves in the three commodities have largely settled down.

“On the corn side, they raised harvested acres by 1.3 million,” Ettner said on Jan. 14. “There weren’t too many people talking about harvested (corn) acreage ahead of the report.”

The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates increased its call on harvested corn acres for 2025/26 to 91.3 million and nudged up the national yield by 0.5 of a bushel per acre to 186.5.

For soybeans, Ettner said it was a little bit of a surprise that the USDA cut exports by 16 million bushels at nearly 1.58 billion.

“The 16 million was larger than expected,” he said.

The changes to wheat weren’t much of a surprise either, Ettner added, noting that the market “presold” those ideas well before the WASDE was released and the reaction was toned down.

Ettner said that with the new carryouts for soybeans, corn and wheat, their prices have adjusted close to their fair values.

“There’s really not much of a need to move up or down based on carryouts,” he said, noting that some short-term movement could come from notable changes to exports or on fresh news that’s significant.

“The next sizeable report for a move will be the March 31 acreage report,” he added.

As for U.S. soybean export sales to China, Ettner said he’s confident that the latter will meet the 12 million tonnes of purchases by the end of February.

“Most of the commentary make it sound like it won’t happen or reasons why we think it won’t happen,” Ettner said. “I haven’t seen a buying pace slow enough to doubt it. Now with the lower price (for soybeans) we may even see them pick up the pace.”

Reports indicated China is believed to have bought about 10 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans over the last two and a half months. That leaves China with six weeks to acquire the remainder.

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Tom Lilja, an analyst for Progressive Ag in Fargo, N.D., said the January report will be especially important as it typically finalizes the yield figures for the current growing year. This year, he expects reduced yields for U.S. corn and soybeans.

“There was a fair amount of rust pressure in Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee, through some of those areas,” Lilja said.

As for wheat, current and future crops may also see declines.

“Probably the biggest expectation (for wheat) is that the U.S. is set to lose (1.3) million acres of planted wheat this year just due to poor market price,” he added. “There were a number of in-state reports that showed very sharp declines in (winter wheat) conditions … We saw a decline of 26 per cent (good to excellent) in Colorado. Nebraska was down 14 per cent, Oklahoma was down nine per cent, Texas was down six per cent and Kansas was down two per cent.”

Lilja also heard that safrinha corn plantings in Brazil could be delayed as a knock-on effect of late soybean plantings due to high soil moisture.

“If that does happen and that weather does become a factor, I would anticipate strength in the corn market,” he said.

March corn, soybean and wheat contracts, except for Minneapolis spring wheat, all saw weekly gains on Jan. 7. While the March corn contract ended the day at US$4.4675 per bushel, Lilja said a two to three bushel per acre cut in corn yield could push the futures past US$4.55/bu.

He said the upcoming reports may already be priced into the markets by the trade, but Lilja warned a possible truce between Russia and Ukraine could potentially put more corn and wheat into the market.

“(Russia’s invasion of Ukraine) is one of the reasons our corn exports have been well above-average this year because Ukraine has been limited in shipping,” he explained.

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• · The January soybean contract lost 33 U.S. cents per bushel week-to-week to close at US$10.5825 on Dec. 17, while the March contract pulled back 32.25 cents at US$10.69.
• · March Chicago soft wheat fell 23.25 cents at US$5.0625, while March Kansas City hard red wheat declined 15.5 cents at US$5.0775 and March Minneapolis spring wheat dropped 13.25 cents at US$5.62.
• · March corn was down 3.75 cents at US$4.4050.

Scott Capinegro, hedging specialist for AgMarket.net, said that soybeans led the way down as it becomes more apparent China will not fulfill its commitment to purchase 12 million tonnes of soybeans from the United States by either the end of 2025 or February 2026. There is also doubt amongst the trade that China will purchase 25 million tonnes in 2026 and 2027.

“It’s going to be awful tough for (China) to fulfill that. Brazil (soybeans are) so much cheaper than us and it looks like they’re going to have a big crop,” Capinegro said.

Soybeans were at a near-record net long position for the week ended Nov. 18 at 229,625 contracts, the largest since October 2020. However, the U.S. government shutdown last month, which postponed reporting, meant analysts were largely unaware until that week’s Commitment of Traders report was released on Dec. 12.

“It would’ve been nice as brokers and the public to know they were long that many beans. All of a sudden, there was a high that day and down we went,” Capinegro said, adding he is checking the 200-day averages to see if they hold.

A large global wheat crop and increased competition from overseas have resulted in lagging U.S. wheat exports, leading to new contract lows. Meanwhile, Capinegro added that he would like to see March corn bounce off the US$4.35/bu. level.

There will be plenty of uncertainty in the markets when the calendar turns to 2026, Capinegro said, especially after U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Dec. 16 a planned blockade on Venezuelan oil tankers.

“Who knows what that’s going to lead to? If there’s a real disruption, it might be a little bullish for the crude oil market, which could also support the grain market. You have the Supreme Court still yet to rule on tariffs,” he said. “If you took tariffs off, it would rally the market. It makes our farm products a little bit cheaper for the world. A lot of things could play out in the next few weeks.

“Before (2025), we just had tariffs on China. Now we have it on the world … We’re oversupplying the world. Countries are asking which one is the cheapest and that’s where they’ll go.”

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Statistics Canada was expected to release its principal field crop estimates on Dec. 4.

Australia has estimated its canola crop at 7.2 million tonnes, 800,000 tonnes greater than last year. Other than those, there appears to be very little on the horizon threatening to shake up prices for the oilseed.

Barring a Christmas miracle of China removing tariffs on Canadian canola, prices are set to move sideways. January canola has remained inside the $620 to $660 per tonne range since mid-October.

However, that doesn’t mean other comparable oils won’t have an effect on canola prices.

The United States Department of Agriculture reported no soybean shipments to China during the week ended Nov. 27, making the China’s prospects of purchasing 12 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans by the end of the year less and less likely. However, news that six cargoes from the U.S. will load for China this month could boost soybean prices and spill over into canola. Speculation over Chinese purchases may be one of the reasons the January contract has increased by more than US$1 per bushel over the past month.

Soybeans from Brazil can fill China’s needs, but dry conditions in the former could trim soybean output. The recent news of five Brazilian exporters being banned from shipping soybeans into China could also raise U.S. futures in the short-term.

Weather has also played havoc in Indonesia and Malaysia, which produce more than 80 per cent of the world’s palm oil and have fallen victim to severe flooding. Many blame deforestation in those countries to make way for palm plantations for worsening the impact of the floods.

Chicago soyoil, which the canola market tends to follow the closest, may see a boost after India locked in more than 600,000 tonnes of South American soyoil imports for delivery in the middle of 2026. As of Dec. 2, the January contract already rose past its 20-, 50- and 100-day averages, approaching the 53 U.S. cent per pound mark for the first time since September.

While all may be calm in the canola market, there’s a slight chance it won’t take a holiday as 2025 comes to a close.

Wheat market numbers Dec. 3, 2025

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