For example, before 2021 ground beef was about $1.00 per pound cheaper than chicken breast, wrote FCC senior economist Graeme Crosbie in a Feb. 11 report. Since mid-2024, the price of ground beef has caught and even surpassed the price of chicken breast in some months.

Chicken prices at retail, farm gate

This rise in beef prices has pushed consumers toward other meats, like chicken and pork. Since 2022, pork prices have risen by more than 13 per cent, chicken prices by almost 22 per cent, and beef prices by nearly 38 per cent, FCC reported on Jan. 28.

Additional demand for chicken has led to higher prices. Fresh or frozen chicken prices rose by an average of 6.7 per cent in the final three months of 2025, FCC said. January to September, they rose 0.9 per cent on average per month.

The rise has been largely independent of farm gate prices in the latter half of the year.

FCC predicted that farm gate prices for chicken will be flat to lower in 2026 as feed costs are expected to remain low.

“Margins will remain positive given strong demand and aforementioned low feed costs,” Crosbie wrote.

Crosbie noted that there’s some concern that avian influenza will hamper producers’ ability to fill demand — particularly in B.C. However, 5.6 per cent more more chicks were placed for broiler production in the latter half of 2025 than in the same period in 2024.

“Assuming avian flu outbreaks are well controlled, this bodes well for production numbers in the first part of 2026,” Crosbie wrote.

Imports of chicken under the Canada-United States-Mexico (CUSMA) and Trans-Pacific (CPTPP) trade agreements reached nearly 100 per cent of tariff-rate quotas for the first time in 2025.

Egg demand, production up

Eggs are also benefiting from demand for economical protein.

While egg consumption per capita has been on the rise since the 90s, there was a “significant jump” in the second half of 2025, said Crosbie.

Specifically, the number of eggs available for consumption rose to 5.54 dozen per person in the third quarter of 2025 from 5.00 dozen per person in the same quarter of 2024.

This “indicates a large increase in production amid slowing population growth,” Crosbie said.

Two opposing forces appear to be in play, Crosbie wrote. There appear to be plenty of eggs available, while there’s only anecdotal evidence of the impacts over the winter of avian influenza on laying flocks.

“Quota allocation may be slowed or altered to begin the year if no significant production capacity was lost,” Crosbie wrote.

“Regardless, the longer-term outlook for egg consumption and production continues to be positive.”

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“It’s very impactful,” said Lorne Voth, president of ProLine Pork Marketing.

“We get more and more guys that are saying, ‘I need Americans. I need American pigs.’ ”

WHY IT MATTERS: Although voluntary on paper, many Canadian pork producers worry that voluntary country of origin labelling (vCOOL) will, in practice, have similar impacts as mandatory country of origin labelling did more than a decade ago.

U.S. voluntary country-of-origin labeling rules were passed in 2024 and take effect Jan. 1, 2026. They will restrict companies from adding “Product of USA” or “Made in the USA” labels to meat, poultry and egg products unless they come from animals born, raised, slaughtered and processed in the United States.

In 2024, the U.S. imported 6.8 million head of live pigs from Canada valued at $779 million, according to data from the Manitoba government.

The province sent 29 per cent of those imports, representing 27 per cent of pigs sold in the province. This included millions of weanlings that are raised and slaughtered south of the border.

Livestock and industry groups are concerned the new labelling rules will discriminate against Canadian animals due to a need to segregate them from American animals, which would be costly and inefficient.

Pigs are moving, but it’s not always easy, Voth said at a Manitoba Pork producers meeting earlier this month.

Voth told the Manitoba Co-operator that a few American processors have said they won’t take Canadian pigs.

He hesitated to say what percentage of processors had opted out but said the packers refusing Canadian animals were concentrated in the Midwest, where some of the largest plants are located.

Packers to the east remain happy to buy Canadian pigs.

“That’s because they’re not full,” Voth said.

“So you’re not full, and you’ve got to fill your shackles, then you’re open.”

Voth said some plants never reopened to Canadian pigs after mandatory COOL rules were repealed in 2015.

The repeal came after a protracted battle before the World Trade Organization.

Manitoba Pork chair Rick Prejet told producers Canada will have to wait until vCOOL takes effect before it can go to the WTO. It will need to prove there have been damages to Canadian meat sectors.

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In an Oct. 23 news release, the association called for the federal government to begin the termination of the Canada-U.K. Continuity Agreement — a temporary trade agreement set up in the wake of Brexit — due to that country’s alleged failure to abide by its terms.

In this case, that means the U.K.’s ongoing refusal to import Canadian beef on the grounds of industry use of growth hormone and an anti-microbial used on meat carcasses. The CCA calls this action a non-tariff trade barrier.

WHY IT MATTERS: Mismatches between Canadian and European regulations have seen the same market access issues rise repeatedly across recent trade deals, from CETA to Canada’s bilateral deal with the U.K., to the U.K.’s pitch to join the CPTPP.

The continuity agreement was intended to preserve the main benefits of the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) after the U.K. left the EU, including Canada’s preferential access to the U.K. market.

The call follows Canada’s tabling of Bill C-13, essentially Canada’s approval of the U.K. Accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). The bill is currently at its second reading in the House of Commons.

One goal of the CCA request is to start bilateral trade negotiations with the U.K. afresh.

“We knew (the U.K.) has already met the conditions with several other countries confirming that accession,” said CCA president Tyler Fulton.

“So we’re really using that tabling of the legislation as the catalyst to return to … bilateral negotiations to address our concerns.”

Although the continuity agreement was conceived as a “bridge” agreement between Canada and the U.K., Britain has retained regulations that echoed those of Europe, which have already proven to be a sticking point with Canadian meat industries.

CETA had initially promised big gains for sectors such as pork and beef. Years later, however, that market access hasn’t materialized, held back by issues such as carcass washes common in Canada but not approved in Europe.

Launched in 2021, the continuity agreement was always intended to be temporary (three years) and presumed to be long enough for the countries to work out their trade differences.

The Canadian government has since sought to revise the bilateral agreement with the U.K., but talks stalled.

The U.K.’s bid to join the CPTPP further raised the temperature of the issue.

Canada’s red meat sector urged the federal government to resist the U.K.’s membership, arguing that, with access issues revealed under CETA yet to be addressed, the U.K.’s CPTPP membership would repeat history.

The CCA, the Canadian Meat Council, the National Cattle Feeders’ Association and, later, the Canadian Pork Council (CPC), formed the “Say no to a bad deal” initiative to lobby on the issue.

Igniting the dispute further was the U.K.’s legal ability to export its beef to Canada, which it did to the tune of $42 million worth in 2024 — a 156 per cent year-over-year increase from $16.6 million in 2023 — while Canada was unable to export any to its shores.

Fulton thinks the proposed dissolution of the continuity agreement could prompt the U.K. back to the negotiation table.

”Without those non-tariff barriers being addressed, we don’t have meaningful access, and so if we terminate the continuity agreement — the temporary, interim agreement — then that should provide the rationale or the motivation to bring the U.K. back to the table so that we can have our issues addressed.”

Regulation dissonance

Part of the trouble on the U.K. side is over peroxyacetic acid, an anti-microbial that Canada uses on meat carcasses to prevent E. coli. The U.K. doesn’t use this on meat, and regulations over the practice have limited how much Canadian meat can land on U.K. shores.

However, it’s considered an important component of Canada’s meat hygiene systems, which the CCA says are recognized as leading-edge procedures throughout the world.

“We’re looking for full systems approval,” said Fulton.

“And in the same way that it’s world-leading and safe and healthy for Canadians and North Americans and people around the world, we want (the U.K.) to acknowledge those systems that are in place.”

Another big wedge in negotiations has been the U.K.’s ongoing application of the EU’s hormone-use ban on Canadian meat, despite a World Trade Organization ruling against it in 1997.

“There’s no science to support their position. It is really a definition of a non-tariff barrier that they are referencing,” added Fulton.

The continuity agreement’s Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS) enables the rights of both parties to take the necessary measures to protect against risks to food safety, animal or plant life or health, the CCA said.

However, it also requires the measures be “science-based, transparent and applied only to the extent necessary to protect human, animal or plant life” so as not to create “unnecessary and unjustifiable” SPS-related trade restrictions.”

Pork in the fray

The Canadian pork industry is in a similar trade holding pattern, not only with the U.K., but also the EU, said Manitoba Pork general manager Cam Dahl. However, in pork’s case, the triggering action has been the EU’s extensive testing requirements for trichinosis.

According to the Mayo Clinic, trichinosis — also called trichinella worms — is a type of infection caused by a roundworm parasite in pigs and other animals. Dahl believes the requirements are dated.

“There hasn’t been a case of trichinella in commercial pork in Canada (for) about 50 years,” he said.

“This is preventing fresh pork from moving from Canada into the EU because of the cost and the time required for testing, and it’s effectively blocking our exports. It’s blocking our exports to all of the EU, but the the U.K. has upheld those conditions.”

Dahl said the CCA is right to draw attention to the U.K.’s meat trade policies, adding they’re compromising efforts to diversify trade.

“When we talk about trade diversification, it’s not just signing new agreements in Asia. It’s making sure the agreements that we have work, and CETA and our trade arrangements with the U.K. are not working for Canadian agriculture.

“So that’s something that needs to be at the top of the agenda for Canadian negotiators.”

Dahl hopes these issues are at the top of the discussion list at the meeting of the EU-Canada Agriculture Committee in Ottawa.

“And I hope that they’re at the top of the list for prime minister (Mark) Carney when he goes to Europe.”

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The paper — released by CoBank, one of the largest private agricultural lenders in the U.S. — focuses on that country’s pork production and consumption, but the North American hog and pork industries are highly integrated. Impacts from the report, if there are any, will spill north across the border.

Nearly a quarter of pigs born in Canada are sent to the U.S. for feeding and slaughter. Sixty per cent of those are weanlings sent to U.S. feeding operations. Canada also exported US$1.7 billion in pork products to the U.S. in 2024 and imported US$850-million worth back.

CoBank says the U.S. industry’s continued reliance on exports to places like Mexico, China, South Korea and Canada — accountable for nearly a quarter of its production — is becoming too risky, given “new trade policies” creating more volatility in global trade.

Even without President Donald Trump’s tariff wars in the mix, trade with China has fallen sharply since the record sales of 2020. Chinese domestic production rebounded faster than expected following a devastating outbreak of African swine fever in 2018. Sales to China in 2024 were less than a quarter of the kilograms sold five years ago.

Bacon has achieved a cult-like following in the U.S. and sausage products have gained appeal, which has doubled market prices for the pork bellies and trimmings used to make them. However, “muscle cuts” such as pork loins and hams are often discounted. They aren’t as convenient and consumers don’t know how to cook them.

“Sluggish exports could mean more pork loins in domestic markets, and U.S. consumers have difficulty cooking ‘the perfect pork chop,’” the report says.

Exports of so-called “variety meats” such as livers, hearts, kidneys, tongues, stomachs, snouts, ears, feet and tails were worth $1.3 billion in 2024, but they aren’t popular menu items in North America.

“Any trade barriers in place for countries that purchase variety meats could cause implications for the U.S. pork sector because those products have extremely limited demand in the U.S.,” CoBank says.

U.S. pork consumption has remained static at about 22 kilograms per capita since the 1970s. Increasing that will be challenging because the parts of the animal the industry currently exports are such a hard to sell to U.S. consumers.

“If the U.S. consumer is to reimagine pork, the pork industry may need to make drastic changes, including recalibrating the genetic hog makeup and showcasing different cuts at retail and through food service.”

Pork industries on both sides of the border have launched campaigns designed to convince consumers they need more pork on their forks. Canadian consumption is much lower than the U.S., about 16 kilograms per capita, but recent marketing efforts have achieved increases of nearly 15 per cent.

CoBank cites Kansas State University research, which names taste as the primary driver for protein purchases. When it comes to animal protein, the flavour is in the fat.

That’s a problem for a sector that heeded previous low-fat messaging and shifted genetic focus towards lean carcass weights, rapid growth and more efficient feed conversion.

“The lean hog formulation that was adopted by the broad bulk of U.S. producers more than two decades ago has largely influenced the pork that U.S. consumers are offered today,” the report says. “This has left something to be desired when comparing pork chops to beef steaks, often with an overcooked chop delivering a bad experience.”

CoBank is signalling a shift in market direction that has obvious implications for the Canadian sector, but it’s unclear how this might play out. Changing the genetic makeup of the hog to bring more fat into the equation needs to be considered carefully, given society’s love-hate relationship with fat.

Teaching consumers more tasty cooking practices combined with changes to how pork cuts are prepared and marketed might achieve the same outcome without compromising pork’s lean nutritional profile.

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All of the major proteins have seen major price increases at the grocery store since November 2020, wrote FCC senior economist Graeme Crosbie in a report published Jan. 22.

Retail chicken prices increased 24 per cent, pork rose 14 per cent and retail beef prices jumped 39 per cent.

However, feed prices have declined since early 2023 and this has put downward pressure on farmgate prices for broilers. This eventually trickled down to retail chicken, Crosbie said. Since early 2024, retail chicken prices have declined 3.7 per cent while pork prices rose 2.2 per cent and beef climbed 9.6 per cent.

Statistics Canada put the average retail price of ground beef at $13.03 per kilogram in November 2024, the most recent stats available. In January 2024, it was $11.16 per kg and made steady increases to peak in October at $13.46 per kg.

Beef striploin cuts averaged $27.65 per kg in November, slightly lower than they started the year, after peaking at $32.04 per kg in September.

Beef cattle supplies are the tightest they’ve been in decades. This, paired with U.S. restrictions on imports from Mexico due to a case of new world screwworm in late 2024, has contributed to record high prices on the futures market.

Pork loin cuts averaged $9.27 per kg in November, StatCan said. They began the year at $8.81 and peaked at $9.53 per kg in March. Pork rib cuts averaged $8.43 per kg in November, up from $7.70 last January. They rose as high as $9.57 per kg in March.

StatCan put the average price of chicken breasts at 12.97 per kg in November after starting the year at $13.05 per kg. The price peaked at $13.82 per kg in May. Chicken thighs averaged $11.49 per kg in November, to rise slightly above the January average of $11.39 per kg. The peak price was $12.53 per kg in October.

“We expect retail chicken prices to remain competitive in 2025 as feed costs should remain low given the glut of U.S. corn available,” Crosbie said.

Crosbie said if the relative price advantage continues, chicken consumption per capita could increase, leading to forecasted increase in production of 1.2 per cent. This despite a projected slowdown or even reversal of Canadian population growth.

Different agencies have predicted different scenarios, Crosbie noted — ranging from a decline of 0.2 per cent in 2025 to an average growth rate of 1.7 per cent over the next two years. His production growth estimate was based on a population growth rate of 0.5 per cent in 2025.

In a report released Jan. 23, the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer suggested that the federal 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan, which reduces targets for permanent and temporary residents, would translate to a 1.4 million fewer residents by the end of 2027.

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The E Butchery on Main, created by Nerbas Bros. Angus, brings direct consumer marketing and vending machines together for the ease of producers and consumers.

“It merges kind of traditional ways of farming and connections to producers but yet incorporates modernization and technology at the same time,” said Arron Nerbas.

Nerbas Bros. Angus, located in nearby Shellmouth, Man., is a multigenerational cow-calf operation where Arron works with his brother, Shane, their families and their parents, Gene and Cynthia.

They work with Cut-Rite Meats Manitoba, an abattoir and meat processing facility near Carberry. Cut-Rite Meats kills, hangs, cuts and vacuum seals the meat in clear packages, and delivers them to The E Butchery on Main. The cuts are then retailed individually.

The cashless, automated, self-serve business is essentially a vending machine where customers can choose meat ranging from a single cut to multiple items. On June 1, Nerbas Bros. Angus announced it had received verbal approval from Manitoba Health for the business, and The E Butchery on Main opened July 15.

Why it matters: A first-of-its kind meat vending machine is bridging the gap between farm and consumer by leveraging technology.

Arron was searching for an innovative way to bring value-added business ideas to their operation, and the new store fits the bill. He was inspired by similar models he saw during a trip to Europe last year. He noticed that self-serve options are more common, particularly for eggs, milk and cheese, in that part of the world.

Arron connected with European farmers and vendors who were using vending machines to sell their products. After researching various options, he chose a machine that could handle the unique demands of selling frozen beef by weight.

“This is allowed for scaling. So, every individual tray is on a scale, and so when you remove the product, it knows exactly what weight is removed,” Arron said.

Setting up the machine presented challenges. The vending industry is typically geared toward smaller, lower-value items, so adapting the technology to handle larger, more expensive products like beef posed several technical and regulatory hurdles.

“There were set-up issues, mostly to do with the vending industry, which is generally set up for smaller amounts,” Arron said. “You take a can of Coke, you take it out, and you’re good. But when you’re setting up for larger dollar items and multiple items in a single transaction, it’s a different story.”

While setting up the business, Arron and his team also dealt with payment processing limits and ensured the machine could handle multiple items in a single transaction.

Community response has been positive and the novelty of the vending machine concept has generated curiosity and interest.

“People have been quite receptive to that,” Arron said. “I mean, I know it’s not going to appeal to everybody, and I knew that from the start.”

He believes the business model offers a valuable alternative for those who want to support local agriculture while enjoying the convenience of modern shopping methods. He envisions this model being adopted by small towns across Manitoba, providing more communities with access to locally sourced meat.

“If this works, why shouldn’t every small town in Manitoba have one? People can come in and get it whenever they want. They can buy one pack of hamburger if they want. They don’t have to buy a whole cow.”

Canada’s food system could benefit by providing people with access to local food at reasonable prices, Arron said. He believes that became clear during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“We need a localized connection. This is an alternative that provides just that.”

The E Butchery on Main is also the next step for Nerbas Bros. Angus along a path of regenerative agriculture and holistic production, Arron said.

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