Lentils are expected to see the largest acreage increase, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Prospective Plantings report, released March 28, which forecast a 39.5 per cent increase in seeded area to the crop on the year at 762,000 acres. If realized, that would be the largest lentil acreage in the U.S. since 2018, and well above the five-year average of 586,000 acres.

“We still have to get it in the ground… but growers are certainly responding to fairly strong pricing for all pulses,” said Tim McGreevy, CEO American Pulse Association and the USA Dry Pea and Lentil Council in Idaho on the expected acreage increases in all pulse crops.

“Lentils in particular are fairly priced, and wheat is not,” he added, noting given average yields, lentils would have the highest returns of all the pulses.

Lentil stocks are on the tighter side worldwide, while India has dropped tariffs on U.S. lentils which has contributed to the strength in that market, according to McGreevy. However, seed availability could be a limiting factor on the increase. Weather conditions through the growing season will also be important to watch going forward, especially as many regions remain on the dry side.

While rotational issues often mean that increases in one pulse crop can come at the expense of other pulses, McGreevy pointed out that all the major pulses grown in the U.S. are expected to see an increase in seeded area this year.

Chickpea acres in the U.S. are forecast to increase by 15.2 per cent on the year, at 429,000 acres, according to the USDA. That would be the largest acreage base since 2019.

Edible bean planting intentions at 1.316 million acres would be up by 11.5 per cent from 2023, with about half of the intended acres slated for North Dakota.

Pea area in the U.S. is forecast to increase by about one per cent on the year, at 974,000 acres.

—Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg. 

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Only lentils saw an increase, rising slightly by 0.4 per cent from 2021-22 to now 4.32 million. Meanwhile, dry peas fell 11.8 per cent at 3.37 million aces, with edible beans down 32.1 per cent at 297,000.

Chickpeas pulled back 4.2 per cent at 177,800 acres and fababeans dropped 45.7 per cent at 72,300.

However, Mike Jubinville of MarketsFarm Pro stressed a notable element in the StatCan surveys: their timing meant the numbers provided by farmers are what they hoped to plant in 2022 and may not be what they actually seeded.

“We will not know further acreage-loss changes until December, but I believe that total number is roughly 1.5 million acres,” Jubinville said.

He spread that 1.5 million mostly between spring wheat and canola each, accounting for 500,000 acres, and expects dry peas to lose another 100,000. Pulses such as lentils and chickpeas were seeded in a timely fashion, so he’s not expecting any notable changes for those.

Other pulses, such as fababeans and edible beans, may have lost some planted acres due to the soggy soil conditions throughout the Red River Valley in Manitoba, he said.

That said, he pointed to another factor on which the markets will focus.

“The market sentiment will be all about yields, getting bigger or smaller than previous ideas,” he said.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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Green peas are currently $10-$11 per bushel, which he said is a decent price; he also expects green pea acres to remain steady in 2020 compared to the previous year.

The price for yellow peas has risen along with a greater demand coming from China and India, McManus said.

“The price might drop a little with seeded acres, but [prices] have been higher in the last couple of years,” he said.

Prairie Ag Hotwire reported the price for green peas slipped 50 cents per bushel in the last month. Meanwhile, the price for yellow peas gained 38 cents per bushel during the same period.

Statistics Canada, in its May crop area report, projected Canadian farmers this spring would plant 4.28 million acres of dry peas, which would mark a decline of 1.24 per cent from 2019.

The bulk of Canada’s dry peas are grown in the West, with Saskatchewan projected to account for 2.29 million acres, followed by Alberta at 1.74 million; then it’s Manitoba at 171,800 acres and British Columbia at 52,100.

In the East, Quebec is expected to have the most acres at 13,200, then Prince Edward Island at 4,000.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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Top-end green pea bids have lost about a dollar per bushel over the past month, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire data.

“A lot of the end users are full now,” said Kris Moric, a broker with Johnston’s Grain in Calgary. He said green peas were trading at around $10 a bushel picked up on the farm, with not much interest from buyers or sellers.

Moric expected there was still a fair amount of green peas in the bins that would move if prices were right, but growers now appear to be waiting for a recovery.

The yellow pea market is relatively quiet, according to Moric, with a large carryover keeping a damper on prices. “At this point, feed markets are stronger than the edible market on yellow peas,” he added.

Looking to the new crop, Moric said there was some talk of switching yellow acres into greens, but the increased risk of growing green peas may limit any shift.

Overall, he said, there was not much new-crop pricing going on yet, with buyers still focused on speculating on the old crop.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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“Peas will become the next successful crop in Manitoba. Thank you for believing in the future,” Eichler tweeted.

Part of the minister’s optimism stems from global corporate giant Roquette constructing the world’s largest pea processing plant at Portage la Prairie. When operation starts, expected in the second half of 2020, the $400 million plant will be able to process approximately 125,000 tonnes of peas per year. That’s more than the 104,800 tonnes of peas grown in Manitoba last year.

For 2019, Statistics Canada projected dry pea acres in Manitoba to drop 8.6 per cent to 77,700. Although that’s the third most acres in the country, Manitoba’s crop is a fraction of the peas grown in Saskatchewan and Alberta.

In Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s May outlook for principal field crops, pea production has been projected to increase by nearly 420,000 tonnes, to four million tonnes for the 2019-20 crop year.

When the Roquette plant is built, Eichler expects Manitoba’s pea production to increase.

“Currently, Roquette is expecting to contract 60 per cent of their peas right here in Manitoba, which was originally higher than company expectations,” the minister said in an email to MarketsFarm.

One specialist with Manitoba Agriculture predicted pea acres in the province will reach 100,000 acres in 2020 and balloon to 300,000 in the following years.

Given China’s ban on canola imports from Canada, Eichler said it’s good there will be more value-added processing in Manitoba to provide farmers with more confidence in making planting decisions.

“There will always be a demand for peas worldwide. Peas are such a versatile commodity. With peas being high in protein and Manitoba looking at becoming the protein supplier of choice, grain companies will always be able to find and assist farmers with different ways and tools to market their product,” he said.

— Glen Hallick writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting. Includes files from Melanie Epp for Glacier FarmMedia.

Table 1. Pea production, in thousands of tonnes.

Table 2. Projected pea area, in thousands of acres.

Source: Statistics Canada.

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Green peas usually trade at a premium to yellow peas due to higher quality specs and concerns over bleaching, but the current price spread is rather wide.

“There are very few green peas around, and a market that’s looking for them,” said broker Dale McManus of Johnston’s Grain.

Yellow peas were currently priced at $6.50-$7.25 per bushel delivered, he said, and green peas nearly double that at $11-$12.50 per bushel.

Top-end green pea prices have risen by about $4 per bushel over the past year, while yellow peas held relatively steady, according to pricing information from Prairie Ag Hotwire.

In addition to tight supplies of green peas, there is also a relative abundance of yellow peas as they were harder hit by trade restrictions with India.

The latest estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada predict farmers will seed a similar amount of peas in 2019 than the 3.6 million acres planted in 2018.

McManus agreed the area would likely hold steady, but expected the large old-crop premium for green peas would see green peas take up a larger percentage of the acreage base.

While yellow peas will still account for the majority of pea acres, an increase in green pea area “will have an effect on the price come fall,” said McManus.

New-crop green pea bids of about $7.50-$8.50 per bushel are only slightly above yellow peas at around $6.60-$7 per bushel, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire data.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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Roquette raised eyebrows this week when it said it would build the plant in Portage la Prairie, Man., rather than in Saskatchewan, which grows 14 times more peas.

The plant would consume the equivalent of nearly all of Manitoba’s current pea production.

Family-owned Roquette picked Manitoba for reasons that include transportation links and access to hydroelectric power, said spokeswoman Carole Petitjean.

“We are confident that, in good collaboration with local farmers, local production in Manitoba will increase substantially in the next five years,” she said in an email.

Petitjean did not say how much Roquette expects Manitoba pea production to grow but said the plant would process more than 100,000 tonnes of the crop annually once it opens in 2019.

The company previously noted it also expects to source up to 150,000 tonnes for processing at facilities in France.

Roquette will also rely on neighbouring Saskatchewan, Petitjean said.

The Manitoba plant is expected to help meet fast-growing demand for vegetable protein in food and pharmaceutical products. Pea protein, extracted from yellow peas, is used in nutrition bars, soups, sauces, pasta, biscuits and meat alternatives.

Canada is the world’s biggest pea producer.

Manitoba grew 164,200 tonnes of peas last year, the most in 14 years, but a fraction of Saskatchewan’s 2.3 million-tonne crop, according to Statistics Canada.

Francois Labelle, executive director of Manitoba Pulse and Soybean Growers, said price would determine how much more peas farmers will plant. The crop could displace sowings of wheat, canola and soybeans, Labelle said.

Compared to Saskatchewan, Manitoba has many other crop options, he said, also noting edible beans and corn. Past disease issues and poor yields have also led to reductions in Manitoba’s pea area over the years, he added.

That said, “when you have a local buyer, it’s always easier to attract crop,” he added.

It’s unclear whether the plant will stimulate more Manitoba pea output, with soybeans also becoming a more popular choice for farmers, said Brian Clancey, publisher of agriculture website STAT Communications. But Roquette probably will not have trouble finding enough supply, he said.

Regina-based AGT Food and Ingredients, a major pea processing competitor, does not buy many peas from Manitoba, said CEO Murad Al-Katib.

“Roquette announcing that (plant) is great for western Canadian pulse growers, and ultimately you can’t ignore the trend,” he said. “Gluten-free, high-protein, high-fiber non-(genetically modified) ingredients are viable food.”

— Rod Nickel is a Reuters correspondent covering the agriculture and mining sectors from Winnipeg. Includes files from Phil Franz-Warkentin of Commodity News Service Canada.

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Demand from India, China and Bangladesh is strong and that means total pea area could hit four million acres, said Carl Potts, executive director for Saskatchewan Pulse Growers. Canadian farmers planted nearly 3.8 million acres to peas in 2014, according to Statistics Canada.

“Demand from those areas has been strong, particularly in the first part of the crop year,” said Potts. “We’ve had record exports on a monthly basis and moved a lot of product out.”

Most old-crop supplies are already accounted for while demand from India is expected to continue into next year, said Dale Risula, Saskatchewan’s provincial specialist for pulse crops in Regina.

“Demand from Asia, particularly India, has already put a serious dent in the amount of old-crop Canada still has available,” he said.

“What we’re seeing right now is pea prices being relatively strong compared to other crops,” said Potts, noting an expected increase in yellow peas would likely mean a slight decrease in green varieties this time around.

According to Prairie Ag Hotwire, spot prices for green peas and yellow peas were $7.50 to $8 per bushel as of Monday.

Demand from Chinese markets is also on the upswing, Risula said.

“China uses it to process it for the starch and makes noodles. It’s a growing market in China that’s been growing every year,” he said.

The problem facing producers over the past few year, the majority of whom live in Saskatchewan, has been chronic root rot, both Risula and Potts said.

“Lots of producers still face problems with root rot and other diseases so there is a lot of consideration in growing faba beans instead,” Risula said.

Those concerns are echoed by Potts, who said he’s hoping for a dry spring.

“I’m hoping we can get the crop in early and don’t have massive rains that create conditions for root disease,” he said.

Spring weather will likely play a large factor in how many peas are planted, Risula said.

“If it looks like it might be a drier year, I think a lot of producers will once again stick with peas, because they’re used to growing them, they know how to grow them.”

— Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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