Areas north of Prince Albert and northwest of Kindersley, as well as inside and around Hudson Bay each saw more than 30 millimetres of precipitation. However, the southeast quarter of Saskatchewan only received trace amounts. Since April 1, the entirety of the province received 200 mm or less with the communities of Leader and Outlook getting less than 75 mm.

Across the province, cropland topsoil moisture was rated at 13 per cent adequate, 49 per cent short and 38 per cent very short. For hay and pasture land, 11 per cent had adequate moisture, 42 per cent was short and 47 per cent was very short. Five per cent of pastures were in good condition, 28 per cent were fair, 42 per cent were poor and 25 per cent were in very poor condition.

Soybeans had the best crop conditions by far at 80 per cent good, while the next best were oats at 39 per cent good to excellent. Winter wheat and spring wheat were 37 and 35 per cent good to excellent, respectively. Canola was at 35 per cent, peas at 32, lentils and canary seed were both at 29, and barley and chickpeas were both at 26. Fall rye was rated at 23 per cent good, while flax was 23 per cent good to excellent. Durum (16) and mustard (13) were the two worst crops.

Crop damage was attributed to drought stress, heat, grasshoppers and gophers.

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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“It does not look really good at the moment. We are going to see below normal rainfall and warmer than normal temperatures during that time period,” Lerner said, noting there’s to be one major rain event midway through the week of July 17 over what he called “a moisture-stressed environment.”

The problem on the Prairies is the last several weeks, he said, is that “there’s been no moisture feed into the region. The storm will be big for western Alberta and northern Alberta. But as that storm system moves across the heart of Prairies…it’s going to run through a lot of dry air. By the time it gets to the east side of Saskatchewan, it’s going to be falling apart.”

Lerner forecast warm temperatures in the leading up to the storm and then after the storm there’s to a ridge of high pressure for several days afterward.

“We will lose all of that moisture in a day or two,” he said.

Lerner added there will likely not be any other major storms passing through the Prairies for the rest of July, but only series of scattered showers at best.

“From a spring wheat and canola perspective, it doesn’t look good,” he said.

The U.S. northern Plains were in much the same boat, particularly Montana, North Dakota and the northwestern area of South Dakota, according to Lerner. However, conditions were not as bad for the eastern half of South Dakota and a good portion of Minnesota.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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The persistence of westerly winds over the Arabian Sea, the increased depth of those westerly winds to the middle of tropospheric levels, and increased cloudiness in key areas were behind the forecast.

The monsoon onset comes while Cyclone Biparjoy intensifies in the Arabian Sea, which will keep the monsoon in a ‘weak’ state until the storm dissipates, according to forecasters.

The southwest monsoon typically runs from June 1 through September as it advances northward and accounts for about 70 per cent of India’s seasonal rainfall. The late start this year may delay the planting of some Kharif season crops, with the IMD also forecasting below average rains for June.

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So far in May, growing areas of the province have not seen any significant precipitation, according to Dennis Lange, industry development specialist for pulse crops with Manitoba Agriculture.

Dry beans, he said, are the last pulse crop farmers have been planting in Manitoba and are about 75 per cent complete as of Tuesday.

“They were rolling along very quickly,” he said. “They only got going early last week.”

As for field peas, he said, planting is pretty much finished for this year and they got off to a good start.

“Emergence has been quite good this year. There’s been good soil moisture even though we have not had any significant rainfall this May,” Lange said, noting earlier-planted field peas were at the third to fourth node stage.

Planted area estimates from Statistics Canada put field peas for the province at 185,300 acres, compared to 188,600 in 2022-23, he noted; planted dry bean acres are expected to shrink to 115,800 from last year’s 125,400.

While field peas benefitted from better soil moisture levels, Lange said some dry bean growers are planting a little deeper than they normally would, down to 1.5-1.75 inches rather than the usual 1.25-1.5.

“Any deeper than two inches, it takes too long to come out of the ground,” Lange said.

Farmers’ other option, he said, has been to plant dry beans at normal depths and hope rain comes in time.

Prices for dry peas have held steady for the past month, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire. Old-crop green peas remain at $12.50-$14.50 per bushel delivered and new-crop is at $12-$12.81/bu.

Old-crop yellow peas stood at $9.95-$12.80/bu. with new-crop at $9-$10.30/bu.

Among dry beans, white navy were at 52-55 cents/lb. for old-crop and 43.5-46 cents/lb. for new-crop. Pinto beans were at 47.5-50 cents/lb. for old-crop and 43.5 to 46 cents/lb. for new crop.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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Small-seeded crops, such as canola, have garnered particular concern from agronomists and producers worried about germination, given power dry topsoil across much of the province.

Why it matters: Canola timing has created a dilemma this year as producers don’t want to waste their seed treatment window in soil too dry to germinate, but there’s little in the forecast to suggest a more moist seed bed in coming weeks.

According to SMOS satellite data, reported as part of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s Canadian Drought Monitor, saturated surface soil moisture sat over 10 per cent below normal across much of Manitoba during the month of April. Almost all agricultural regions in the province were in severe to extreme drought, the monitor reported, as of the end of April.

Conditions have led some agronomists to urge producers to wait for better moisture or risk running out the clock on their seed treatment.

Common best practice puts effective seed treatment window at three weeks post-seeding — stretching perhaps to four, under poor feeding conditions for flea beetles, according to Manitoba provincial extension entomologist John Gavloksi.

Plants that have not yet reached the three- to four-leaf stage at that point are still vulnerable to economic levels of damage.

It’s an issue Manitoba producers have run into in the not-so-distant past. In 2019, Manitoba Agricultural Services Corp. reported a spike in reseed claims, partially driven by flea beetle damage in early-seeded canola. Cold, dry weather that spring hindered germination and stressed plants with frost.

“The reality is anything that really is going to keep the plants either from germinating or from growing vigorously as a seedling is going to increase the risk of flea beetle injury,” Gavloski said.

Weather models, however, have cast doubt on the chance of rain should farmers choose to wait.

“That’s making it very tough this year to make that call,” Gavloski said. “At some point, you have to get the canola in the ground. In an ideal world, you would get a rain within a few days of that seeding, but that may not happen this year.”

Justine Cornelsen, agronomist with the Canola Council of Canada at Virden, Man., says producers are starting to chase moisture when seeding, and the first priority for many is to simply get it in the ground.

“I’ve kind of been telling people that we are still the middle of the month. We’ve got an open forecast. If you can, try to time it with the rainfall,” she said, although she acknowledged rain is far from certain.

Producers should also scout to know how far down moisture is on their specific fields.

“For canola seed, if you can set it on moisture, it will still germinate and get going,” she said. “We’re at the point now in the province where our soil temperatures are nice. If you’re into moisture and you’re seeding now, that canola should come up and out of the ground relatively quickly.”

From there, though, growth will slow if crops do not get rain, she added.

“It’s going to take a little while for that rooting system to really reach down,” she said. “My other concern is, if you look at the forecast, we’re supposed to be like 30 C, so really, really hot in already-dry conditions is going to stress out that crop.”

Into that, she added, flea beetles are “here and ready to eat.”

Producers can, however, set themselves up for success with the right plant population, according to the agronomist.

The Canola Council of Canada recommends a target of five to eight plants per square foot.

Cornelsen urged producers to proactively scout and know their plant stand to know how much grace they have before plant losses fall below that range.

“Look at the damage,” she said. “If you’re seeing extreme damage, if they’re starting to take plants or you’ve reached that 25 per cent defoliation, that’s where that (foliar) application should happen.”

It is difficult to gauge how heavy flea beetle pressure will be this year, Gavloski added, since little crop is out of the ground. At the same time, however, he added, the province has seen chronically high levels of the pest regularly, and it is reasonable to assume that similar challenges wait this year.

— Alexis Stockford is a reporter for the Manitoba Co-operator at Brandon, Man.

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“Where are prices going to go? In any given year that’s challenging, especially in this year,” said David Derwin, analyst for PI Financial in Winnipeg.

“That has a lot to do with the weather, because very often these weather-driven rallies tend to peak at the end of June and the beginning of July.”

Very dry conditions across much of the Prairies have posed a challenge to canola producers this year. In some cases, it’s not only the topsoil that lacks sufficient moisture, but also the subsoil reserves.

While Statistics Canada has called for 21.5 million acres of canola to be seeded this spring, the dryness in Western Canada could lead to reduced yields if rain doesn’t come in time.

“Moisture at seeding time doesn’t make or break it. You can still have pretty good crops if you get good rains over the next few months after seeding,” Derwin said.

That, he said, brings producers to another factor: having patience while not being complacent.

“You want to be ready to look at hedging strategies. Options are playing a very important role in the marketing of grain this year, because it’s not just the price factor…but options can help manage the production risk and delivery commitment.”

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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Areas in southern Manitoba and southern Saskatchewan have experienced at least six months of drought conditions, according to CDM’s drought assessment as of March 31 — and March did very little to provide any additional soil moisture.

“Approximately 47 per cent of the Prairie region was classified as (at least) Abnormally Dry (D0),” the assessment said, defining D0 as a dry-weather event happening once every three to five years. “This includes 93 per cent of the region’s agricultural landscape.”

One of the driest areas in the country is located in south-central Manitoba, including the communities of Selkirk, Gimli, Portage la Prairie, Carman and Morden. Another extremely dry pocket surrounds the southwestern Manitoba communities of Boissevain, Killarney and Melita as well as the area east of Carnduff, Sask.

Those pockets are considered to be experiencing Extreme Drought (D3), representing a drought event to occur once every 20 years or more.

“Snow water equivalents have been close to zero mm for many weeks throughout the winter, indicating a lack of moisture for spring melt. Furthermore, indicators suggest substantial dryness and a lack of moisture in the past five years in this area. The lowest possible standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) value was also reported across much of the region in the last 365 days,” the assessment added.

Most of western and southern Manitoba, as well as areas south of Regina and in southeastern Saskatchewan, are considered to be having Severe Drought (D2, once every 10 to 20 years).

Meanwhile, the far southeast corner of Manitoba, the rest of southern Saskatchewan (including Saskatoon) and a stretch in Alberta including Edmonton, Red Deer and Lloydminster are having Moderate Drought (D1, once every five to 10 years).

According to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, most of the southern parts of the Prairies have received 85 per cent or less precipitation than normal since Sept. 1, 2020. The Interlake and southwestern regions of Manitoba, as well as areas southeast of Edmonton, have received less than 40 per cent. In areas around Edmonton and in southern and eastern Saskatchewan, 40 to 60 per cent normal precipitation had fallen.

However, the news wasn’t all bad in central Alberta, according to the assessment.

“Although precipitation throughout the winter was significantly limited, the substantial moisture received throughout the 2020 growing season helped to buffer impacts from this winter’s lack of moisture. For this reason, although Edmonton reported its second driest March on record, drought surrounding the city remained relatively unchanged,” the assessment said.

— Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.

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“Looks like the overall pattern isn’t going to be changing too much,” Scott Kehler of Weatherlogics said.

“What you see is what you’re going to get,” Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc. concurred, adding Manitoba is likely to experience severe thunderstorms while the most of the Prairies should remain warm and dry.

“We’ll see significant rain in some parts of the province,” he said, noting there could also be strong winds causing damage.

Kehler said there could be some rain in various parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan as well, especially their northern and central growing areas. But for the most part the two provinces are to remain drier than Manitoba.

Both said cooler air will move across the Prairies over the weekend, further reducing the chances of additional rain. Going into the following week, they forecast the region to remain dry for the next seven to 10 days.

“Outside of the [above] thunderstorms, we’re probably not going to get any rain-producing systems coming through,” Kehler said.

The Canadian Drought Monitor from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) indicates a few pockets across the Prairies that are abnormally dry and moderately dry.

Those pockets are to the north and southwest of Winnipeg, east of Regina, the southwest corner of Saskatchewan and south of Calgary.

The weekly crop reports from the three provinces indicated the heat has aided crop development prior to harvesting.

— Glen Hallick writes for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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Since snow coverage has been variable across the Prairies so far in 2020, however, the growing season may get off to a rocky start.

“If we take a look at rainfall over a three-month period, since Nov. 1, [the Prairies] have been drier-biased for winter precipitation,” Drew Lerner, president of Kansas City-based World Weather Inc., said at Ag Days in Brandon.

According to the Palmer Drought Index, there are two “pools” showing drier-biased weather conditions: one stretches from northeastern Saskatchewan into northwestern Manitoba and the other is in southern Alberta.

“That area continues to have significant moisture deficit and will continue to for a while longer,” Lerner said, though he mentioned it’s “not necessarily a crisis” because many of those areas received some moisture before the ground froze.

“A dry winter is not necessarily an omen,” he said, emphasizing many areas of the Prairies are free of drought conditions. Southern Manitoba, in particular, may see a spring flood.

“There’s been a lot of moisture in southern Manitoba, and that’s a concern because of the Red River,” he said. Substantial snowfall in the U.S. Red River basin could result in flood conditions north of the border come spring, particularly if the spring thaw occurs very rapidly.

“Spring is going to be cooler than normal,” he said, but conditions will warm up rapidly, resulting in a quick melt.

Springtime weather in the Prairies is expected to be cooler than average, based on the 18-year cycle and ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska.

“Oceans have a huge role to play in weather,” Lerner said. “What happens on the West Coast is critical to our growing season.”

Warmer-than-average ocean temperatures impact the jet stream across the Prairies, which influences how weather moves from west to east. “By looking at similar situations, we can try to predict what’s going on,” he said.

In 2005, for example, the Gulf of Alaska showed similarly warm temperatures, and the Prairies had a cooler spring. In 2020, a ridge of high pressure could result in cooler weather, particularly in the eastern Prairies.

“Soil temperatures will not rise as quickly as we want,” Lerner predicted.

He also cautioned Prairie producers to “not get too far ahead” come springtime.

“We might get some nice weather in April, but there’s high potential for freezing in May.”

— Marlo Glass reports for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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“As long as there’s enough moisture to germinate, they immediately grow a really deep root system,” said Ben Friesen of Scoular Canada.

While Statistics Canada estimated the 2019 sunflower acreage to remain pretty much flat from 2018 at 70,000, Friesen believed actual planted acreage may be slightly higher than reported, based on producers making last-minute acreage decisions.

“More acres likely would have been planted, but we ran out of planting seed in Canada,” he said.

All sunflower planting seed is shipped from the United States, based on pre-planned acreage.

Friesen clarified that while all crops are in need of some rain, dry weather is good for sunflower crops. Wetter summers leave sunflower crops prone to more diseases, so “a bit drier is always better than too wet.”

However, past years of below-average moisture have depleted the quality of subsoil, so sunflower producers are still hoping for some rain.

Long-term forecasts for the Prairies predict average to slightly below average precipitation levels.

“We’re hoping for lots of good weather for lots of growing,” Friesen said.

Current prices are steady, with confectionary seed around 30 cents/lb., and oilseed varieties between 22 and 23 cents/lb.

— Marlo Glass writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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