Canola ending stocks for 2024-25 were forecast at 2.200 million tonnes, down by 300,000 from the September estimate. That compares with the downwardly revised 2.748 million tonnes of canola carried forward from 2023-24. Usage numbers for 2024-25 were relatively unchanged, with exports steady at 7.500 million tonnes and domestic usage down by only 45,000 tonnes from September at 12.128 million tonnes.

Wheat ending stocks for 2024-25 were lowered to 4.900 million tonnes, from 5.050 million tonnes in September. Total Canadian wheat exports for 2024-25 were raised by 100,000 tonnes, to 25.400 million tonnes, which would be in line with the 25.334 million tonnes exported in 2023-24.

October estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in million metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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Ukraine is a global major grower and exporter of grain, vegetable oils and oilseeds.

KSE said in a report the expected sum included losses of crop production, animal husbandry, losses of producers due to export disruptions, as well as losses due to rising production costs and losses due to the need to return land to production.

“The largest share of losses was caused by a decrease in crop production. The total indirect losses due to the reduction in crop production amount to $46.5 billion,” it said.

KSE said crop production decreased both due to a decrease in sown areas and due to a change in production technology, which leads to a drop in the yield of major crops.

Ukraine’s combined grain and oilseed harvest was 107 million tonnes in 2021 but is likely to fall to around 77 million tonnes in 2024.

KSE also said that the second largest category was losses due to export disruption and they are estimated at $24.1 billion.

“The naval blockade imposed by the Russian Federation at the beginning of the invasion, and subsequently the limited functioning of the so-called grain corridor, led to an increase in logistics costs,” KSE said.

Amid the war with Russia, the agricultural sector remains one of the main sources of export earnings for the Ukrainian economy, supplying grain, vegetable oil and oilseeds to foreign markets.

Media, quoting farm ministry data, have said farm exports totalled around $23 billion in 2023.

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The Commission now estimates production of common wheat, or soft wheat, this season at 114.6 million tonnes, down from 116.1 million predicted a month ago and nine per cent below last year’s crop.

It is also the lowest volume since 2012/13, bringing the Commission into line with other recent forecasts of the EU’s main cereal crop.

The EU harvest has been dented in particular by the smallest crop in France in 40 years, as well as a sharp fall in German production as the bloc’s two biggest wheat growers endured repeated heavy rain in the past year.

In monthly supply and demand data, the Commission increased its projection of EU soft wheat imports in 2024/25 by one million tonnes to seven million but left unchanged its soft wheat export forecast for this season at 26 million tonnes.

It lowered its forecast for 2024/25 usable production of maize in the EU to 60.1 million tonnes from 61.6 million in late August, now four per cent below last season’s level.

Maize crops, harvesting of which is under way, have been hurt by summer drought and heatwaves in the east of the bloc.

Estimated EU barley production in 2024/25 was also revised down, to 50.4 million tonnes from 51.3 million a month ago, though that was six per cent above last year’s drought-hit crop.

In oilseeds, the Commission lowered its estimate of the bloc’s rapeseed output this season to 17.2 million tonnes from 18.0 million, nearly 13 per cent below last year’s level.

For sunflower seed, which has also suffered from drought in eastern Europe, the Commission cut its production forecast to 9.5 million tonnes from 9.9 million, three per cent below the previous crop.

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The federal agency issued its monthly deliveries report on Tuesday, showing total deliveries last month came to 5.103 million tonnes, up nearly 15 per cent from the previous August.

Wheat deliveries (excluding durum) tallied 2.936 million tonnes last month, rising more than 14 per cent compared to August 2022. Meanwhile those for durum dipped almost seven per cent from a year ago at 313,576 tonnes.

While canola came in 983,337 tonnes, jumping 29 per cent from August 2022, barley fell just over 13 per cent at 407,530 tonnes.

Table: Producer deliveries of major grains, in millions of tonnes. Source: StatCan.

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Cereals Canada, a national cereals industry group, on Friday reported that Vietnam’s agriculture ministry has released a revised quarantine pest list due to take effect Sept. 29.

The new list, Cereals Canada said, will no longer include Canada thistle — otherwise known as creeping thistle or field thistle — which has been the subject of more-restrictive measures in bulk grain exports to Vietnam for over four years.

Vietnam in 2018 proposed new measures to block grain shipments that arrived with Canada thistle seed, to take effect as of Jan. 1, 2019.

Vietnamese officials warned at the time of “incalculable consequences” if thistle — already an established weed in Canada, the U.S. and Europe — were to get established in that country.

According to the Canadian Special Crops Association, officials in Canada were notified in March 2019 that some wheat and soybean shipments were found to be non-compliant with the new rule.

The result, Cereals Canada said Friday, was that in 2021 alone, Canada’s wheat exports to Vietnam came in at just over 20,000 tonnes, compared to more than 200,000 tonnes per year before the thistle seed restriction was tightened.

“With creeping thistle on the quarantine pest list, Canadian grain cargoes faced the risk of commercial penalty,” Cereals Canada CEO Dean Dias said in the organization’s release Friday.

“This change means that exports of Canadian cereals to Vietnam will be able to resume in bulk shipment for the first time since 2018.”

Dias said Cereals Canada had worked closely with the Canadian Food Inspection Agency, the federal Trade Commissioner Service and the federal ag department to help remove what he described as a “non-tariff trade barrier.”

Once the revised list is in place, however, “we look forward to the resumption of regular cereals trade between Canada and Vietnam.”

Vietnam, which along with Canada is a member of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) free trade bloc, is also billed as Canada’s largest trading partner in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

According to federal trade officials, agriculture and agri-food are considered a “priority sector” in Vietnam for Canadian business. In 2020, Vietnam’s total agri-food imports totalled US$20.9 billion, of which US$302 million came from Canada. Vietnam’s total imports of cereal grains from Canada that year were valued at US$74 million. –– Glacier FarmMedia Network

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The province on May 29 announced the deadlines for grain and oilseed producers to submit their completed RMP applications and make any coverage changes — previously set at May 10 — has now been moved to June 30.

For livestock producers, the deadline to submit applications or request coverage changes, previously extended to April 15 for the 2023 program year, has now also been reset to June 30.

Agricorp, the province’s farm program delivery agency, said May 29 the latest deadline move is meant to “give farmers more time to evaluate their coverage decisions” and more flexibility in making those decisions.

That said, to be eligible for RMP: Grains and Oilseeds, grower customers will still also need to have Production Insurance coverage — the application deadline for which remained May 10.

Ontario’s RMP, set up as a permanent program in 2011, is intended to help farmers manage risks beyond their control, such as fluctuating costs and market prices.

The program is intended as a complement to Production Insurance, which insures against production losses, and AgriStability, a whole-farm ag income stabilization program. — Glacier FarmMedia Network

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In April 2023 more than 3.44 million tonnes of grain were delivered, versus 2.46 million a year ago.

The uptick in deliveries continued to demonstrate the sizeable harvest farmers reaped in 2022. Canola deliveries April-over-April jumped almost 41 per cent at more than 1.22 million tonnes. Those for wheat climbed 30 per cent at over 1.64 million tonnes.

In terms of percentage, the sharpest increase came in barley, which at 285,676 tonnes, almost doubled from April 2022. The smallest uptick was in rye, rising 5.6 per cent at 16,716 tonnes.

Table: Producer deliveries of major grains, in tonnes. Source: StatCan.

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Factoring in Statistics Canada’s latest acreage estimates and its data for stocks as of March 31 — figures both released in the past month — AAFC now forecasts canola ending stocks of 650,000 tonnes for 2022-23 and only 650,000 for 2023-24. That compares with the April forecasts of one million and 1.05 million tonnes respectively.

Total canola production in 2023-24 was forecast at 18.4 million tonnes, which would be down slightly from the 18.5 million tonnes forecast in April but still up from 18.17 million tonnes grown in 2022-23.

For wheat, ending stocks for 2022-23 were lowered to 3.98 million tonnes, from an estimated 4.3 million in April. However, new-crop wheat ending stocks were bumped up by 100,000 tonnes on the month, to 5.8 million tonnes.

Total wheat production in the country is forecast to hit 35.75 million tonnes in 2023-24, which would be well above the April estimate of 34.33 million and the 2022-23 production of 33.82 million tonnes.

Tables: May estimates for major Canadian crops’ supply and demand, in millions of metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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In late October ANSES cleared the use of phosphine tablets used for killing pests through fumigation, but said they could not be “in direct contact with cereals,” thereby threatening exports to some of France’s largest markets, including Algeria, Egypt and Morocco.

The ban on direct contact of phosphine with cereals was due to take effect on April 25.

But after government intervention, ANSES amended the authorization on Thursday to include a reference to an EU regulation that says that maximum residue limits for pesticides do not apply to non-EU country exports if it is possible to demonstrate that the treatments are required or accepted.

Grain exporters group Synacomex praised the move.

“Synacomex welcomes the fact that the European regulation is being respected, allowing French cereals to continue supplying customers who rely on us,” said Christelle Tailhardat, Synacomex’s secretary general.

The pesticide is still not permitted in direct contact with cereals for European Union destinations, the document showed.

If inhaled in large doses, phosphine can cause respiratory, neurological and gastrointestinal disorders.

Canada allows the use of phosphine and similar fumigants in stored commodities, but a 2015 re-evaluation by Health Canada’s Pest Management Regulatory Agency added a requirement for buffer zones of at least 50 metres between treated storage and spaces occupied by people or livestock.

Canada’s buffer zone rules, in place since July 2016, also apply to stored commodities on ships while in port, and to fumigated rail cars parked at terminals or during “prolonged stops” en route.

— Reporting for Reuters by Sybille de La Hamaide and Gus Trompiz. Includes files from Glacier FarmMedia Network staff.

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In late October ANSES cleared the use of phosphine tablets used for killing pests though fumigation, but said they could not be “in direct contact with cereals,” thereby threatening exports to markets that require the process, including Algeria, Egypt and Morocco.

“There is nothing to worry about for exports, these will continue. It’s good for our exporters, it’s good for food security of these (importing) countries,” Trade Minister Olivier Becht said, adding that steps would be taken by April 25 when the ANSES decision takes effect.

France intends to refer to an EU regulation that says that maximum residue limits for pesticides do not apply to non-EU country exports if it is possible to demonstrate that the treatments are required or accepted, Becht said.

France will act at the request of importing countries that require the molecule, Agriculture Minister Marc Fesneau told Parliament.

He said that EU countries including Germany and Bulgaria were also using the pesticide on grain exports to Algeria.

If inhaled in large doses, phosphine can cause respiratory, neurological and gastrointestinal disorders.

The questions in Parliament followed a weekend report by l’Opinion newspaper that said French grain exports would come to a halt from April 25.

With the deadline looming, French grain producers had called for a swift response from the government.

“We are depriving ourselves of a quarter of the outlets for French cereals,” Eric Thirouin, head of French grain growers group AGPB, told Reuters.

Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, will be the main beneficiary if the ban is confirmed, Thirouin added.

Exports put at risk by the ANSES decision amount to about four billion euros (C$5.91 billion) in trade surplus, compared with a total grain trade surplus of about 11 billion euros last year, he said.

Canada allows the use of phosphine and similar fumigants in stored commodities, but a 2015 re-evaluation by Health Canada’s Pest Management Regulatory Agency has required buffer zones of at least 50 metres between treated storage and spaces occupied by people or livestock.

Canada’s buffer zone rules, in place since July 2016, also apply to stored commodities on ships while in port and fumigated rail cars parked at terminals or during “prolonged stops” en route.

— Reporting for Reuters by Sybille de La Hamaide and Gus Trompiz. Includes files from Glacier FarmMedia Network staff.

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