The May canola contract closed above $690 per tonne and July canola surpassed $700/tonne on Feb. 24, the first time for both contracts in six months. Canola prices have risen $80 since the start of 2026, pacing ahead of their respective 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages.

Canola’s value has risen despite the record crop estimated by Statistics Canada for 2025-26. But while China’s reduction of tariffs on the Canadian oilseed announced last month supported prices, it’s Chicago soyoil’s rally that’s driving canola’s own upswing.

The May soyoil contract has gained nearly 12 U.S. cents per pound or 25 per cent of its value since December, closing at 60.50 cents on Feb. 24. Just like canola, soyoil has exceeded its moving averages since January.

Soyoil’s rise has been driven by optimism over increased demand from the biofuel sector. At the United States Department of Agriculture’s Outlook Forum on Feb. 19, soyoil use in biofuel production was projected to reach 17.3 billion pounds in 2026-27, which would be 47 per cent above the 11.758 billion used in 2024-25. There are expected to be 85 million acres of soybeans to be planted in the U.S. this year, up from 81.2 million in 2025. The USDA also projected soyoil exports to plummet from 2.492 million pounds in 2024-25 to 1.2 million in 2025-26 and 600,000 in 2026-27.

If next year’s figures were to be realized, they would wholly depend on the Trump administration’s biofuel mandate for 2026, which is expected to be announced in the coming weeks.

Even then, canola’s and soyoil’s prices aren’t expected to hold for long.

In addition to both facing resistance levels, the relative strength indexes for canola and soybeans exceeded 70 as of Feb. 24, indicating overbought contracts. Brazil’s record crop will soon flood the global market and add to the soybean crush, despite a slower than average start to the harvest.

While current canola prices are well-deserved for growers left reeling from China’s months-long de facto ban on the oilseed, they will be a brief respite from the price pressures soon to come.

The post It’s Your Business: Rising canola, soyoil prices won’t last for long appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

With a “head and shoulders” pattern developing on the charts, a move down to the March low of $580 per tonne is possible if support fails to hold at $600. On the other side, nearby resistance can be seen at the 20-day moving average around $620.

Canola prices may have found some reprieve from harvest pressure and a lack of demand from China through some bargain-buying, but the main driver was spillover from a rising Chicago soy complex.

CBOT November soybeans and December soyoil found their own support levels at US$10 per bushel and 50 U.S. cents per pound, respectively, but a social media post by U.S. President Donald Trump on Oct. 1 saying he’ll talk to Chinese President Xi Jinping about China’s lack of purchases later this month rallied the market. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also hinted at an announcement on Oct. 7 regarding assistance for soybean growers.

Both Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney want to discuss soybeans and canola, respectively, with Xi, but they have their own matters to deal with. Trump is in the middle of a federal government shutdown resulting in thousands of furloughs and firings, while Carney needs to find support from other political parties to pass the federal budget next month and avoid a non-confidence vote. Oilseeds won’t be on top of their respective agendas.

We can only wait and see if canola’s and soybeans’ rallies have lasting power. Manitoba and Saskatchewan still have approximately 25 per cent left of their canola harvests to complete and should be finished in a matter of weeks. At around the same time, South America’s soybean crop will come off the ground and enter the market, resulting in a new round of Chinese soybean purchases and less demand for U.S. soybeans worldwide. Will oilseeds continue getting support or will their rallies turn out to be dead cat bounces on the way down?

The post It’s Your Business: Canola, soybean strength could be short-lived appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

Most-traded March canola RSH5 settled up $8 per metric ton at $619.80 (all figures throughout in Canadian dollars).

January canola RSF5 settled up $11.60 at $620, putting it at a slight inverse to March, suggesting strong nearby commercial interest. May canola RSK5 rose $6.70 to $625.40.

Canola’s rise comes as buyers have moved in while farmers have backed off sales. Farmers tend to sell less in the last weeks of December if their fiscal year ends on Dec. 31, and then sell more heavily in early January.

“The speculative trade, the small and the large speculative traders, are coming in here on the canola,” said trader Jerry Klassen of Resilient Capital. “With a bit of commercial demand and the speculative trade, along with limited farmer selling, it gave the market the room to have a strong close.”

Chicago Board of Trade soyoil futures BOv1 fell 0.89 per cent but stayed within a range holding since Dec. 18, and above 40 cents per pound.

MATIF rapeseed COMc1 rose gently through the daily session before shooting high into the close in thin trading. It rose 1.76 per cent for the day to close at $534.75 but hit $550 in late trading.

Malaysian palm oil futures FCPOc3 rose slightly, continuing the previous day’s reversal of a six-day downturn. POI/

The Canadian dollar stayed weak and under 70 cents in value versus the greenback as political uncertainty swirls around the federal Liberal government.

—Reporting by Ed White

The post ICE canola futures jump on speculative buying appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

“Canola has been showing good independent strength,” said Ken Ball of PI Financial in Winnipeg on the recent runup in the market. He said commercial end users increasing their coverage and speculators covering short positions on expectations for weather issues accounted for some of the buying interest that took values to their nearby highs.

However, widespread rains across the Prairies saw the market take back some of that weather premium. Farmer selling also picked up on the recent strength.

“The uptrend in canola is still intact,” said Ball, although he added that the potential for a large carryout and likelihood of a good crop in 2024 could lead to problems with burdensome supplies.

Statistics Canada reported Tuesday that canola supplies in the country as of March 31, 2024, came in at 8.3 million tonnes, which was up by about 1.3 million tonnes from the same point the previous year. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada is currently forecasting ending stocks for 2023/24 of 2.0 million tonnes, but the current slow export pace could see that number increase.

From a chart standpoint, November canola is facing an upside target of C$700 per tonne, according to Ball. While the favourable weather conditions may limit the upside potential, activity in outside markets, such as soyoil, could provide support. European rapeseed has also stayed strong recent, due to cold and wet conditions for the crops there.

—Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.

The post ICE canola weekly outlook: Uptrend intact, but watching weather appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

“The general trend is still pointing downward, but we’ve been hovering around this C$600 level for a month now,” said commodities investment advisor David Derwin of PI Financial in Winnipeg.

“It’s getting closer, but perhaps not quite yet,” said Derwin on whether the lows were in yet, adding that if values managed to stabilize around the C$600 per tonne level for another month he would be more confident that the downtrend was broken.

The May contract traded just above the C$600 per tonne mark on March 6, but settled slightly below that level at C$598.90 per tonne.

While increased farmer selling on any moves higher would keep a lid on the upside, Derwin noted that many producers were already well sold on their canola. Supportive seasonal price trends, such as weather news during the spring planting season, also often underpin values at this time of year.

Statistics Canada releases its first planting expectations for the upcoming growing season on March 11, with average pre-report expectations calling for a slight decline in seeded canola area from the 22.1 million acres planted in 2023. However, opinions are divided, and some analysts expect canola area could still be up on the year.

The post ICE canola showing signs of stabilizing appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

As of March 28, the net managed money short position in canola futures came in at 63,005 contracts (79,922 short/16,917 long), a decrease of about 12,000 contracts from the previous week.

Open interest in the canola market came in at 296,705 contracts on March 28, which was down by about 14,000 from the previous week.

An analyst expected to see more fund selling over the next few weeks, especially given the recent rally in crude oil, as fund traders will want to exit the May contract ahead of its expiry.

At the Chicago Board of Trade, fund traders were holding a net long of about 98,400 contracts in soybeans which was down by 13,000 from the previous week. Meanwhile, corn was showing a net short of about 13,400, which was down by 32,000 from the previous week.

In wheat, the Chicago soft wheat market reported a net short position of about 92,600 contracts. The fund position in Kansas City wheat was near even money, after showing a net short of about 10,000 the previous week. In Minneapolis, the fund position was also balanced, with managed money traders holding close to 11,000 contracts on either side of the market to post a net long of 278 contracts.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.

The post Canola short position finally subsiding appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

Canola, he explained, has generally done the opposite of the Chicago soy complex — which the Canadian oilseed normally follows.

‘ICE canola’s May contract on Tuesday lost about $38 per tonne at one point, he noted, and while it regained a good amount of strength, closing with a $9 loss, the soy complex remained weaker.

“Canola is really a dysfunctional future right now,” Palmer said.

“The funds of course are long on canola. They got spooked. They liquidated a good chunk of their position yesterday.”

There has also been very little farmer selling, according to Palmer. Farmers are essentially out of old-crop canola, but are holding back about 10 to 20 per cent of it in hopes of cash prices hitting $30 per bushel. Price and Data Quotes cited cash prices between $24-$25 per bushel on Wednesday.

Also, he said, only the locals and the algorithms were playing the market — and commercials were not trading, for the most part.

“[They] will only if they buy from the farmers and put in a hedge,” Palmer said, noting the commercials weren’t speculating on the spreads or the flat price.

No one wants to get caught short, he said, especially with such record-high prices for canola.

“There still could be a tremendous squeeze on the July/November spread,” he said.

Going into spring planting, the analyst said the coming crop is based on a successful season with sufficient moisture to produce an average to above-average harvest. Canola, he emphasized, cannot afford another drought on the Canadian Prairies.

“These prices are going to stay here, unless the whole picture changes. That means the war [in Ukraine] gets settled, North American gets a huge crop and you run the funds to the downside.”

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

The post ICE weekly outlook: Canola in its own world, analyst says appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

Concerns stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have sparked huge gains, but there’s very likely a good amount of volatility ahead.

“The market is being really driven by emotions and that just can’t hold,” Anderson said. “Once that emotion settles down, the price will settle down.”

Ukraine and Russia are highly reliant on their Black Sea ports to ship their exports. Ukraine last week indefinitely suspended commercial shipping at its ports and Russian forces have since reportedly captured or were besieging several others.

International economic sanctions, meanwhile, have bitten into Russia’s outbound shipments. Countries including Canada and Britain have already shut their ports to Russian vessels and other jurisdictions including the U.S. and European Union are reported to be considering same.

A number of countries were said to be turning to the E.U. and North America in hopes of filling gaps in their import needs.

Anderson suggested the market could see a number of limit-down days, in a similar manner to the limit-up days experienced during the first part of the week of Feb. 28 for some commodities, such as wheat and soybeans.

Delegations from Russia and Ukraine continued to meet in hope of reaching a cease-fire agreement. However, the chances for such were said to be very slim despite the fighting dragging on.

“These markets are highly overbought due to the war premium that’s going into wheat and crude oil. We got a speculative buying surge that won’t last,” Anderson said.

He forecast a “heavy week of volatility ahead” with prices for all grains and oilseeds.

To that end, Anderson said ProMarket was advising its clients to avoid buying the futures and going with put options instead.

“At least that way your only risk is the put premium.”

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

The post ICE weekly outlook: Analyst sees sharp declines coming for canola appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

While the underlying reality of tight supplies, and the need to ration demand, remained supportive, that story has been propping up the market for some time now and bullish speculators will need fresh news to keep the trend pointed up — especially as canola looks overpriced at these unprecedented price levels.

Flood damage in British Columbia hampered rail movement to the West Coast during the week, but there were already large supplies of canola in storage in Vancouver and weekly export movement was solid in the latest Canadian Grain Commission data. That said, total exports continue to run well off the previous year’s pace, with the domestic crush expected to be the main customer for what little canola is available this year.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada released updated supply/demand tables lowering its forecast for total canola exports in 2021-22 by a million tonnes, to 5.5 million. Meanwhile, the government agency raised its domestic usage estimate by the same amount, to 8.7 million, which would leave projected ending stocks at only 500,000 tonnes.

Statistics Canada releases the results of its production survey on Dec. 3, providing the first on-the-ground reading of this year’s yields after previous reports relied on satellite imagery. Anecdotal reports would place canola production below the already-low level of 12.8 million tonnes forecast in September, which will lead to subsequent adjustments in the supply/demand balance sheet.

The soybean harvest in the United States has wrapped up, while farmers in South America are busy planting their next crop. If any weather issues materialize in Brazil or Argentina during the growing season, that could be the spark North American futures need to stage another move higher. However, good conditions and yield projections could just as easily provide the catalyst for a sell-off. Time will tell on that front.

More pressing in the near term may be bigger swings in global financial and energy markets in response to ever-shifting developments on the pandemic front. A new COVID-19 variant emerging in South Africa sent a shock to world markets on Nov. 26, sending crude oil and stock markets down sharply on concerns that the new vaccine-resistant variant would slow economic recovery efforts. The energy-linked Canadian dollar was weaker as well, which likely tempered the movement in the canola market.

Throughout the pandemic, the adage that ‘people still need to eat’ has generally propped up the agriculture sector, but again, time will tell what the latest news will mean for grains and oilseeds in the long term.

The post Canola futures show signs of peaking appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

“We’re still stuck in a trading range,” said Keith Ferley of RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg.

Activity in outside markets, including Malaysian palm oil and U.S. soybean futures, accounted for some of the movement in the Canadian oilseed within that range.

On the one hand, palm oil futures climbed to record highs during the week, which provided some support.

“Palm oil is the leader and is keeping a bid underneath canola,” Ferley said.

However, bearish yield and stocks data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture weighed heavily on Chicago Board of Trade soybeans during the week, with some of that selling pressure spilling into the canola market.

Ferley said canola was likely lagging soybeans to the downside, though, as the U.S. soybean harvest is only half complete. Meanwhile, the canola harvest is already done, limiting the amount of seasonal harvest pressure in the Canadian oilseed.

From a chart perspective, January canola hit a session high of $924.50 per tonne on Friday and a low of $885.70 on Tuesday, before settling Wednesday at $893.90. Longer-term support comes in around $850 per tonne.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

The post ICE weekly outlook: Canola still rangebound appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.