That north-south line cleaves North America in two from Mexico to Manitoba, as first noted in 1978 by explorer John Wesley Powell, who called it the boundary between the humid East and the arid West.

Now scientists are looking how this partition has played out so far, and what the future may hold. They confirm that the divide has turned out to be very real, as reflected by population and agriculture on opposite sides.

They say also that the line appears to be slowly moving eastward, due to climate change and will almost certainly continue shifting in coming decades, expanding the arid climate of the western plains.

“This concept of a boundary line has stayed with us down to the current day,” said Richard Seager, a climate scientist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “We wanted to ask whether there really is such a divide, and whether it’s influenced human settlement.”

Powell noted correctly that the western plains are dry in part because they lie in the rain shadow of the Rocky Mountains. Seager’s team identifies two other factors. In winter, Atlantic storms bring plenty of moisture into the eastern plains, but don’t make it far enough to moisten the western plains. In summer, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico moves northward, but that also curves eastward, again cheating the west.

Now, the researchers say, warming climate appears to be pushing the divide east. In the northern plains, rainfall has not changed much, but higher temperatures are increasing evaporation.

The post Where the Great Plains began? appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

I took a look at the monthly data for the major centres across the Prairies in regards to temperatures and precipitation over the last three months. Below are the results. I have ranked or ordered the results in several different ways.

The first table below on the left is ranked by overall mean or average temperatures during May, June, and July. Looking at the table you can see that overall, Saskatchewan was the warmest, followed by Manitoba and then Alberta.

The second table on the right (see above) reorders our locations, based on how much each site’s average temperature differed or deviated from the long-term average temperature for that location. Looking at this table we see that Alberta is now the warmest region, with Saskatchewan coming in second and Manitoba last.

The third table below on the left looks at precipitation and I have ordered the data by the total amount of precipitation that fell at each location. Looking at the data you can see that the regions that saw the most rainfall were the more northern regions of the agricultural Prairies, with southern Alberta and southern and central Saskatchewan seeing the least precipitation.

Reordering the data on the right (see above) to show rankings comparing total precipitation to the long-term average for each location, or how much each station differed from their respective average, you can see that Regina has been remarkably dry compared to average, with a deficit of 137.5 mm of rain. Calgary also comes in very dry compared to the long-term average. The order then changes up a little bit with both Brandon and Winnipeg, which were higher on the list of total rainfall, now coming in as the next driest compared to average.

Hopefully this helps to shed a little bit of light on what has been going on weather-wise across the Prairies over the last few months. I also hope that looking at the data in a couple of different ways helps to put things into perspective. Regina, no matter how you look at it, has had a hot and dry last three months. Calgary, while dry, was not that warm overall, but compared to average it was the warmest region on the Prairies. So, when it comes to weather, pretty much everything is relative. What is warm in one place can be downright hot in another.

The post A detailed look at Prairie heat and rainfall appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

The province, in consultation with the Manitoba Historical Society, wants to recognize prolonged and meritorious service for heritage preservation Lt.-Gov. Janice Filmon says.

“As we celebrate 150 years of Canada throughout 2017, acknowledging community-minded individuals who devote their time and expertise to preserving and promoting the history of this great nation is especially significant. This year more than ever, I encourage Manitobans to celebrate our past, and work together to make this province – this country – even better,” said Filmon.

The Lieutenant-Governor’s Award for Historical Preservation and Promotion is presented to those with experience in such endeavours as:

• The writing of historical publications and documents;
• Stewardship of museums and archives;
• Raising of public education, advocacy, and awareness;
• Committee or community service;
• Preservation of historic sites/buildings; and
• Art and media.

As the oldest historical organization in Western Canada, founded in 1879, the Manitoba Historical Society (MHS) presents awards to businesses, farms, and organizations that have operated for over 100 years, recognizes important historical books with its Margaret McWilliams Awards and encourages schoolchildren to learn about Manitoba’s past through its Young Historians Awards. It publishes the Manitoba History Journal and operates a comprehensive website with information on all facets of Manitoba history and heritage.

The MHS will receive nominations from the public and will recommend up to five people to receive awards this year. Nominations to be considered for 2017 must be received by Feb. 28. The selected award recipients will be presented at Government House in May.

Nomination forms and further details of the award program are available on the websites of the Lieutenant-Governor of Manitoba (manitobalg.ca) and the Manitoba Historical Society (mhs.mb.ca).

The post History preservation awards on offer appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

The goal is not only to conserve flora and fauna providing esthetic benefits, but improve downstream water quality and reduce flooding and costly damage to infrastructure, Cliff Greenfield, manager of the Pembina Valley Conservation District, told reporters gathered at the Alexander Ridge Park near Miami July 8 after announcing details of the three-year federal-provincial Escarpment Habitat Protection Program.

“It is a very special place in Manitoba,” he said. “We don’t have Rocky Mountains but this 600-foot drop is unique and at risk at this time.”

Rising crop and farmland values have resulted in more natural land converted to annual crop production.

“In this area the RM of Thompson was saying… ‘we have a problem with forested lands being converted to cultivation’ and there’s a real change in the water flow,” Greenfield said. “They experience real problems with roads and bridges washing out — sedimentation of their ditches — and they were wondering what they can do about it.”

“At these prices nowadays, all land has agricultural value,” added Manitoba Habitat Heritage Corporation chief executive officer Tim Sopuck. “Ten to 20 years ago you might have thought that’s going to stay in tree cover because it’s not good farmland. Well, now some of that land has been cleared because there is so much incentive to get every acre of land into production. That’s the reality of the agricultural marketplace.”

The Manitoba Escarpment — part of the western beach of prehistoric glacier Lake Agassiz that once covered much of central North America — runs in this province from the United States border to The Pas. The program will operate along a 15-km strip on either side of the escarpment from the border to Riding Mountain National Park, Greenfield said.

Key is $300,000 in funding — $100,000 a year for three years — from an Environment Canada program to protect habitat.

The escarpment is important to wildlife as habitat and a corridor. It’s home to many common birds, animals and fish from white-tailed deer and ruffed grouse to white sucker. They’re not currently at risk, but will be if their habitat disappears, Greenfield said.

About 75 per cent of the money will go to landowners through either direct payments or tax receipts in return for agreeing through a formal easement on their land title, to leave it in a natural state. Payments are based on a percentage of the land’s assessed value, Sopuck said.

Those who sign still own their land.

“You can graze it, you can hay it, you can cut firewood,” Greenfield said. “The majority of the rights is still with the landowners (and include hunting and trapping). They wouldn’t be allowed to burn, break or drain it basically.

“We are targeting forested lands, grasslands, wetlands — basically any lands that are in natural cover.”

There’s enough money to cover about 2,100 acres of which 1,100 will be preserved and 1,000 restored to a natural state, Greenfield said. However, it’s hoped double that will be saved thanks to landowners who sign agreements without compensation.

The Manitoba Habitat Heritage Corporation and three conservation districts — Pembina Valley, La Salle Redboine and Whitemud Watershed — all of which are funded provincially, are the other partners. They will contribute an estimated $564,000 through in-kind services.

The conservation districts will identify landowners interested in the program; the corporation will handle the agreements. The districts will also contribute by providing grassed waterways, small dams, gully stabilization and tree planting.

Interested landowners can contact their conservation district or municipality.

A similar program limited to the Pembina Valley Conservation District started in 2013.

“This (new funding) will really do new things,” Sopuck told Candice Bergen, MP for Portage Lisgar and minister of state for social development. “It will take work that has been going on in the past to a whole new level.”

About 60 escarpment landowners in the Pembina Valley Conservation District are being surveyed to understand their attitudes about protecting natural lands, Greenfield said. Results are expected this fall.

Greenfield hopes the program will eventually expand to the rest of the escarpment and other steeped-sloped areas.

“We have learned that protecting the environment isn’t just about fossil fuels and some of those more excitable topics,” Bergen said. “It is about protecting where we live and each of us, individually doing our part. I think it’s so easy to… point fingers… but we each have to look at ourselves and see what we’re doing.”

This project is another example of the Harper government’s strong environmental record, she said.

“(We’re) not placating to special-interest groups, or maybe the activists, but doing what actually makes a difference in terms of conservation and environmental protection.”

As for the government failing to meet Canada’s greenhouse emission reduction targets, Bergen said: “We have to balance having a strong economy and having a strong and protected environment. We believe there are ways we can do that. This is a great example. This protects the environment. This is good for the environment. It creates jobs. It creates opportunity for this area.”

The post VIDEO: New voluntary program to protect Manitoba Escarpment appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

“If we see things move ahead fairly smoothly, you could see construction as early as 2016,” said Steve Ashton, who is also Manitoba’s minister of infrastructure and transportation. “There might even be some preliminary construction before then, so I just want to stress, we are very much on track right now towards getting this built.”

Last week farmers, cottagers and homeowners from around the lake gathered at the flooded-out farm of Mark Peters to rally against a reported seven-year timeline for the construction of an additional outlet on Lake Manitoba.

“It’s just a matter of the province making the decision, using their resources, using the technical support and the research from previous years and putting it all together and making it happen,” said Tom Teichroeb of the Lake Manitoba Flood Rehabilitation Committee, which organized the rally.

Ashton said that is exactly what the province is doing.

Following the 2011 flood the province immediately began to examine future flood mitigation possibilities for the lake, he said.

“I think there was some misreporting of the seven years,” the minister said. “We’re into this process now and we’re doing everything possible to do it in a manner that is both comprehensive and timely.”

Building a new outlet for Lake Manitoba also means a new outlet must be built for Lake St. Martin, which has been affected by high water in recent years. Members of Lake St. Martin First Nation were displaced by flooding three years ago and have yet to return home.

A memorandum of understanding between the First Nation and the federal and provincial governments was recently signed that would see the entire community relocated as a result.

Dauphin River First Nation has also been affected by flooding and members of both communities blocked the full operation of the existing emergency Lake Manitoba outlet in protest earlier this month.

The minister pointed out that consultations with First Nations is also a legal requirement under the constitution, calling the process a “very significant factor” when it comes to the construction of the outlet channel.

• Short-term aid, long-term solutions needed

Teichroeb agrees that First Nations must be consulted, but said the province should have begun that process before announcing that two new channels would be built.

“Without a doubt that’s a big issue, these people have been ignored for a long, long time, literally since the Fairford structure came in… so you bet they’re going to have to be compensated and you bet they deserve to be, it’s a big issue,” he said, adding he heard many concerns first hand while serving on the independent Lake Manitoba/Lake St. Martin Regulation Review Committee. That review, in addition to the 2011 Manitoba Flood Review, will serve as the basis for the development of the new outlet channels.

In addition to working with First Nations, Ashton said building the two new outlets may require acquiring land from private owners. He also disputed claims made by Robert Sopuck, MP for Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette that no federal environmental review is necessary.

In an email to Teichroeb, Sopuck stated that changes to the Fisheries Act, the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act, and the Navigable Waters Protection Act mean regulatory concerns won’t affect the outlets.

“It is inconceivable that any of these revised acts could stand in the way of the construction of a new channel. I would note that these acts were no impediment to the construction of the Lake St. Martin Channel in 2011 and would not be an impediment to any new channel,” Sopuck wrote.

Ashton said he was surprised by Sopuck’s comments.

“I was a bit surprised at the tone here; no one is pointing fingers at anyone, we’re just saying that these are steps that have to be taken as part of the approval,” said the minister, adding that while federal acts have been changed, those changes don’t negate the need to assess the environmental impact of permanently altering the flow of water in the province.

Ashton said there is a difference between an emergency outlet, such as was constructed in 2011, and permanent flood mitigation, which must meet more stringent requirements.

Ashton also noted that the emergency channel continues to be operated on an emergency basis.

“We are somewhat limited in its operation. It is an emergency outlet so we do have to be in an emergency situation — essentially flood stage — to operate it,” he said.

The new outlets from Lake Manitoba and Lake St. Martin will allow for greater regulation of lake levels at all times, and could begin operating even before being fully completed.

“This will be the legacy of the 2011 flood. We said we would focus on the hardest-hit areas of Lake Manitoba and Lake St. Martin and we’re living up to that,” said Ashton. “These are permanent outlets that will forever change the flows out of Lake Manitoba and Lake St. Martin.

The post New outlets could begin operating prior to completion appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

“There are some concerns with pasture recovery and just starting up the season next year,” said Trevor Hadwen, agro-climate specialist with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

“In terms of native pasture, the dry fall doesn’t allow the recharge of the soil moisture, which doesn’t allow the plants to prepare as well for the winter as they normally would.”

The biggest area of concern is a region starting in central Alberta and stretching into Saskatchewan, he said.

There are some dry regions in Manitoba as well, but many areas in the south and southwest received some good precipitation this fall.

“The southwest (region of Manitoba) has received quite a bit of rain, getting a few of those storms that were popping up from North Dakota,” Hadwen said.

Though the soil is too dry in Alberta now, it’s likely that things will improve in spring, said Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc. in Kansas.

“We’ve had some snow events already (in Alberta) which helped to pad the dryness a little bit and it kind of suggests that maybe we’ll see some improvement in the spring,” said Lerner. “A lot of the snow that fell will help to keep frost out of the ground, so when we do get into the spring thaw, the moisture will go into the ground fairly quickly.”

It’s still a wait-and-see kind of situation in Saskatchewan, though Lerner said he expects average snowfalls during the first half of winter across Western Canada, and that should keep winter wheat crops covered, he said.

“I think in general, the crop will probably be in fairly good shape,” he said. “There will be some very impressive bouts of cold that will occur, but I think we’ll have sufficient snow on the ground to take care of that. So, when it comes to the spring, we should at least get a fair start to the season.”

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The study used census data from Manitoba to look at factors such as population gain, an expanding tax base, favourable demographics (such as a rising percentage of females aged 20 to 39), and municipal debt levels.

The strongest communities have anywhere from 3,200 to 3,500 residents, plus taxable assessment levels of $130 million or more, said Bill Ashton, the institute’s director and principal researcher.

“There are minimum thresholds that we need to have for a rural municipality,” he said. “Three thousand is what we’re seeing as the threshold for going forward and for ensuring that rural municipalities have enough people.”

The report identifies three municipalities (Lac du Bonnet, Rhineland, and Killarney-Turtle Mountain) and two towns (Neepawa and Swan River) that make the standard set out by the study.

But it’s a tall order for most others. Only 51 of Manitoba’s 197 municipalities have 3,000 or more residents and just 47 meet the recommended assessment threshold.

Alongside economic indicators, a second report from the institute lays out a series of “functional economic areas” that frame a new way of thinking about geographic regions in rural Manitoba.

Eighteen distinct rural regions were identified using census data that mapped people’s commuting patterns, or how far afield people travel from homes to workplaces.

This second report aims to provide a new sense of where geographic boundaries are beyond existing municipal boundaries, Ashton said.

The two reports could help local government leaders in their amalgamation deliberations and give them new ways to think about where future boundaries could be, he added.

“We don’t want to change boundaries every 10 or 20 years, so can we get it right now? That’s where the geography linked with the population thresholds and assessment kind of come together.

“Our research indicates that strong rural municipalities are not islands but rather engines of growth and economic development.”

Both reports were funded by the provincial government and can be found at: http://www.brandonu.ca/rdi/publications/rural-adaptation-and-change/.

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Lowering reservoir levels has created ‘lots of room’ behind the dam while inflow levels are far below what they were two years ago

Despite rising spring temperatures and plenty of snowpack left to melt on the upper reaches of the Assiniboine River basin in Saskatchewan, farmers downstream of the Shellmouth Dam are hopeful they won’t see a repeat of last summer’s crop-destroying deluge.

So far, provincial officials appear to be doing a better job this year, said Cliff Trinder, a rancher near Millwood who has followed the operation of the reservoir very closely for decades.

“They’ve probably done about all they can do with it,” said Trinder. “They’ve lowered it to unprecedented levels, and they’re letting out as much as they can considering downstream interests.”

Even though much of the snowpack still remains, there’s less risk of a 2011-scale flood, said Steve Topping, executive director of hydrologic forecasting and water management for the province.

Inflows to Shellmouth are expected to stay below 11,000 cubic feet per second this year — well below the 20,000-plus rate of two years ago. Officials also brought the reservoir level down to 1,382 feet above sea level, or almost 30 feet below the spillway level, prior to spring.

“Our best guess is that Shellmouth will manage it. We might go over the spillway marginally, but it’s looking like the reservoir will trim the peak substantially,” said Topping, who is in charge of managing the dam.

Last week, outflows were bumped up to around 1,500 cubic feet per second after the level was allowed to rise four feet to benefit the lake’s fishery.

Ironically, the heavy snowpack this year may work in the farmers’ favour by allowing the ground underneath to thaw faster and absorb more of the snowmelt, he added.

“The per cent of the snowpack that is infiltrating into the ground is much higher than normal,” said Topping.

For farmers downstream wondering whether to seed low-lying areas along the Assiniboine, Topping couldn’t offer much in the way of assurances, saying that the risk of summer rainfall events like those seen in 2012 are ever present.

Stan Cochrane, who farms along the Assiniboine near Griswold, said that it’s still too early to predict what the upcoming growing season will bring. There’s so much snow in some parts of Saskatchewan, he added, that a summer flood is still a possibility.

As for his valley acres, he’ll seed his crops as soon as it’s dry enough to get on the fields.

“We’ll just seed them and collect crop insurance,” said Cochrane. “We’ve always said that they’ll do anything to protect Winnipeg and not worry about us. It’s pretty evident that that’s the plan.”

Virden-area farmer Keith Pearn also said he plans to seed whatever land is ready, too.

He’s heartened by “lots of room behind the dam,” but not impressed by talk of restricting flows early on and increasing them later — a situation that he argues constitutes artificial flooding.

“I had a good feeling about last year, but what happened to us at the end of June and July was unbelievable,” said Pearn.

The post Farmers downstream of Shellmouth Dam hope to avoid flooding this year appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

Completed in conjunction with a regulation review of Lake St. Martin and Lake Manitoba, the report makes 126 recommendations, including the construction of a second permanent outlet structure for Lake Manitoba.

But the question of artificial flooding on the lake was not part of the regulation review committee’s mandate, said chairman Harold Westdal.

“We did not study that, however, it was one of those top-of-mind issues that came up at every public meeting,” he said. “I think for the people around Lake Manitoba the answer is pretty simple. As far as they’re concerned there were measures that were taken that knowingly led to flooding on Lake Manitoba and Lake St. Martin.”

Experts consulted by the review committee indicated that it was possible excess water would have found its way into Lake Manitoba even if the Portage Diversion had not been used, following natural channels to the lake once the Assiniboine River overflowed or breached its dikes.

“There was approximately 53,000 cfs (cubic feet per second) coming down the system, the Assiniboine River could safely handle 18,000 cfs downstream of Portage la Prairie the other 35,000 had to go somewhere, and rather than trying to push it down the Assiniboine and having a catastrophic failure, the safe choice was to run it through the Portage Diversion,” said Flood Task Force chairman, David Farlinger.

During normal conditions, the diversion removes a maximum of 25,000 cubic feet of water per second.

During the flood of 2011, the diversion’s capacity was temporarily increased to 33,000 cubic feet of water per second, resulting in the emergency fortification of the diversion. Unlike years past, the diversion also ran for 100 days, rather than the roughly two weeks it usually operates.

Since 2011, $6 million of repair work has been done at the site.

“If that water had not been diverted through the Portage Diversion, there would have been, certainly, a catastrophic failure of the Assiniboine River dikes, some of that water would have found its way through natural channels into Lake Manitoba, but where the water would have gone is a bit of a moot point,” said Westdal.

“For the people who live around Lake Manitoba this is not a technical issue, this is a very emotional issue, they feel it very strongly, and they feel they have taken a significant hit for other people in the province.”

Steve Ashton, minister of infrastructure and transportation, said the province did everything it could with the tools available to minimize damage across Manitoba.

“I want to stress one thing; at no time was there any trade-off of protecting the City of Winnipeg versus rural Manitoba,” he said, adding that he could not say in technical terms whether the use of the diversion caused artificial flooding.

However, he noted overland flooding in 1892 caused significant flooding on Lake Manitoba without diversion structures.

The authors of the Regulation review of Lake Manitoba and Lake St. Martin describe the debate around flooding as, “partially technical (hydrologic analysis), partially semantics and partially perspective.”

A $260-million class-action lawsuit has been launched against the province in relation to the flooding of Lake Manitoba.

One thing all parties agreed on was that the flooding experienced in 2011 was unprecedented and unlikely to be repeated. Damage along some areas of Lake Manitoba was also linked to high winds that coincided with high water levels.

The report recommended lowering water levels on Lake Manitoba for the next five years to allow for the restoration of natural vegetation, as well as better forecasting technology, better communication, new water control structures, updated zoning regulations and new forecasting models.

The post Flood review makes recommendations but assigns no blame appeared first on Manitoba Co-operator.

“We could be into a very rapid melt during which that American water, or water in our tributaries, could meet up against solid ice,” said Steve Topping, director of Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation’s water management division.

“So the ice-jam potential in Manitoba is very high.”

As of last week, 29 kilometres of ice had already been cut and broken along the Red River north of Winnipeg, and the province’s ice-breaking Amphibexes were working on the Assiniboine River at the Portage Diversion and near the Hood Bridge.

Ice breaking is also occurring on the Fisher River, near Fisher River Cree Nation, while ice cutting has taken place on the Whitemouth and Icelandic rivers, said Topping.

“It’s a very aggressive ice-jam mitigation program,” said the director.

The latest provincial flood forecasts predict flooding similar to 2009, when ice jams caused significant damage to homes and properties on the Red River north of Winnipeg.

All of Manitoba’s major rivers have thicker-than-normal ice this year, and much of the province has received more than double its normal snowfall, said senior flood forecaster Phillip Mutulu.

Recent snowfalls have increased the potential for flooding on the Red, Souris, Pembina, Assiniboine, Saskatchewan and Qu’Appelle rivers.

Conditions are better than in 2011 because most rivers are below normal levels and soil conditions were dry at freeze-up, but much depends on how quick the thaw is and whether more snow or rain arrives.

But even with unfavourable weather, some communities hit hard in 2011 are expected to be spared this time around.

Topping said the towns of Souris and Wawanesa are not expected to reach flood stage, and noted diking has been completed around the town of Melita.

Prolonged flooding is not expected on either Lake Winnipeg or Lake Manitoba.

Water levels on those lakes, as well as Winnipegosis, are all below spring 2011 levels. Lake Manitoba is at 811.8 feet above sea level, below its historical long-term average of 812.12 feet.

But water in the three Shoal Lakes, still merged into one body of water following the flood of 2011, could rise as much as two feet this spring, if weather conditions are poor. That would bring lake levels 1-1/2 feet shy of the peak experienced two years ago. Even with dry conditions, the Interlake region could see minor flooding.

Mutulu said soil frost conditions will contribute to overland flooding in some areas.

“In addition to heavier-than-average snowfall contributing to an increased flood risk, cooler-than-normal temperatures have increased the depth of the soil frost,” he said. “Across southern Manitoba, it was frozen to a depth of between 50 centimetres to more than 100 centimetres.”

But Manitoba’s flood defences are stronger than ever, said Steve Ashton, the minister of Manitoba infrastructure and transportation.

“The difference is that year over year we’ve gotten better at mitigation and response, better able to deal with those kinds of floods,” he said.

“So even a flood that may be historic in terms of proportion can often have far less impact than previous floods.”

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