That was Janice Gross Stein’s message March 8 in an opening address to the Canadian Crops Convention in Ottawa. The noted political scientist and founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy at the University of Toronto said the era of “globalization on steroids” is firmly over.

“Great power competition is back. It’s back with a vengeance,” she told conference attendees. “There’s at least a decade ahead of us before I think the world finds its feet again, as great powers find their feet again, and learn to compete — but compete in ways that we have rules of road.”

Why it matters: Many pine for a return to normal after the pandemic, but it may be a vain hope as the world changes.

In historical perspective, she compared it to the postwar years when the Soviet Union and Western powers learned to live together. The 1950s and 1960s were rocky, but relations got smoother as the rules were ironed out.

“I say I am a long-term optimist, but I am predicting a lot of turbulence in the next 10 years,” Gross Stein said.

Shifting world

Since the 1990s the world has gotten used to ever-increasing globalization through trade agreements. Now the trends are running in a different direction. Global trade has been falling, in fits and starts, since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008.

Farmers can rely on two key international bodies. There’s the World Trade Organization, which sets the rules for trade and mediates disputes, and there’s the Codex Alimentarius, a collection of internationally recognized standards published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United nations. Both are in disarray.

“Both are dysfunctional right now,” Gross Stein said. “The WTO is paralyzed. The Trump administration refused to appoint judges for tribunals and there’s no dispute resolution mechanism. And Codex is paralyzed right now by political disputes. In this world of crumbling international regulation, where is it moving? To regions.”

That’s why so many national governments have concentrated their recent efforts on bilateral and regional trade pacts. Canada is no exception. It has signed significant bilateral and regional trade deals and continues to pursue more.

“Markets are regionalizing,” Gross Stein said. “You’re all global exporters. But now you’re exporting into regional markets. That’s the shift.”

It’s in Canada’s national interest to play the ground game, she said. That means boots on the ground, and not just political leaders or government officials. U.S. industry groups are meeting with key markets every two weeks, she noted.

“It’s all about showing up,” she said. “Show up once, then again, and then again, and then you have to show up again. It’s the single most important prerequisite of success.”

Canada’s top agriculture trade partners are the U.S., Mexico, China and Japan, Gross Stein noted. The Indo-Pacific region is a crucial area for future growth because it comprises young and dynamic countries like Malaysia, the Philippines and India.

But the major institution under construction in the region is the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework or IPEF. It’s often overlooked because it’s not a trade deal, it’s a standards setting body. That’s precisely why engaging with it is so important, said Gross Stein.

“If IPEF isn’t in your sights, you’re missing the standard-setting body that’s going to determine the standards for everything that moves into the Indo-Pacific region. Those standards are very important.

“China uses safety. They never talk about tariffs or political issues when they deny market access. They always focus on standards and health and safety. I don’t need to tell canola growers that.”

She also noted the Indo-Pacific is “code” and was first used by the late Shinzo Abe, former prime minister of Japan and victim of a political assassination in summer 2022.

“Why? Why the Indo-Pacific? Because he wanted a region over China, one broadened to include India,” she said. “All the institutions that are being stood up now do not include China. We are drawing lines. The world is drawing lines.”

Double down

In this fast-changing trade environment, Canada’s farm groups must continue what they’ve been doing, but do more of it.

“You need to double down on supporting your sectoral councils,” she said. “You need to give them the muscle they need to do their work and build up their expertise on these markets. They can work with government. I know how frustrating this can be to accomplish, but we are growing our presence in the Indo-Pacific.”

Gross Stein also noted the federal government is taking action. It has established a trade hub in Singapore and she’s been told to expect an agri-food and agri-technical hub based on a similar model.

“At this point, what they’re discussing is where,” she said.

They’ve also begun to engage the U.S. government, hoping to find ground for a common front on shared issues.

“If we co-ordinate with the U.S., we can punch well above our weight,” Gross Stein said, adding the government will invest in two ways; directly and partnering with sectoral groups.

“This is an opportunity waiting for you to take advantage of it,” she said. “The government is all in on this, and it’s bipartisan, by the way. They next government won’t be any different, because this is where the growth is.”

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Yet, like any champion, it must watch for challengers and head them off. At present, China’s rise on the global stage troubles Washington. A few decades ago, it was the Soviet Union.

But will future contenders for superpower status be much closer — specifically, north of the U.S. border?

The British Empire ended in the mid-20th century when it was outmanoeuvred not by one of its longtime rivals, France or Germany, but rather by its ally, the U.S.

Could Canada do the same?

Canada’s population is just a fraction of its southern neighbour’s, but Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government has announced an ambitious plan to bring in 500,000 immigrants each year by 2025.

The majority will be young and selected via merit-based criteria that give priority to education and workplace skills. Canada’s population in relation to the U.S. has also been increasing for decades; in 1950, Canada only had nine per cent as many people as the U.S.

Canada and the U.S. are roughly the same size, both accounting for 6.1 per cent of the world’s land mass. Much of Canada’s land at present is cold, barren and largely uninhabitable. But climate change has made Canada’s landscape more temperate and suitable for agriculture and other activities, a trend expected to continue in the decades to come.

In some ways Canada is already a superpower. Its economic output is the eighth largest in the world. The seven countries with larger economies have bigger populations than Canada. Even with a short growing season and relatively small area devoted to agriculture, Canada is the fifth largest exporter of agri-food and seafood products.

But economic strength is only one measure of a global power. Another is having the resources that others need. In that regard, Canada is extraordinarily rich in natural resources, including clean water. Regardless of future economic, environmental and technological trends, the country will be an energy and natural resources superpower.

Two other elements are needed for superpower status: a political system that provides strong governance and a national culture that’s appealing to its own citizens and to people around the world.

Canadian politics prizes stability and moderation, both hallmarks of a superpower. Social change occurs with few ideological battles. For example, becoming the first developed country to legalize the use and sale of recreational cannabis happened with scant controversy or social division.

Even on expanding the scope of medical assistance in dying legislation, Canadians have remained civil, with all stakeholders willing to listen to each other.

Superpowers are not only countries that dominate in various spheres, but also countries that command the aspiration of — and provide inspiration for — people around the globe. For two centuries, the U.S. has made its national dream one that others around the world sought to attain. American-style democracy was the gold standard.

This is now less and less the case. The “city on a hill” acting as a beacon of hope for others has morphed in recent decades into a selfish “America-first” environment.

American citizens have grown disillusioned by their polarized politics, while outsiders question the excesses that drive U.S. capitalism. Donald Trump’s years in the White House have left many dismayed about the future of their country and widened the divisions between Republicans and Democrats.

As neighbours, Canadians shake their heads in wonder at the inequities, lack of public health care, lax gun control and debates over abortion and immigration that dominate and divide American politics.

Canadian culture, shaped by the country’s history of being a fragment of both the British and French empires, has aspired to promote equality, both between individuals and groups, although it’s failed in its abysmal treatment of Indigenous peoples.

Nonetheless, in an age of globalization and demand for greater personal freedoms, Canada’s multicultural policies are a beacon of hope in a world often scarred by religious, ethnic and tribal battles.

Much like when the U.S. steadily assumed the role of unchallenged superpower from Great Britain during the first half of the 20th century, it might be that Canada gradually becomes a great power this century — perhaps first as a partner to the United States, but then increasingly supplanting its neighbour.

For many around the world, such a transition would be preferable to other scenarios, such as China or Russia assuming more dominant roles in global affairs.

A shift in global power relations would occur at a leisurely pace and with minimal disruption.

In 1776, with a population of 2.5 million, few imagined that within two centuries, the U.S. would become the dominant superpower. It’s not inconceivable that Canada could perform the same feat by 2223.

– Thomas Klassen is a professor in the School of Public Policy and Administration at York University.

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French farmer José Bové, an anti-globalization activist and outspoken critic of the Canada European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), had been invited to Canada by the Council of Canadians, the National Farmers Union and other groups and was scheduled to speak at a public forum that evening in Montreal.

However, his detention, which required he check into a hotel and fly back to France the following day, meant he could not attend the event.

That prompted an outcry about political interference to suppress someone from speaking in opposition of CETA. Bové was in Canada at the same time as French Prime Minister Manuel Valls was visiting to promote the trade deal.

“Is the case for CETA on such thin ice that it can’t withstand free speech?” Maude Barlow, national chairperson of the COC said in a news release.

Bové was sent to his hotel, with his passport confiscated and told he would have to leave Canada the following day. However, a few hours before boarding his return flight to France October 12, he was granted a temporary permit to remain in Canada for seven days.

That enabled him to attend another event as keynote speaker, the Council of Canadians’ Groundswell conference in St. John’s October 14, as originally planned.

However, in a statement the Council of Canadians said many questions remain about why Bové was to be expelled in the first place and how that decision was reached.

According to a Canadian Press report Bové said CBSA agents had initially told him he was being refused entry because of his criminal record stemming from convictions related to incidents in the late 1990s and early 2000s, including one for vandalizing a McDonald’s restaurant and another for a protest against genetically modified organisms.

Bové said he told the CBC that “was strange because he has been to Canada many times before without issue.”

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Three German activist groups handed in 125,000 signatures to the court in August in opposition to the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), which they fear will undermine workers’ rights and worsen standards for consumers.

Campact, Foodwatch and More Democracy argue CETA breaches Germany’s constitution because parts of it can come into force even before national parliaments have had their say.

They want to stop its implementation before official ratification by all EU states.

The court is due to rule on the emergency appeal on Thursday. A ruling in favour of the complaint would make it unlikely that Brussels and Ottawa could sign the accord at a summit on Oct. 27.

Austria’s chancellor has expressed strong objections to CETA and said on Monday the court’s decision would have a strong influence on whether CETA goes through.

German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel last month overcame left-wing resistance in his Social Democrats (SPD) party to CETA. He has said the agreement is the West’s chance to shape the rules governing globalization.

Asked what a ruling in favour of the petitioners would mean, he said outside the court: “This would be a catastrophe for Europe.”

In a week’s time EU trade ministers are due to vote on CETA, which requires unanimous support. The European Parliament would also need to vote to allow it to go into force.

It would also require ratification from national, and some regional, parliaments to go fully into force. A trade agreement with Korea took effect provisionally in 2011 but was not fully ratified until four years later.

“The German government must acknowledge the massive protests and should not approve CETA, even if the mass legal complaint is rejected by the German constitutional court,” Katja Kipping, head of the Left party, told the RND newspaper chain.

“CETA accelerates globalization instead of regulating it in a sensible way,” Anton Hofreiter, head of the pro-environment Green party in parliament, told RND.

Southern Belgium is set to block the deal, while backing from Slovenia remains uncertain.

Hungary may put the agreement to a parliamentary vote, while Romania has said its support is conditional on Canada agreeing a separate deal to allow visa-free travel.

–– Reporting for Reuters by Ursula Knapp and Caroline Copley.

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A study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Columbia University showed production losses caused by high temperatures, predicted to rise further with climate change, now spread more easily from one place to another as they ripple through global supply chains.

In just a decade, the susceptibility of the world’s economic network to heat stress — which causes workers to tire quickly among other physical effects — has doubled, researchers found.

This is because production has become more interlinked since the turn of the century, said co-author Anders Levermann, a top climate change expert at the Potsdam Institute.

The first decade studied, from 1991 to 2001, did not suffer increased production losses, in contrast to the decade from 2001 to 2011, he noted.

“Weather extremes are not really factored into the thinking of a lot of industries, and in particular not weather extremes far away,” he told the Thomson Reuters Foundation. “But our study shows it’s really one world with respect to climate impacts.”

The researchers looked at the effects of small daily disruptions to production from extreme temperatures leading to heat stress among workers in construction, agriculture and other economic sectors.

They covered economic flows between 26 industry sectors and final demand in 186 countries, running computer simulations of heat-stress consequences to find out more about how production losses are propagated along supply chains.

“It is really a global phenomenon — whichever sector… is hit by weather extremes is going to have the same response, the same problem,” said Levermann.

The researchers said the findings, published in the journal Science Advances, pointed to the need for societies and businesses to adapt to more intense weather extremes.

For example, they could make better use of insurance against production failures or expand their pool of suppliers, Levermann noted. But for that to happen, there must be greater awareness of climate change and its effects on the global economy, he added.

Flood link to climate change

Work is underway, meanwhile, to strengthen evidence on the links between extreme weather events and climate change.

This week, scientists collaborating on the World Weather Attribution (WWA) program concluded that human-caused climate change played an important role in the heavy rains that pounded parts of France in late May and early June, triggering flooding and destruction.

The probability of three-day extreme rainfall in this season in France has increased by at least 40 per cent because of global warming, they said.

For the Seine river basin, it is likely to happen roughly 80 per cent more often than in the past, and for the Loire around 90 per cent, they added.

But there were no conclusive results from a similar analysis of late-spring thunderstorms in Germany, they noted.

In parts of central and northeastern France, historic flooding of rivers led to widespread power outages and forced Parisian landmarks such as the Louvre art museum to close. The deluges are reported to have killed at least 18 people in Germany, France, Romania and Belgium, the WWA team said.

“These latest lethal floods in Europe illustrate the rising impact of extreme weather events, including (on) developed and well-prepared countries,” said Maarten van Aalst, director of the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre.

“Sadly we saw that even advanced infrastructure and water management cannot prevent some areas and neighbourhoods being overwhelmed and people sometimes dying.”

— Reporting by Megan Rowling for the Thomson Reuters Foundation, the charitable arm of Thomson Reuters, covering humanitarian news, women’s rights, trafficking, corruption and climate change.

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That’s the outlook in a recent report out of Australia, highlighting five megatrends expected to impact the agricultural sector in the coming decades.

Rural Industry Futures: Megatrends impacting Australian agriculture over the coming 20 years was compiled by the country’s Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation (RIRDC), together with the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), in an effort to draw out the longer-term trends that could impact rural industries going forward.

While the report focuses on the Australian situation, the opportunities and challenges presented can be expected to have a similar impact on the Canadian agriculture sector.

A “megatrend” is defined in the report as “a trajectory of change that will have profound implications for industry and society.”

Each megatrend is interlinked with the others and has its own supply and demand side implications for the agricultural sector, according to the report.

The five megatrends in the report include:

1. A hungrier world: Global populations are rising while land devoted to agricultural production is shrinking. That will create increased demand for good and fibre from those countries with exportable supplies.

2. A wealthier world: Average annual incomes are also rising as more people are expected to move out of poverty, with diets shifting away from staple subsistence foods to higher-protein options. This creates opportunities for diversification and new markets.

3. Choosy customers: The desire for healthier food options is expected to grow, with expectations on ethical and environmental factors also becoming a larger factor in customer choices.

4. Transformative technologies: Advances in genetics, materials science, and digital technologies will alter how food is grown and how it is transported. In addition to production improvements, increased traceability and advances in food manufacturing are expected.

5. A bumpier ride: Climate change and the increasing globalization of the world economy have the potential to create new and deeper risks for farmers, according to the report.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow CNS Canada at @CNSCanada on Twitter.

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Responding to questions at an unrelated event in Winnipeg last week, Agriculture and Agri-Food Minister Gerry Ritz said Canada has put forward strong proposals regarding supply management when it comes to TPP negotiations. On July 21, the U.S. government publicly criticized Canada in an open letter, saying it was, “unwilling to seriously engage in market access discussions regarding dairy.”

“We consider the proposals we’ve put forward balanced in scope and we want to make sure those who export have the ability to export,” Ritz said. “And under the supply-managed system we recognized the value that it brings to the Canadian economy, we make all these arguments at the negotiating table, we don’t do it in public, nor does any other country for that matter.”

The exception to that rule may be the United States, which has put continuing pressure on Canada regarding supply management, particularly around the country’s dairy industry.

“Certainly we don’t tip our hand in public, they may think that’s a good way to negotiate; I don’t,” said Ritz.

The minister did say that Canada is paying close attention to products the U.S. regards as sensitive, such as sugar. He also noted that U.S. subsidies have not a free pass during talks.

“We point out the realities of what other governments do under the guise of helping,” said Ritz, referring to the U.S. Farm Bill.

But some of the U.S. farm programs have been grandfathered in by the World Trade Association, making them difficult to address directly.

Despite the hurdles ahead, Ritz was optimistic that Canada would be party to the agreement.

“There are a number of countries that want us at the table, including Japan,” he said. “I was a little concerned when I saw their trade minister say there’s two countries that may not make it into the end game, I don’t think Canada is one of them… the Mexicans like us at the table, the Japanese like us at the table, as do a lot of the other countries.”

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It’s the second-largest manufacturing sector, the leading employer and through the recent recession “proved to be remarkably resilient in both revenue and employment compared to other manufacturing industries,” notes the report by David Sparling and Erin Cheney.

“This is an industry that Canada has been able to count on for both GDP and jobs,” it adds. “While it may not be as exciting as high technology and aerospace, in a recession being steady and unexciting is something to get excited about.”

Yet it doesn’t get the attention it deserves from government.

“Although food manufacturing is important to Canada’s economy and farmers, it has received very little focus from policy-makers,” the Ivey report points out. “Attention needs to come, not only from agriculture and agri-food departments, but also from economic development, trade and industry-focused ministries. Food is intrinsically linked to agriculture, but the business of food is first and foremost a manufacturing and marketing industry.”

Government must give the sector the respect its economic position has earned it, the report continues. “Policies and resource allocations for food manufacturing should not be integrated with, and masked by, primary agriculture’s business risk management policies, which continue to be the primary focus of provincial and federal agri-food policy.

From the Alberta Farmer Express website: The battle over GM labels drags on, but most consumers couldn’t care less

The report said government policies must encourage exports with trade agreements and assistance to make food companies become more globally competitive and export ready. “Exports can also be supported through government trade programs and by creating regulatory regimes that are aligned and co-ordinated with those of major trading partners.”

The Ivey report was prepared in collaboration with the Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute which is studying the state of the sector. In a recent analysis, CAPI pointed out that the food-manufacturing and beverage sector ran up a $6.8-billion trade deficit in 2013 largely led by increased wine and salsa imports and the closure of many foreign-owned food plants.

Chris Kyte, president of Food Processors of Canada, praised the efforts of CAPI and the Ivey Business School to shine a spotlight on the food industry. “We look forward to working with policy-makers to grow this industry to higher levels of performance.”

The report said food manufacturing could be a powerhouse industry for Canada with its access to farm products, large markets, transportation networks and a consistent track record. Economic conditions are moving in favour of the Canadian food-manufacturing industry, with the world slowly recovering from the recession and the Canadian dollar drifting lower.

“If Canada is to continue to reap the economic and employment benefits of a healthy food-manufacturing industry, government must take notice and act,” the report said.

One challenge facing the sector is its inability to improve its productivity in recent years “and that creates concerns over the ability of food manufacturers to compete in the long term,” the report noted.

The industry has been trying to reorganize “to be a strong player on the global stage and retain its competitiveness.” Between 2006 and 2014, 143 Canadian food plants closed resulting in projected losses of almost 24,000 jobs. Yet overall net employment in the industry remained the same. Ontario was hardest hit by closings while Quebec’s picture was more positive.

The report describes the closures as evidence “of an industry in transition rather than one in decline,” says David Sparling, chair of Agri-Food Innovation at the Ivey Business School. “Almost 90 per cent of closures occurred in multi-plant companies, largely the result of companies reorganizing and consolidating production in fewer large plants to achieve greater scale and efficiency. The results are leaner operations, higher productivity and stronger companies better equipped to compete.”

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“As the face of Canada truly changes, so does its eating habits,” Jeff Kroll, senior vice-president, supply chain management for McDonald’s Canada told a Cattlemen’s Young Leaders (CYL) seminar hosted by the Alberta Livestock and Meat Agency (ALMA) last month.

Kroll, an ALMA board member, said McDonald’s, like other successful enterprises, must change with its customers.

“The Canadian consumer landscape is changing. Canada’s demographic environment is changing, driven by two things. One is an aging population, and population growth fuelled by immigration.”

Members of those groups are less interested in what propelled McDonald’s to the top — burgers and french fries. Kroll said an aging population is increasingly concerned about health and wants more fruits and vegetables.

While most people still associate beef with burgers, that trend is slowly changing, in part due to immigration. Kroll says two-thirds of Canada’s visible minorities are of Asian descent, and cultural preferences are shaping buying decisions.

“When selecting meats, Asians are more likely to choose pork, poultry and fish and the overall decline in beef consumption suggests that Canada’s changing demographic profile is an influence on the proteins that Canadians are eating,” said Kroll. Also, Canadian tastes are becoming more eclectic, and in the last 10 years, more are experimenting with new spice sensations, especially ginger, garlic, basil and curry.

Taste — and information

With 33,000 restaurants in 119 countries, McDonald’s has a lot at stake, and part of protecting and even growing its market share depends on market intelligence. To that end, McDonald’s conducts regular market research to stay ahead of the curve.

“Canadians are very consistent in what they want,” said Kroll. And what they want, he says, is taste. “But in addition to taste, they want to be educated about the food they are eating. They want to learn about the food, they want to know where it comes from and that the company they are buying from is concerned about societal issues.”

Kroll said three of five consumers say it is very important that the meat used to make their burger is sourced from animals that were raised without the use of steroids. More than half say it’s important that their burger patty is made from meat that is hormone and antibiotic free. Kroll said these concerns have risen considerably in the past two years, especially over antibiotic use. It’s a trend any large retailer is going to be watching closely — if consumers become serious about hormone and antibiotic use, there would be serious ramifications for the livestock industry.

“Managing desires for natural and fresh products needs to be balanced with the ability to offer those options at affordable prices,” said Kroll. Large-volume suppliers like Wal-Mart and McDonald’s would have difficulty even sourcing enough hormone- and antibiotic-free product to meet demand.

Defining “local”

Another new trend is consumer desire for local product.

“Local is an interesting and complex one, because I like to say everything is local to someone, so it’s how you define that local,” Kroll said.

In an effort to satisfy the public’s growing hunger for foods seen as wholesome, gourmet burgers are increasingly adorning drive-thru menu boards across the country. Consumers equate certain brands like Angus, and certain cuts like sirloin as pivotal to a higher-quality sandwich, and specialty cheeses, buns and season ingredients are also prized. This demand for slower, guilt-free, gourmet food is paradoxically at odds with the traditional consumer demand for inexpensive, uniform, high-speed food.

Asked about the fast-food industry’s social responsibility in a time of increasing obesity, the noticeably fit and trim Kroll ultimately passed the buck to the consumer.

“I think it’s all about balance and choice. I have been eating McDonald’s for 31 years — almost every day when I worked in the restaurant,” he said. “For example, just two days ago I had our new McBistro grilled chicken, no sauce because I tailor it to the way that I want it,” he said. “If you want balance and choice, we have everything available to make that happen.”

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Export-oriented agri-food industries are keen to gain access to Europe’s 500 million consumers, but tariffs protecting supply management, genetically engineered crops, and rules of origin are among the most sensitive issues in the talks, according to a committee report based on months of hearings. However, government procurement rules and intellectual property protection will likely make or break the deal in the end, the report predicts.

Pork and beef groups are pushing for duty-free access to Europe. The Canadian Cattlemen’s Association says the protocol for demonstrating Canadian beef conforms with the European requirements and “should be the same as that used for American breeders who export their beef to the E.U. market,” while Canadian Pork International is requesting a tariff exclusion and special tariff rate quota for Canadian pork along with simplified administrative procedures.

Grain and oilseed groups are requesting simplified certification procedures for Canadian grains with a “reasonable” threshold level for genetically modified grain in shipments.

Meanwhile, Europe’s agri-food sector wants improved access for its cheeses and a reduction in tariffs protecting the Canadian dairy sector, the report said.

Both the NDP and Liberals submitted dissenting reports, which included calls to ensure that supply management isn’t watered down through increased access or lower tariffs.

The NDP accused the government of trying to rush through a trade deal before Canadians became aware of the many ways it could damage the country.

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