The report, produced by the Agriculture Financial Services Corporation, noted that planting very likely started in mid-April. The south was furthest along at almost 40 per cent complete, with Peace River about 18 per cent, the central at 14 per cent, the northwest a pinch below four per cent and northeast short of three per cent.

In terms of crops, potatoes were well ahead of all the others at 61 per cent planted. Durum led the cereals at almost 47 per cent, followed by spring wheat at 23 per cent, with barley just short of 19 per cent and oats at five per cent.

The pulses were led by lentils at nearly 39 per cent planted, with dry peas very close behind at 38 per cent, while chickpeas were a distant third at less than 14 per cent.

Among the oilseeds, mustard rated more than 35 per cent in the ground, with flax at less than 19 per cent and canola short of six per cent.

Corn planting was at 32 per cent complete.

In terms of winter crops, the report cited those in the central at 77 per cent good to excellent and the south at 59 per cent. No other regions were listed for winter crops.

Alberta’s surface soil moisture ratings were almost eight per cent poor, over 28 per cent fair, more than 55 per cent good, about eight per cent excellent and less than one per cent excessive.

By region Peace River ranked nearly 53 per cent poor to fair compared to just over 47 per cent good to excellent, while the south was around 40 per cent poor to fair versus nearly 60 per cent good to excellent. The central came in at more than 42 per cent poor to fair compared to almost 58 per cent good to excellent. The northeast was less than 22 per cent poor to fair as opposed to 76 per cent good to excellent. The northwest was over 14 per cent poor to fair versus more than 84 per cent good to excellent.

While there has been less soil erosion due to spring runoff, there has been a little bit more wind erosion.

The post Seeding in Alberta ahead of pace appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

Provincial weather stations picked up hints of moisture in southern Alberta yesterday—with about 1 mm registered at Lethbridge and the St. Mary Reservoir.

Blackie, east of High River, got 11 mm yesterday. Claresholm saw more than 9 mm of precipitation. Further north, Leedale and Rocky Mountain House saw between one and two millimeters of moisture.

In Saskatchewan, Yorkton got about 6 mm of precipitation, as per Environment and Natural Resources Canada. Saskatoon got 9 mm, while North Battleford saw just over 2 mm. Regina registered no precipitation yesterday, though at time of writing a light snow shower was reported to be falling.

The heaviest amounts of precipitation were predicted to fall on northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, said MarketsFarm’s Bruce Burnett in a weather update this morning.

In Manitoba, Winnipeg reported more than 18 mm of precipitation yesterday, Brandon clocked just over 17 mm, and Dauphin saw nearly 23 mm of precipitation, Environment Canada said.

Precipitation over the past week has benefited a limited area of the Prairies, the bulk of which have been drier than normal over the past 30 days.

“The only region reporting a net gain in precipitation was southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan. These areas have reported a net gain of 10 to 25 mm. The rest of the Prairies reported 5 to 25 mm below normal precipitation during the month,” Burnett wrote.

“The current system moving across the Prairies will add more general precipitation which will help improve topsoil moisture conditions.”

While overall soil moisture is extremely dry, topsoil moisture for seeding will be mostly adequate in the next couple weeks, Burnett added.

Yesterday, meteorologist Daniel Bezte forecasted sunny-to-partly-cloudy skies to move into Alberta on Wednesday. Manitoba can expect cloudy skies and occasional flurries into Thursday and Friday before skies finally clear.

The post Snow and rain fall across the Prairies appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

Bruce Burnett, director of crops and weather for MarketsFarm, a division of Glacier FarmMedia, said things get drier as one looks further west in the Prairies, but Manitoba’s soil moisture is good — maybe even verging on too good.

“Soil moisture levels, especially to start the spring, look to be OK, if not maybe a little bit excessive in areas in the eastern Prairies where we’ve had some late season snow, along with a lot of flood waters coming up from the United States,” he said.

Why it matters: Manitoba looks lucky on soil moisture, although temperature might throw a wrench in the works.

Burnett added that winter was relatively mild across the Prairies, with the coolest temperatures seen in the eastern half of the region.

But while Manitoba dodged most of the brutal cold one might expect from a province with a capital nick-named ‘Winter-peg,’ the mercury was also slow to rise as the year crossed what would typically be considered the starting line for the spring melt.

Last month, climatologists marveled that the province made it through March without a single daily high above freezing, distinctly unusual when compared to historical trends.

In terms of soil moisture, cool temperatures in late winter and early spring kept soils frozen, limiting potential for infiltration.

“Fortunately, on a lot of the eastern Prairies, we really did have very good subsoil moisture levels, so it’s not gonna make too big of a difference, not getting the optimal infiltration this year,” Burnett said.

“I think we’re gonna be quite fine. We’ll start off with decent soil moisture levels as we go into the spring seeding season.”

Timi Ojo, agriculture meteorology specialist for Manitoba Agriculture, echoed Burnett.

“I wouldn’t expect that we would have an issue with soil moisture this year,” he said.

“In most places, soils were sitting at about 80 to 100 per cent of their available water holding capacity from the fall.”

The cool start to the growing year likely didn’t do much to affect soil moisture for the season, he added. Nor did late snowstorms that tracked through the province in the first week of April. Soil moisture levels would look similar in a typical spring as they do now, especially with water holding capacity numbers where they now sit, Ojo said.

“Most of the precipitation received over the winter doesn’t actually have a significant impact directly on soil moisture,” he said. “The two main pathways for precipitation are either to infiltrate the soil or to flow over land. And in the spring, one of the things we see is that most of the precipitation is partitioned towards overland runoff.”

Patches of the province have greater soil moisture concerns. Areas near Duck Mountain Provincial Park, for example, were dry in fall 2022, and moisture is a perennial concern in areas with low water-holding capacity soils like the southwest corner around Melita and Pierson.

Even in those areas, Ojo says producers shouldn’t panic.

“I wouldn’t be too worried about it,” he said. “It’s quite early. We expect to have some spring showers coming through.”

Farmers are also unlikely to see seeding delays similar to last year, after the province was hammered with three consecutive Colorado lows. However, a different weather-related issue might hamper efforts to get crops established this year, said Ojo.

With soils still frozen and below-normal temperatures projected between now and June, soil temperature is a potential concern.

“We likely won’t have as much warming as we’d like,” Ojo said, adding that farmers should

“be mindful of that and watch the soil temperature at seeding depth.”

Elsewhere on the Prairies

The soil moisture situation seems reasonable in most of the eastern part of Saskatchewan, except for the extreme southeast corner. Moving west, things are dry.

Matt Struthers is a crop extension specialist with the Moose Jaw office of Saskatchewan Agriculture and editor of the province’s weekly crop report. He said south and west of his location, the moisture picture gets “a little spotty.” Some areas had adequate snowfall this winter and others were relatively bare.

“As you move into the southwest, around Swift Current, Shaunovan and Consul, it’s a bit drier this spring, and they’re likely to need some timely spring rains,” he said.

Speaking with Glacier FarmMedia on April 11, he noted the slower start to spring might be a positive, provided conditions don’t get too late for timely seeding.

“Being that it’s a bit later, that may help conserve that moisture and aid germination once we get that seed into the ground,” he said. “But of course, people, including me, might be a little anxious about how long we might be delayed.”

The past few seasons have been an exercise in managing volatility, he noted. Spring 2021 was very dry. Spring 2022 was extremely wet in the eastern half of the province, and this year there’s a late spring.

“Historically, we’ve been here before. We’ll be here again. I don’t really start to worry until July rolls around and another heat dome sets up,” Struthers said.

He also noted some good news accompanying the slow spring. Cooler weather and moist conditions are likely taking a bite out of grasshopper populations as larvae and nymphs succumb to the conditions.

“Last year this area had a big problem,” he said. “We had a dry spring, it warmed up quickly, and the grasshopper population thrived.”

In Alberta, Laura Richard, an agro-climate analyst with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, says a long, cold winter has made soil moisture detection difficult due to extended snow cover.

Going by winter precipitation, however, soil moisture in southern Alberta looks strong and the rest of the province, particularly the central, northeast and Peace River regions, is going to need a spring recharge as it continues to bounce back from the 2021-22 drought.

“Generally speaking, regions south of Calgary have gotten between 60 and 115 per cent of average precipitation, so those are our areas of real recovery,” she said. “The southern areas also received good fall moisture going into winter.

“Unfortunately, there’s a big swath between Edmonton and Calgary, as well as the northeast, where they’ve only received 40 to 60 per cent of normal precipitation. That’s not dire, but given the dry conditions these areas went into winter with, there’s still some concern over the soil moisture.”

The same goes for parts of the Peace River region.

If there’s any comfort for producers in drier areas, it’s that Alberta farmers generally get spring rains.

“We know for sure that it’s the rains in June and July that really determine the quality of the crops and that’s how Alberta actually gets the majority of its moisture,” said Richard. 

Snowpack generally looks good in dry areas around Edmonton and the Peace River but moisture is difficult to calculate until it’s melted.

Weather watching

Burnett says it’s going to be a balancing act between soil moisture giving crops their start and timely rainfall in the growing season.

“Most of the precipitation that we receive in the Prairies are in the May-June-July-August period,” he said. “If we don’t get normal precipitation during that time frame, and especially if we don’t get it at the right times, then we certainly see crop stress developing.”

Areas with the lowest subsoil moisture are at highest risk.

“The problem with that is we have no, shall we say, capacity to withstand severe periods of drought during the growing season,” Burnett said.

“So if you get into a dry spell in, let’s say, the first three weeks of July, then you see a lot of stress developing in the crops.”

As the season wears on, Burnett will keep an eye on the western part of the Prairies.

“That’s specifically the area I’m most concerned about,” he said.

In the short term, he’ll watch southern Manitoba, particularly the Red River Valley, as it works its way through any flooding issues and the late spring.

“It’s probably going to be about another three or four weeks before some farmers get on the fields, just because of how much moisture there is around,” he said.

Shifting weather patterns are an additional factor. The La Nina phase has ended, to be replaced by a neutral phase that’s likely to be replaced by El Nino.

“So that means that we probably are gonna see a different weather pattern than we’ve been experiencing for the last few years,” Burnett said.

– With files from Don Norman and Jeff Melchior

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However, going into the 2023-24 crop year, the attaché projected the wheat harvest to slip to 13 million tonnes, although they believe the same amount of hectares will be combined at 12.89 million. Yield projections are expected to pull back from 1.27 tonnes per hectare in 2022-23 to 1.01 this coming year.

The attaché explained that while the top wheat-growing regions of Kazakhstan had improved soil moisture levels this April compared to a year ago, there’s been rapid evaporation. As well, the country’s weather outlook from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) calls for higher than normal temperatures, which would then lead to additional moisture loss.

The Astana desk pegged Kazakhstan’s wheat imports for 2023-24 at two million tonnes, the same as the year before. That would bring the country’s total supply to 17.39 million tonnes, down 2.5 million from 2022-23.

Wheat exports were projected to slip back from 10.5 million tonnes in 2022-23 down to nine million in 2023-24, despite China now allowing Kazakhstan to ship its wheat more easily by hopper cars instead being containerized.

Total wheat consumption in 2023-24 was estimated to hold at seven million tonnes, but ending stocks are to drop by one million tonnes at 1.39 million.

The attaché also forecast Kazakhstan barley production to remain largely the same going into 2023-24, at 3.2 million tonnes. Yields are expected to slip from 1.5 tonnes per hectare in 2022-23 to 1.46 in 2023-24.

With a small decline in imports, the country’s total supply is to dip from 3.79 million tonnes in 2022-23 to 3.62 million in 2023-24. Meanwhile exports are to hold at one million tonnes and total consumption is to decrease by 147,000 tonnes at 2.3 million. In the end, the carryover was projected to hold at 324,000 tonnes from year to year.

USDA will not release any official numbers for the 2023-24 crop year until its next round of supply and demand estimates (WASDE) on May 12.

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That’s according to the latest Canadian Drought Monitor from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, as of Oct. 31.

At the end of that month, 72 per cent of the Prairie region was classified as abnormally dry or in moderate to extreme drought, including 80 per cent of the region’s agricultural landscape.

The lack of precipitation, together with poor moisture reserves after two to five years of dryness in many areas, means “winter precipitation across southern Alberta and Saskatchewan will be crucial in order to replenish water supplies and improve hay and pastures lands by the spring,” according to the report.

Temperatures were all reported as higher than average, with the warmest temperatures seen in Alberta, particularly the Peace region.

Although monthly precipitation improved conditions in southern parts of Alberta, the rest of the province remained significantly dry. Very little precipitation fell across central Alberta at an important time for soil moisture recharge to occur, leading to significant expansion of severe drought conditions as well as small pockets of extreme drought.

Southern Saskatchewan did manage to receive slightly higher than normal precipitation after a couple of storm systems passed through near the end of October; however, long-term deficits remained.

In addition to ongoing water supply concerns, nearly half of all hay and pasture lands reported very short topsoil moisture during the month. There were also concerns about germination of winter wheat due to the dry soils, leading some producers to avoid seeding winter wheat or fall rye.

Conditions across Manitoba were closer to normal in October, with slightly above-normal precipitation and near-normal temperatures. However, precipitation continued to miss Swan River along the west-central side of the province where moderate drought conditions were slightly expanded. This area also reported concern for livestock water supplies, but adequate amounts of feed exist to carry cattle over into the spring.

Contrary to the drying trend in western Manitoba, south-central and southeastern parts of the province received adequate precipitation this year, with Winnipeg reporting its wettest year on record with 739.5 millimetres as of Oct. 24, 2022.

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With a gain of 12 points on the week, Alberta Financial Services Corp. (AFSC) estimated 87.6 per cent of the major crops were harvested. While that’s slightly below this time last year, it’s far above the five-year average of 57.3 per cent complete.

In addition to what’s been combined, 14 per cent of crops in Alberta were swathed, with seven per cent remaining untouched.

By region, the south was furthest along in the harvest at 97 per cent finished, followed by the northeast at 90.2 per cent. Next was the central region at 85.5 per cent done, then the Peace region at 81.1 per cent and the northwest at 75.1 per cent.

By crop, dry peas were almost finished, being at 98.6 per cent combined. Spring wheat and barley were in a virtual dead heat at 95.3 and 95.4 per cent respectively. Oats was next at 85.9 per cent complete and canola was 74.8 per cent.

The province continued to become drier, according to AFSC. There’s no longer any region that had excessive moisture and levels in Alberta were all of 26.2 per cent good to excellent. Peace River fared the best at 49.6 per cent good to excellent, then the northwest at 40.9 per cent, central at 32 per cent, the northeast at 22 per cent and the south at only 11 per cent.

Added to that, only a quarter of Alberta’s pasturelands were rated good to excellent. That’s despite significant rainfall in the Peace during the week.

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“In general, broadcast seeding is not recommended,” Anastasia Kubinec, then Manitoba Agriculture’s oilseed specialist, wrote in a 2010 article. “This includes seeding canola by aircraft….If it’s too wet to drive across, it’s too wet to seed with any method.”

Why it matters: A relentlessly wet spring in 2022 has producers wondering how much of a window they will actually have for seeding this year.

It also, the same article noted, comes with “substantial yield reductions when conditions are not optimum for germination,” regardless of the broadcast equipment used. (For a new Manitoba Agriculture fact sheet on the topic, click here.)

If it’s done, though, the experts say the key will be incorporation and getting good seed-to-soil contact — and the producer will have to take crop insurance into account.

Crop insurance

“It’s a two-step process,” David Van Deynze, Manitoba Agricultural Services Corp.’s chief product officer, said May 19. “We won’t insure it unless they at least harrow it (the seed) in. It also needs to achieve a decent stand. It’s those two pieces, but incorporation is probably the biggest key I’d suggest.

“If they used an airplane, they need to tell us that they used an airplane on their seed acreage report, because then we will go and check.”

The below text is an edited version of an article first appearing in Canola Watch. Disclaimer: Canola Watch content is research-based, but broadcast canola seeding is not well researched. These tips are based on experience. A full version of this article can be found on the Canola Watch site.

Setting up for success

by Jay Whetter

Best results for rapid and uniform canola emergence come when seed is placed a half- to one-inch deep into warm, moist soil and packed lightly. However, broadcast seeding can work in a pinch.

Timing

Broadcast seeding in late May could have higher yield potential than waiting two weeks for ground to support the drill.

Manitoba crop insurance data shows canola seeded in Manitoba the first week of June yields 90 per cent of average. Another interpretation is that field conditions still have time to improve and allow for “regular” seeding and decent yield potential.

If by late May or early June, broadcast seeding still appears to be the best solution, the warmer soils should result in rapid germination and seedling establishment.

Seeding rate

With a seeding rate of 10 seeds per square foot, low emergence of 20 per cent will result in two plants per square foot. That’s not great, but not a disaster as long as the stand is relatively uniform.

One study showed an established, uniform canola stand with as few as two plants per square foot generally had higher economic potential than a thicker stand re-seeded late.

If emergence is 80 per cent, the population will be at the top end of the recommended target of five to eight plants per square foot.

A higher plant population field will mature earlier.

Equipment

Floaters or Valmar-based applicators can broadcast canola.

Some applicators have multiple compartments, each with meters, to apply fertilizer and seed at the same time.

Another option is a regular air drill with openers lifted out of the ground. This requires fields firm enough for travel, but it avoids the drag and “mudding in.”

If fields are iffy for firmness, reduce weight by fertilizing later.

Talk to the operator

Broadcasting canola is uncommon, so operators may have little or no experience.

Applied at such low rates, canola presents a metering challenge. The grower may want to be there for the first field to check the seed bin after the first few acres.

If the operator is seeding a lot of acres, ask if they have checked for plugging throughout the airflow distribution system.

Fertilizer

A good-yielding crop needs fertilizer.

Apply at least the recommended rate of phosphorus. Canola plants need early access to phosphorus.

When broadcast, phosphate prills and seed are not always close enough for timely access to fertilizer, so the starter rate is not enough. Use the full recommended rate when broadcasting.

Canola with phosphorus often gets off to a quicker start, which can reduce days to maturity.

Use urease and nitrification inhibitors to limit nitrogen loss, especially when applied on very moist soils.

Consider a slightly lower than recommended nitrogen rate—perhaps 85 to 90 per cent of soil test recommendation—in late May or early June. The full rate could extend the required days to maturity.

Seed soon after blending. When seed and fertilizer are blended hours or days prior to application, fertilizer could reduce canola seed viability.

Fertilizer prills are also abrasive and can remove some of the canola seed treatment. This is especially true for ammonium sulphate.

Ammonium sulphate also has an affinity for moisture and can increase plugging in humid conditions.

Blending phosphorus or urea with canola seed bulks it up, which could make application rates less finicky.

Consider a split fertilizer application. Growers could broadcast their seed, then top up with appropriate the fertilizer if the crop gets established. However, early nutrient access is important for optimal yields, so top dressing should be made as soon as possible after emergence.

If the key barrier to using the drill is the risk of getting stuck pulling a fully-loaded cart, growers could broadcast nitrogen and sulphur, and use the drill just for seed and phosphorus.

High residue risk

With a thick layer of thatch, seed and fertilizer won’t reach the soil. Cultivating ahead of broadcasting could create an equally inhospitable seedbed, with large clods and a crusted soil surface. Fields with thick residue that are too wet for a cultivator or harrows probably shouldn’t be broadcast-seeded.

The ideal harrowing pass will run on a right angle to the floater pass to spread the seed and fertilizer. For this reason, harrow after the floater leaves rather than chase the floater.

Aerial seeding

Pilots can do it, but if the field is too wet for a floater, it’s too wet for harrows and sprayers.

Weed control

Be careful with weed control timing. Seeds on the soil surface are highly vulnerable to herbicide. Do not apply post-seed/pre-emergence glyphosate on Liberty Link and Clearfield canola varieties that have been broadcast and remain on the soil surface.

Roundup Ready varieties can tolerate glyphosate at this early stage.

Yield expectation

Canola Watch reported the following on broadcast seeding yields from 2010 and 2011: “Experience from the past two years of wet conditions in the eastern Prairies has shown that, in general, growers who tried broadcast or aerial methods to get fields seeded had issues all season long with thin stands, uneven maturity, weed control, low fertility and poor yields. Best results from broadcast seeding came from fields that were fertilized early and harrowed to improve seed to soil contact.”

It was noted that if field conditions allow for follow up passes to harrow and apply fertilizer, fields could also soon be ready to seed with the drill.

Farmers still a couple of weeks away from seeding with a drill may want to inquire about a floater as backup just in case further weather delays make drill seeding impractical.

— Jay Whetter is communications director and Canola Watch editor for the Canola Council of Canada.

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As of Tuesday, Alberta Agriculture found seeding in the south was at 36.5 per cent complete, while that in the central region was 5.9 and the rest of the province was 0.1 to 0.6 per cent done.

That’s due to the south being much drier than the rest of Alberta, rated at 31.2 per cent poor, 28.1 fair, 40.3 good and 0.4 excellent. Provincewide, soil moisture levels are 21.7 per cent poor, 28.2 fair, 37.8 good, 11.4 excellent and 0.9 excessive. The Peace River region was the most inundated with at 0.4 per cent poor, 7.5 fair, 27.5 good, 57.2 excellent and 7.4 excessive.

In terms of crops in the ground across Alberta, durum led the way at 52.9 per cent planted, followed by potatoes at 44.8 per cent. Lentils were next at 39.3 per cent, chickpeas 34.4 and dry peas 21.8. The oilseeds and some cereals had slower progress, with mustard at 17.7 per cent complete, barley 13, spring wheat 12.4, flax 11.7, canola 2.3, oats 0.7, and mixed grain 0.5.

Pasture growth across the province was worse off overall when compared to the five-year average. Currently, pastures are 32 per cent poor and 40.8 fair, 25.1 good and 2.1 excellent. The averages are 24.5 per cent poor, 26.7 fair, 44.5 good and 4.3 excellent.

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Mike Fleischhauer of Eagle Commodities Ltd. in Lethbridge said there has been little price movement for the feed grain staple recently as most feedlots are already set for grain for the next few months. Workers at CP agreed March 22 to pursue final and binding arbitration with the railway.

Corn prices “went up a little bit. There’s not a lot moving,” he said. “But the rail (stoppage) ending quickly definitely helped. They’re kind of up-and-down a little bit. Right now, (corn is) at $464 per tonne ($11.79 per bushel).”

By comparison, the high-delivered bid for feed barley in Alberta is $9.80/bu., while feed wheat in Alberta traded as high as $13.88/bu., according to Prairie Ag Hotwire. Fleischhauer added there is not enough volume for both barley and wheat to make feedlots switch from corn.

Rising fuel costs due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine are having very little effect on corn prices, he added, but the lack of snow cover in areas of southern Alberta does not bode well for this year’s grain crop. According to Fleischhauer, some growers are already concerned.

“You get guys that are already starting to scratch a little bit in the fields already,” he said. “We didn’t have a lot of moisture this year in the south…We’ll just have to wait and see what transpires here over the next couple of weeks and see what we have for melt. A slow melt would be great for the (Prairie) provinces as opposed to a quick melt and everything getting dry again.

“Two droughts in two years will keep the markets up for sure,” he added.

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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Typically they’re viewed as an annoyance at best, and a waste at worst. Larger equipment has made draining them more tempting over the years and there’s always the understandable desire to maximize acreage by simply draining them and planting right over them.

But one researcher says that’s simply taking a short-term gain in exchange for what’s looking increasingly like a helping of long-term pain.

Masaki Hayashi, a geoscience professor at the University of Calgary, has been studying the role of these low-lying bits of Prairie topography (see this story from our FarmIt section). In particular he’s looked at how they contribute to replenishing the region’s precious groundwater.

In a semi-arid region like Western Canada, farms typically run a moisture deficit during the growing season of between two and four inches for their typical crops. That makes moisture their most common yield-limiting factor, and what happens with soil moisture outside the growing season extra important.

There are two great periods of recharge for this region. There’s the fall season after crops have been harvested. Without growing plants in the soil, that rainfall can infiltrate the soil and then await the next crop in the spring.

Then there’s the annual snowmelt. This is the area Hayashi has looked most closely at, and it’s a very important annual event for the region’s groundwater recharge, and it’s these low-lying depressions in the topography that make it possible.

Every winter a significant amount of precipitation falls onto the landscape and awaits the spring melt. Take the Brandon area, for example, where in an average year 37.5 inches of snow comes down.

Equating that to rainfall isn’t easy, because as anyone who’s seen snow fall knows, that snow can be wet, dry and all gradations in between. But most online snow-to-rain calculators (yes, they’re a thing) suggest that would mean Brandon has between just under three inches and just under five inches of water arriving every spring.

In the natural, pockmarked ecosystem, that melt water would pool in these low spots. Some would stay full all summer long, but others would simply hold the water until the underlying soil had melted, allowing it to infiltrate the earth.

When those low-lying areas are drained, they can no longer provide that service. Which shortens the trip that water takes to a ditch, then stream, and river, and ultimately to somewhere in Hudson’s Bay, where it won’t do agriculture in Manitoba much good.

So the question farmers need to ask themselves when they drain a wetland is, how much is that water worth to them?

It certainly helps boost production around a wetland during a dry year. Cattle producers can, no doubt, attest to that.

And during a dry cycles, subsoil moisture is frequently the deciding factor between a wreck and a decent crop that comes off despite the odds.

Catching every last drop of snowmelt could become even more important over the coming years and decades.

Climate change and its effect on agriculture is still a muddy issue. Some studies, like one released by Agriculture Canada in late 2019, suggest it could be a boon for Prairie crops like wheat and canola, with yields in some parts of the region increasing by as much as 30 per cent, especially in its northern margins.

But that study came with an enormous caveat — it was limited to calculating the effect of higher carbon dioxide levels and didn’t take into account the effect of weather events like hail, flood and, crucially, drought.

It’s a combine-sized loophole and it ignores the risks most researchers see — and those risks include warmer and shorter winters, with less opportunity for that snowpack to accumulate.

As researcher Hayashi points out in the article, that will likely mean a sizable reduction in that spring recharge year after year, which will mean less resiliency for the overall agriculture system and less opportunity for things like irrigation expansion as aquifers fall.

Here in Manitoba we’ve got a few examples of water management that address this question. The Deerwood Soil and Water Management Association’s small dam projects along the escarpment come to mind.

At least one research at the Winnipeg offices of the International Institute for Sustainable Development has long promoted the idea of catchment ponds adjacent to farm fields.

These are all ideas worth considering. But it’s unclear whether there’s enough time, money and energy available to recreate the work of Mother Nature.

Perhaps society would be better served by preserving — and paying for that preservation if necessary — of the natural infrastructure that remains on the region’s farm fields.

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