“Stavropol’s grain harvest exceeded 8.5 million tons. So, this year we’ll definitely have enough bread,” Stavropol Governor Vladimir Vladimirov wrote on his Telegram channel. He said 85 per cent of the grain-sown area had been harvested.

Three Russian grain traders, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters that the first new-crop grain from Stavropol is actively entering the market.

Slow start for new crop exports

Russia’s export volumes fell to their lowest level since 2008 at the start of July due to a late start of the harvesting campaign, and some European traders told Reuters that slow sales of new crop wheat were disrupting the ship loadings at Russia’s Black Sea ports.

Stavropol, the region next to the Caucasus Mountains, is on track to become Russia’s top grain- and wheat-producing region this year after drought hit Rostov, the steppe region along the Don River.

Rostov Governor Yuri Slyusar told the TASS news agency that the grain harvest forecast in the region had been cut by 30 per cent to 8 million tons because of the drought, with about one-fifth of the seeded area there damaged.

In Krasnodar, another top-three grain-producing region, which borders Rostov in the north and Stavropol in the east, a better crop in the south is expected to compensate for losses from drought in the north.

“We expect that the regions where weather conditions were more favourable will help partially compensate for the losses through a high yield,” Governor Veniamin Kondratyev wrote on Telegram.

He estimated the collected grain crop at 8.5 million tons and said the harvesting campaign will be over this week.

Expected to remain top wheat exporter

The governors provided no data on what share of the collected grain was wheat, but in previous years the biggest share of the three regions’ seeded area was under wheat. Russia is expected to remain the world’s largest wheat exporter.

Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy, said the new-crop grain is coming mostly from southern regions, not central Russia, where the weather has been better and which is expected to compensate for crop losses in the south.

“Every day we see that the inflow of grain to the terminals is increasing,” Rylko said. He noted that, for the moment, there is a shortfall of new grain to cover fresh contracts but expects the gap to disappear within one or two weeks.

The Agriculture Ministry forecasts this year’s grain harvest at 135 million tons, including 90 million tons of wheat. This figure includes grain from Russian-controlled territories of Ukraine, which analysts do not include in their estimates.

As drought ravages Russia’s key agricultural regions, including Rostov, which supplied 12 per cent of Russian wheat in 2024, the official estimate is in doubt. President Vladimir Putin has said publicly that there are questions over this year’s harvest.

—Additional reporting by Mikhael Hogan in Hamburg

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Winter crops account for 90 per cent of wheat production in Russia, the world’s top exporter of the grain. Analysts have been reducing their 2025 wheat harvest and export forecasts following reports that more than 37 per cent of winter crops are in poor condition or have failed to sprout.

The weather agency said snow cover in the Central and Volga regions had reached 28-30 cm (11-11.8 inches), but that the probability of much colder spells is low – creating a risk of potential plant damage due to excessive wetness.

Continued growth during winter weakens winter crop sprouts, leading to unnecessary consumption of sugar and energy.

The Central area includes Voronezh, Russia’s fifth-biggest grain producer, and Kursk, Russia’s seventh-largest grain-producing region. The Volga area includes Saratov, the country’s No. 6 grain-producing region.

The agency added that conditions for winter crops in the Southern area, which includes Russia’s largest grain-producing regions, Rostov and Krasnodar, would be satisfactory, although the level of moisture in the soil is expected to remain low.

—Reporting by Olga Popova

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The measures will enable affected farmers to seek compensation. Kursk is Russia’s seventh largest grain producing region. It has also suffered from a major Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s territory, which started on Aug. 6.

Russia Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said on Oct. 7 that the country’s grain harvest would be hit by the impact of Ukraine’s attacks on grain-producing regions close to the border and by bad weather in many other regions.

Kursk Governor Alexei Smirnov said in September that, after the incursion, the harvesting of grains could not be completed on an area of 160,000 hectares. He estimated the damage at almost $1 billion (C$1.4 billion).

The Russian National Union of Agricultural Insurers reported in early October that in 2024 there were 29 weather-related emergencies that resulted in crop damage recorded in 26 regions of the country, a 45 per cent increase compared to last year.

Russia plans to harvest 130 million tons of grain, down from an earlier forecast of 132 million tons. The new estimate is a an 12 per cent drop from 148 million tons in 2023 and a 18 per cent drop from a record 158 million tons in 2022.

— Reporting for Reuters by Olga Popova

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The move had been expected, after the agriculture minister said this week that she hoped it would be introduced and that it would pave the way for insurance claims by farmers.

The emergencies ministry said it applied to 10 regions including Luhansk, a part of eastern Ukraine that Russia claimed as its own territory in 2022, months after launching its invasion.

The ministry said commissions had been created in the affected regions to assess damage.

Russian Deputy Agriculture Minister Andrei Razin said earlier on Friday that the impact of weather problems on agricultural output would be minimized and that Moscow would fulfil all of its export commitments, the state TASS news agency reported.

Agricultural consultancy IKAR has cut its forecast for Russia’s wheat crop this year to 81.5 million metric tons, a drop of 12 per cent since mid-March. Last year’s harvest was around 93 million tons.

“It is a question of speeding up the procedure for farmers to receive compensation, as well as knocking out additional money for them,” IKAR head Dmitry Rylko said this week before the emergency was introduced.

Andrey Sizov of the Sovecon consultancy said rapidly deteriorating prospects for the crop, combined with rising domestic prices, meant the risk of additional restrictions on grain exports had, however, increased.

“I don’t think the Ministry of Agriculture itself wants such restrictions,” he added.

Sovecon this week cut its wheat crop forecast to 80.7 million tons. Back in March, it was projecting a crop of 94 million tons.

Russia banned grain exports in 2010 after drought and wildfires devastated its harvest, leading to a surge in global prices. The wheat crop that year, however, totalled just 41.5 million tons, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, around half the projected total for this season.

—Reporting for Reuters by Mark Trevelyan; Editing by Toby Chopra

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Frosts have damaged crops in many regions this year while there has also been a drought in some areas, leading analysts to downgrade forecasts for this year’s harvest.

Agriculture minister Oksana Lut said on Monday that Russia may declare a nationwide emergency possibly, as soon as the end of this week. Emergency regimes have already been introduced in 11 regions.

Igor Pavensky, Rusagrotrans’ marketing director, estimated that the drought and May frosts affected regions that account for up to 40 per cent of Russia’s winter wheat area.

“It (exports) will probably not be as widespread as in the current season,” Sergeуchuk said, speaking during the St. Petersburg international economic forum.

VTB is one of Russia’s largest lenders to the agricultural sector.

Sergeуchuk said Russia was present in grain markets such as Mexico, Indonesia and Vietnam in the current season where other exporters usually play a big role while adding it would try to ensure it continued to play a leading role in supplying the Global South.

Russian grain exports this season, which will end in less than a month, have already totalled 65 million metric tons to date, with a record 70 million tons expected at the end of the season, Sergeуchuk said.

The Ministry of Agriculture has forecast that in the 2024/25 season grain exports from Russia will amount to about 60 million tons.

Russia is the world’s largest exporter of wheat.

According to analytical agency ProZerno data, from July to November 2023 the largest importers of Russian grain were Turkey (over 3.5 million tonnes) and Egypt (2.7 million tonnes).

Russia supplied about 700,000 tonnes of grain to Indonesia, nearly 382,000 tonnes to Mexico, and just over 131,000 tonnes to Vietnam. All of them bought wheat, Vietnam also bought corn.

VTB officially exited the grain business a year ago, announcing the sale of a stake in Demetrа, one of the largest grain holdings.

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The tariffs will be 95 euros ($102.76) per ton for cereals and 50 per cent for oilseeds. Tariffs will also apply to beet-pulp pellets and dried peas. The ministers’ decision follows a proposal from the European Commission on March 22.

The measure quickly drew Russian disapproval.

“The new messages from the EU will yet have to be analysed. But their ideology is clear – they want to squeeze Russia out of everything,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told reporters at a weekly briefing.

Vincent Van Peteghem, the finance minister of Belgium, which holds the rotating presidency of the EU, said the new tariffs were intended to stop imports of grain from Russia and Belarus into the EU “in practice”.

“These measures will therefore prevent the destabilisation of the EU’s grain market, halt Russian exports of illegally appropriated grain produced in the territories of Ukraine and prevent Russia from using revenues from exports to the EU to fund its war of aggression against Ukraine,” he said.

Russia exported 4.2 million metric tons of cereals, oilseeds and derived products to the EU in 2023, worth 1.3 billion euros ($1.4 billion). This represented about one per cent of the EU market.

The Commission has said there was a risk that imports could increase, given Russian overall wheat exports had risen to 50 million tons from the usual 35 million tons.

EU ministers said the increase in customs duties would not harm global food security as it would not affect the transit of the products through EU territory to third countries.

—Reporting for Reuters by Jan Strupczewski, additional reporting by Dmitry Antonov in Moscow

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Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) March wheat settled down 4-1/2 cents at $5.21-1/2 per bushel (all figures US$). CBOT March corn ended down 1-3/4 cents at $3.77 a bushel while March soybeans finished one cent higher at $9.16 a bushel.

Wheat futures turned down as traders booked profits after the March contract climbed to $5.29, its highest since Dec. 19. The market has drawn support from expectations of a pickup in export demand as Russian supplies dwindle.

Even though Russian wheat remains cheaper than U.S. grain, the discount has tightened to about $15 a tonne on a free-on-board basis, from more than $50 a tonne in August, according to Refinitiv Eikon data.

“This could provide an opportunity for U.S. wheat to make its way into Asia and the Middle East,” said Phin Ziebell, agribusiness economist at National Australia Bank.

Traders showed little reaction to a plunge in temperatures across the U.S. farm belt. Recent snows should insulate much of the dormant U.S. winter wheat crop, although wintry conditions may slow the movement of grain on roads and rivers.

“Despite the extreme cold expected in the Midwest, winterkill threats are fairly limited, as snowfall is expected to be sufficient in most areas,” Radiant Solutions said in a client note.

CBOT soybean futures drew support from news that Brazil’s Parana state, the country’s second-largest soybean producer, cut its forecast for its 2018-19 harvest to 16.8 million tonnes, from 19.1 million previously, after a dry spell last month.

Emater, the agricultural research body in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil’s No. 3 soy state, also warned of agricultural losses, citing excessive rains.

‘Miles and miles’

Traders remained on edge about the U.S.-China trade war. The United States is “miles and miles” from resolving trade issues with the world’s top soy importer, but there is a fair chance the two countries will get a deal, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said.

A 30-member delegation from China plans to come to Washington next week for talks, Ross said, as the world’s two largest economies try to meet a March 1 deadline to resolve their trade disputes.

Looking ahead, U.S. farmers are likely to plant corn on 90.3 million acres in 2019, up 1.3 per cent from 2018, and cut soybean plantings to 84.6 million acres, down about five per cent year-on-year, according to the results of a Farm Futures email survey of 626 growers.

The survey projected U.S. all-wheat plantings for harvest in 2019 at 46.6 million acres, down from the 47.8 million acres seeded for 2018.

— Julie Ingwersen is a Reuters commodities correspondent in Chicago; additional reporting by Nigel Hunt in London and Naveen Thukral in Singapore.

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Russia recently hosted a tour of Algerian officials and plans to send a trial shipment of wheat to Algeria soon, the agricultural agency Rosselkhoznadzor told Bloomberg.

Russian wheat exports to Algeria have previously been limited because of quality issues. If cheaper Russian wheat is successful at gaining more access to Algeria, farmers in Europe, especially France, could lose out.

Algeria is the world’s fourth-largest wheat importer. France is its top supplier.

IGC cuts Australian wheat outlook

The International Grains Council report recently released has cut 1.4 million tonnes more off Australia’s estimated wheat production to 19.1 million tonnes.

Australia produced 21.2 million tonnes in 2017-18, the report stated.

Meanwhile, the IGC report for September increased Russian wheat production to 68.5 million tonnes from the previous estimate of 67 million tonnes.

Total world wheat production for 2018-19 was estimated at 716 million tonnes in the report.

Corn production was forecast at 1.074 billion tonnes globally, up from 1.064 billion tonnes in August.

Soybean production was forecast at 370 million tonnes, up from 366 million tonnes the previous month.

Total grains production was estimated at 2.072 billion tonnes, up from 2.063 billion tonnes in August.

Boost for corn

Scientists have boosted an enzyme called RuBisCO in corn that promises to greatly improve the plant’s efficiency and yield, according to new research released in Nature Plants on Oct. 1.

RuBisCO, scientifically known as Ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase, is an enzyme that helps photosynthesis incorporate carbon dioxide from the air into carbohydrates.

By increasing RuBisCO, the plant’s photosynthetic efficiency improves.

“As we move from the greenhouse and into the fields, we hope to eventually observe improved growth and yield in production varieties,” said David Stern, president of Cornell’s Boyce Thompson Institute, where the research is being carried out.

“Turbocharging RuBisCO has the potential to provide a foundation for profound effects on the corn plant’s ability to mature and produce biomass, especially when combined with other approaches,” he said in Science Daily.

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Corn fell, following wheat, and soybeans also declined after a choppy session.

Chicago Board of Trade December wheat settled down 4-3/4 cents at $4.30 per bushel after dipping to $4.29, its lowest in nearly a week (all figures US$). CBOT December corn ended down 1-1/2 cents at $3.48-1/2 a bushel while November soybeans fell 1/2 cent at $9.84-1/4 a bushel.

Wheat slipped more than one per cent, with the December contract ending lower for the seventh session of the last eight.

Recent strength in the dollar added pressure, making U.S. grains less attractive to those holding other currencies. The U.S. dollar index turned lower, snapping a four-day rally, after early advances.

“The slow export pace in wheat and the higher greenback is weighing on prices,” said Terry Reilly, senior commodity analyst with Futures International.

Reflecting the loss of market share for U.S wheat in Egypt, the world’s top importer, U.S. Wheat Associates, a trade group that promotes U.S. exports, is closing its office in Cairo after about 40 years, a spokesman said on Tuesday.

Egypt has been sourcing most of its wheat in recent years from Russia, which was projected by the U.S. Department of Agriculture to harvest a record-large crop this year of 82 million tonnes.

After the CBOT close, Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) set a tender to buy wheat from global suppliers for shipment from Dec. 1-10. GASC bought Russian wheat exclusively in each of its last three purchase tenders.

The decline in CBOT wheat futures dragged on corn, along with favorable harvest weather in the U.S. Midwest this week. CBOT December corn hovered a few cents above its contract low of $3.42-1/2, set last week.

Soybeans ended lower for a third straight session. The benchmark November contract topped $10 a bushel last week for the first time since July, but has backed down this week, due in part to hedge-related selling.

“The soybean market confirmed its incapacity to stay above $10 per bushel. The return of dry weather in the U.S. will allow farmers to speed up harvest works,” consultancy Agritel said in a note.

— Julie Ingwersen is a commodities correspondent for Reuters in Chicago; additional reporting by Colin Packham in Sydney and Gus Trompiz in Paris.

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“If it turns farther north and hits some of the dry spots in Indiana, Ohio and Illinois that would be a little bit of a game-changer,” said Rich Feltes of R.J. O’Brien + Associates LLC in Chicago.

The U.S. National Hurricane Centre expects Tropical Storm Harvey to make landfall before the weekend. At this point, it looks to strike parts of Texas and Louisiana.

During the week ended Wednesday, corn trended downward, losing 10-1/2 cents to hit $3.42 a bushel in the September contract (all figures US$).

“I think the (crop condition) ratings on Monday will be stable to higher,” said Feltes. “Which confirms to the market that (the U.S. Department of Agriculture) is not likely to bring September corn yields down.”

There are some bearish factors facing the corn market, Feltes said. In addition to weather, large supplies of Russian wheat are starting to pressure North American grains.

“The Russian wheat glut is killing the market and serving as an undertow on corn,” he explained.

He expects corn to trend lower in September, when the market typically puts in its lows.

“I think that we are heading to an area that is $3.40 (per bushel) low, or $3.25 low,” he said.

The November soybean contract gained 13.25 cents on the week to hit $9.35 a bushel.

Demand from China is helping support soybeans, Feltes said, along with expectations that U.S. soybean acres will decline next year.

Bean oil was also sent higher after the U.S. government declared biodiesel exports from Argentina and Indonesia would be hit with countervailing duties.

There also seems to be a great deal of interest from hedge funds for soybeans at the $9.50 mark, Feltes added.

On the flipside, temperatures in the U.S. Midwest have been cooler as of late and scattered rains have helped relieve some of the heat stress that impacted the crop earlier this summer.

— Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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